The long term trend of suburbanization (since metasized as exurbanization) remained unchanged during the 1970s (although it slowed down, see VMT growth slowing from 3+% annual increases 1950-1972).

What we saw was, in military/political terms. was a tactical shift in the face of oil shortages; but the US Gov't long term strategic goal of more suburbanization/sprawl remained unchanged.

To those that doubt my characterization of sprawl as a government objective, do a thought experiment. Imagine cities that you know with zero limited access highways in built up areas (the tolled interstate highway bypasses this city with exits every 20 or 30 miles, and a six lane street leading from the sole exit on the edge of town), a handful of six lane streets with red lights and the rest two & four lane streets.

Add in mixed use zoning and mortgages that encourage dense housing near mass transit.

No change to the "free market", just changes in gov't actions.

Sprawl, and rising VMTs, are the result of gov't policies, which went unchanged in the 1970s (and today by and large).

Alan

I'm not so sure I'd view the continuing trend of expanding suburbanization after the 70s oil shocks as the result of deliberate government policy.

I tend to think it was more the result of LACK of government policy coupled with a built-in presumption that suburbanization was the only logical way to absorb the expanding population. Prehaps it was just a matter of government neglect.

Also, don't forget that the in the 1970s most of the major US cities were still experiencing 'white flight' as the result of urban decay, rising crime, and and variety of intractable racial and social problems. For a lower- to middle-class family, living in a major urban area during the 1970s (with memories of the urban riots of the 1960s still fresh) was not the most pleasant experience.

Packing more people into already troubled and highly stressed urban areas simply made no sense, other than from a purely energy consumption standpoint. (I'm still not sure it makes much more sense even today.)

You are exactly right. It is all result of public policy neglect. To complete your point - the other fundamental reason you cite - rising crime and racial problems is also a logical result of government neglect and disinterest. US government has never had the goal of tackling these problems via social policies - its primary goal has always been creating a secure growth-oriented corporate environment. Corporate heads and multimilioneers don't really care about the beggars on the streets as long as their taxes are low.

The resulting fundamental problems in the society, suburban sprawl among them, are starting to show up now - when the growth phase is approaching to an end and the resources to keep poverty apart suddenly become scarce... it is of course an overused comparison but the same thing happened with the Roman Empire when it started running out of slaves. The barbarians came in.

Yes. A screaming sign of deathly conservatism, a defense of an old state of affairs, in function both of some, but only some, corporate and business interests (these in turn being shaped by Gvmt. policy in return for what are basically bribes) and a championing of ancestral ‘core’ values - the right to act as if land use, energy, success and opportunity can never be limited materially or socially changed, even if, today, such myths don’t have the expected effects (eg. social mobility in every old EU country is higher than in the US, poverty in highest in the US amongst developed countries, etc. ...)

It is really quite surprising that the US has turned out be a bastion of conservatism, inflexibility, rampant bureaucracy and ‘big state’ (not in aid paid to the poor), military domination, a kind of war economy - in view of its reputation of pragmatism, inventivity, hard work, egalitarianism, a can-do attitUde.

Not that the EU (Japan, Aus, etc.) is any better, but the US, as an emanation of it, and as the supposed ‘hegemon’ is on the front line both for action (Iraq invasion) and criticism.

IMO the main problem is not so much conservatism but rather what some call "demosclerosis." Few constructive plans can get through our the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate, because the veto groups acting on behalf of vested interests are too strong, and what we've had for decades is worsening gridlock. Complicating demosclerosis are the short-sightedness of politicians (dominated by concerns of the upcoming election) and the rational ignorance of voters (rational because one vote is unlikely to affect the outcome of an election).

When republics fail there is usually a Caesar waiting in the wings.

Couls Sprawl also have been a defensive tactic against limited nuclear war? Spreading out the population and industry instead of having dense cities probably made it harder to bomb out USA.

But if that were a major reason every ten garage or so would be a fallout shelter with a meter of concrete in the walls and ceiling.

During the cold war we had such a planning for a threat equaling WW-2 style terror bombing or limited nuclear war. Most new apartment houses in large or strategic towns were built with bomb and fallout shelters. Old city cores were complemented with public shelters, the largest ones held 20 000 people see http://www.bunkertours.co.uk/Stockholm%20CD%20Shelter.htm
New shelters like infilling in light industrial areas and single house areas by tearing down garages and building standardised bomb/fallout shelters with garage doors were made at least untill the late 1980:s.

There were also plans duringthe early cold war to evacuate city population to the countryside. We also had a civil defence organization like the one Dresden would have needed in WW-2. All of it is gone now in the post cold war draw down, all exept some civil defence for the grid and the shelter stock that still is maintained although new houses are no longer required to be built with shelters.

Finland have kept the same type of shelter program running and still build new shelters, they probably also have an intact civil defence system. I am very impressed by the Finns, I wish Sweden were run in such a competent way as Finland. Switzerland probably have more and better shelters then Sweden.

Thinking about wasted cold war investments makes me quite sad, about 200 billion dollars over 40 years to prepair for a war that, thank a deity, never came. Wonder if we will start doing post peak oil and global warming investments with the same determination?

Back to topic, I dont think the threat of nuclear war lead to a change in city planning in Sweden.

During the 1950s sprawl was seen as increasing vulnerability to attack by possibly inaccurate intercontinental ballistic missles. There was a "Scientific American" article (I think from the mid-fifties) that advocated building cities in the form of elongated strips along highways to minimize damage from a massive atomic or thermonuclear attack. This idea went nowhere, along with building bomb shelters in back yards.

What worked to prevent war between the Soviet Union and the U.S. was the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction. Alas, I see no comparably powerful policy to minimize the threats from Peak Oil. The U.S. fiddled and sprawled for more than thirty years after 1973; I think it is now much to late to avoid major pain of transition. But for the twentieth time, I shall repeat: I am not a doomer.

I have to suspect that the growth of the suburbs seen in an accelerated animation would be essentially indistinguishable from the growth of mold (or yeast?) across a fruited plain, with all the planning you would expect from it. It followed the easiest paths, and filled in any spot within reach (of the somewhat-planned Interstate Highway System) where the housing spores could stick to the soil, and that with the glue of cheap petrol, this included of course dusty deserts, high mountain retreats and sodden, marshy coastlines that get swept through every few years with harsh wind and storms..