I'd have to go with Why peak oil is probably about now

This was one of the first articles I read on TOD and it really brought the idea of PO home for me. I always recommend it to friends and family when I bring up the idea of PO.

I would second the nomination for Stuart's posting. It is a good summary of the best evidence available for a near-term peak. I don't find it 100% convincing, but I don't think anyone here has done a better job of marshalling all the pro-peak evidence in one place.