The Oil Drum

27 comments on The Death of Turkmenbashi

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Dave Cohen on December 21, 2006 - 11:34pm

Requiescat In Pace

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petersburger on December 22, 2006 - 12:48am

I am glad Niyazov is gone. Turkmenia became a much sadder, poorer and more oppressed place under his rule. It is really a beautiful country (especially the mountains in the south) with genuine, friendly people who deserve a much better government than that of Niyazov.

As far as NG supplies are concerned, Gazprom is probably safe for now. By the time the new pipeline to China is completed, Shtokman will likely come on line to offset the decline in existing Gazprom fields. Turkmenia does not have anything other than its NG to offer to the world, and it heavily depends on natural gas export revenues for importing food, pharmaceuticals, and manufactured goods, so whoever wins the power struggle in Ashgabad will keep NG flowing.

In the long run, Turkmenneftegaz will probably want to diversify away from the Russia/Ukraine market to get a better price for its exports. Not sure if Russia can do anything about that, unless they manage to install a government loyal to Moscow. My guess is there are lengthy meetings being held in Kremlin and Gazprom HQ right now to sort out the situation.

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totoneila on December 22, 2006 - 3:46am

Hello Petersburger,

Your quote: "My guess is there are lengthy meetings being held in Kremlin and Gazprom HQ right now to sort out the situation."

If this is true, and I do not doubt it: I would also say there are lengthy meetings being held in Euro-capitals, China, US, Iran, etc. Virtually everyone, at this late stage before the Peak, has a vital interest in this huge natgas supply and the Turkmenistan politics. Unfortunately, I fear it could get pretty ugly as the 'Great Game' shifts pieces to move towards depletion checkmate.

I remember Turkmenbashi had heart problems [No wonder after reading this keypost!] Putin's Silovicki, along with all the other operating mafias, plus all the contending governments would be enough to give anyone a heart attack.

Nonetheless, I recommend tests for Polonium-210 and other exotica. Billion$$$$ in pipeline flows & direction could depend on the outcome. Peakoil is incredibly more interesting than any Tom Clancy novel! I sincerely hope Turkmenistan politics can be smoothly resolved, but the arrest of one leader already is a very bad sign, IMO.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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totoneila on December 22, 2006 - 3:56am

BTW, great and detailed post on such short notice, HO! Your fingers must have been flying across the keyboard to bang this out so quickly. I am going to REDDIT now!