A couple of other thoughts:

- the AES president mentions that it is cheap to reduce CO2 emissions. In practice, that is not what the likes of TXU (Texas) and Southern Company (Atlanta) will say (the nation's largest CO2 emitters, along with AEP in the Midwest).

There *are* technologies that can deal with CO2 emission in power generation (Carbon Sequestration aka Carbon Capture and Storage), there is also nuclear power, gas turbine (much lower CO2 emissions than a conventional coal plant), renewables etc.

The best guesses are that the costs of eliminating 60%+ of all CO2 emissions by utilities are c. 2-4 cents/ kwhr. (so roughly a doubling of *wholesale* electricity prices in the US, or a 1/3 rise in retail prices, if your retail price is 12c/ kwhr now, it would go to 16 cents).

(I am basing that on the following very rough estimates of cost in cents per kwhr of power:

2 c/kwhr - written off coal plant (existing)
2-4c - new coal plant
3-5c - gas fired, combined cycle (depending on gas price!)
6-8c - new nuclear plant
5-9c - wind (onshore)
6-12c - wind (offshore)
15-20c - solar photovoltaic

(big sensitivities to assumptions about interest rates, fuel costs etc.))

*however* there are lots of tough choices in that:

- it's not clear planting trees really helps with CO2 emission (because mature temperate forests are CO2 sources, not sinks). Bomass may look clean, but it's not entirely clear it is clean.

- wind has huge opportunities, especially in the Great Plains states. However wind is not 'despatchible' or 'fast ramp' the power industry terms for being able to supply power on call, or with a very short lead time. You need fast-response gas fired stations or a way of storing power.

There are also big structural problems with wind. These range from aesthetics (Cape Wind off Cape Cod has deadlocked thanks to political opposition, and wind turbines on Vermont mountain tops) through to the cost of connecting isolated wind farms to the grid, to the issue of long distance power transmission (other countries have cracked this, but the US doesn't have one unitary grid authority-- so building high tension DC power lines from Nebraska to Ohio and New York is not something any one entity can mandate, and in a (partially) deregulated system, who would pay for this?).

If we come up with big scale, clever ways to store electricity, then wind has huge potential. Be this massive pumped storage facilities (picture the fights if New York floods Adirondack Valleys) or some clever fuel cell technology.

- solar isn't there yet. It will be, someday (the price of wind power has fallen by over 60% since 1980).

- sticking CO2 underground has huge potential *but* it has the political flavour of radioactive waste. A CO2 leak (natural) in Cameroon killed 1500 people-- do you think communities will sign up to that on their doorstep? Who will pay the legal liability if there is a leak?

Also it will require a complete change in coal-fired powerplant technology. (from pulverised coal to IGCC 'intermediate gasification combined cycle'). Although the IGCC technology is well proven, it is expensive and technologically sophisticated: utilities are cautious about reliability and cost, and again in a deregulated world they won't take the financial risk.

- nuclear has big potential, but the costs have always run way ahead of the industry forecasts. There is no place to store waste, and politically it doesn't look like there will be one anytime soon. New York wants to close Indian Point, right?

You can see the political problems mushroom, and no one has *yet* even tried to ram an airliner into a nuclear power plant.

- Quebec has Hydro power. Governor Cuomo backed off a major joint project with Hydro Quebec, after lawsuits from Indian groups. Maybe that one will come again. Certainly there is an opportunity there for New York to pay a high entry price (10s of billions of dollars), but secure energy for a long time to come *if* the snow keeps falling in northern Quebec (a big if under global warming).

- demand management has huge potential. Just reducing peaks (which are met using CO2 intensive coal and gas fired electricity) could have a big impact (nuclear and hydro meet more of the baseload capacity). I would bet replacing all the air conditioning in New York with the latest models could reduce energy demand by 10%, ditto replacing lightbulbs with compact fluorescents.

You can scrub exhaust gases from existing plants. Tech has been around for 50 years.

I assume you are referring to amine-based CO2 scrubbing?

It's a very inefficient process in a conventional PC plant-- because the CO2 stream is so dilute.

Costs are high.

Table 3.7

http://arch.rivm.nl/env/int/ipcc/pages_media/SRCCS-final/SRCCS_Chapter3.pdf

In practice, retrofitting is messy and impossible on some plants.

The CO2 concentration in exhaust gas is less than in the output of a water-shift reactor, true, but only by a few percent. It's more investment, of course, but a hell of a lot less than starting from scratch with a IGCC. Costs you no energy because you use the waste heat of the power plant.

My understanding is that retrofitting CO2 extraction is a very costly exercise, to the point where it probably won't happen.

New plants, again my understanding is an IGCC with CO2 extraction is a lower cost proposition than a supercritical steam coal plant with CO2 extraction.

Do you have any good data on costs? Any cites?

You probably dont have to sequester the same CO2 as is produced - any plant anywhere in the world that can extract CO2 out of the air and sequester it can offset similar C02 emissions elsewhere. The problem is of course to do it with an energy source that makes the whole operation a net C02 sink.

This is where the intermittent power from wind can perhaps play a role. A napkin-calculation to show net energy from say a coal-fired plant with 50% CO2 sequestration using remotely located wind powered plants would be interesting. In other words - how much energy does it take to sequester the CO2 produced by generating 1Kwh of electricity in a coal-fired plant. Anyone?

Would the EROEI even be > 1? Does it matter if you are trading peak supply energy for base load supply?

Francois

Willi Broecker has recently been promoting a scheme to draw down atmospheric CO2 with huge fans, for sequestration. This strikes me as completely ludicrous compared to tapping the non-dilute stream from a power plant.

Some people will go to any lengths to avoid the feared phrase "Plant a tree!". After all, how ludicrous is that? Green plants that sequester carbon... did anyone ever hear something more nonsensical? Didn't we all learn in school that trees produce more CO2 at night than they assimilate at daytime? Didn't we all hear about tree roots that tunnel down to the geological coal deposits to supply the trees with the ever needed carbon?

:-)

I will give you one that essentially requires no energy. Shell fish farms. Assume 1000 tons of oysters a year and the weight of meat is 20 percent. It works out to about 350 tons of CO2 a year. Yes, trivial I know.

I don't think this would be really trivial if it could be used to offset some of the fishing quotas. We know that we are greatly overfishing almost every single species we use from the oceans. If a greatly expanded shell fish industry could remove some of that stress on our oceans and at the same time act as a carbon sink, it would be a win-win. 1000 tons of oysters are nothing. If we want to feed the world, we will probably need a hundred million tons of shell fish (current fishing quotas are 90 million tons of fish, I believe). That amounts to 35 million tons of CO2. Still small compared to the 7Gtons of carbon we put in the atmosphere but not trivial by any measure. I don't know where the other environmental limits of this industry are, but maybe it can make an impact, after all.

Scrubbing the atmosphere of CO2 rather than individual exhaust streams will not be an efficient solution today unfortunately. The key issue is concentration. Scrubbing processes work more efficiently with higher concentrations to remove.

The atmosphere has ~400ppm CO2
Fossil power stations emit 5-10% CO2 in the stack

The amount of energy required to remove CO2 from air would be huge, with very very low efficiencies in comparison to doing the same on a more concetrated stream.

The power generation efficiency loss from installing CO2 capture / storage on a gas-fired power plant is circa 10-15%. Assume that coal is roughly the same. ie. A CCGT will fall from 55% to 45%, coal from 40% to perhaps 30%. Cost of the equipment for capture and storage is also high, and combined with the energy used to power the capture process could potentially add 50% or more to today's electricity price.

I think a big question here is the general population's willingness to pay for this. Everyone who uses energy will have to pay in the end. Currently there are few other solutions which can be deployed - lets face it man is not going to give up fossil fuel in 10 or 20 years, so CCS will have a vital bridging role to play in managing CO2 before cleaner energy sources start to become dominant.

I'd have to dig through the IPCC report, but my understanding is that full extraction and sequestration costs you something like 25% of energy produced *depending* upon how far you have to pump the CO2 to sequester it.

In practice, from an economy-wide perspective, dealing with the CO2 from coal plants is likely to be about the cheapest form of industrial abatement (although preserving rainforest, collecting methane off garbage dumps and pig farms, etc., will be even cheaper).

A couple of further ideas for reducing usage. Change out/reduce street lighting. Yes, a lot of the power usage is in off peak periods, but it would reduce the water used to turn hydro turbines which in many areas are the base load supply. Yes someone is going to yell about crime and liability, but there are trade-offs in every endeavor.

Regulate the amount of wattage in advertising signs. If everbodies ox is gored equally, no one should be disadvantaged. I have been told that these usages are minimal and my answer is a tenth of a percent is better than no percent.

"Regulate the amount of wattage in advertising signs. If everbodies ox is gored equally, no one should be disadvantaged"

But, every user of energy should not be treated equally. Those whose electricity is wasteful or is not essential to the safety and well being of the population must be charged a higher rate. The billboard companies could be charged a high enough rate to encourage them to get a solar array and battery system to light their signs. And, reduce highway lighting and airport lighting.

The auto/airline industries are huge users of electric power for lighting compared to railroads/transit systems. If more travel could be shifted to these more energy efficient modes, much electrical power could be saved. You don't see many railroad tracks illuminated at night, and the station facilities for transit and intercity passenger rail systems cover much smaller land areas than highways and airports, thus less lighting/power needed.

"But, every user of energy should not be treated equally. Those whose electricity is wasteful or is not essential to the safety and well being of the population must be charged a higher rate."

One question: Why?

Your CO2 is just as bad as your neighbour's CO2. Schemes to differentiate how much energy is used for what puprose usually satisfy the anal mind but are not practical. Slapping a 100% tax on carbon is simple and workable, and, in the end, the market can sort it out. If everything becomes more expensive, what are you going to cut out first: te useless stuff that gets advertised for most or bread and butter? And once you cut out the useless products, advertising for them will stop very, very quickly. People do not produce and do not advertise for things that don't sell.

2 c/kwhr - written off coal plant (existing)
2-4c - new coal plant
3-5c - gas fired, combined cycle (depending on gas price!)
6-8c - new nuclear plant
5-9c - wind (onshore)
6-12c - wind (offshore)
15-20c - solar photovoltaic

I'd suggest the following:

3-4c - new nuclear (French calculations)
5-9c - gas fired (5 at current lowish prices for gas)
3-7c - wind onshore

hi Jerome, can you tell me - are the numbers you quote just investment costs or lifecycle generation costs (investment, operational costs and fuel costs?).

Interested as want to use in a comparison for CCS I am looking at.

Those should be lifecycle costs: fuel, O&M, capex etc. So highly dependent on prevailing interest rates and the future track of fuel prices.

Fair enough.

The French cost of nuclear is lower than the Anglo-Saxon cost of nuclear.

I take any 'estimate' of nuclear power cost from the Anglo-Saxon proponents, and add at least 50%. (in practice, the actual outcomes were 400-500% higher but I'm hoping we have learned something from the disasters of the 1980s). In an Anglo-Saxon country, there is a greater dispersion of political and social power, and therefore a far greater planning and appeals process, and more political constraints on the economics.

The UK has one of the oldest civilian nuclear power industries. The estimated costs of disposal and decontamination (present value) for the industry are now £70bn-- that's got to be at least 1p /kwhr (ie nearly 2 cents) for every kwhr the industry has generated.

The grave danger of nuclear power is that it will suck up all the available government funds for alternative energy and R&D: this has apparently happened in Finland.

gas fired I am willing to be led. My understanding was at $4/mcf, that gas was competitive with coal. High interest rates in the 90s meant that gas was superior in cost to coal (60% of the lifecycle cost of a gas plant is fuel). Interest rates have fallen a lot since then (raising the relative attractions of wind, nuclear and coal).

Offshore wind is a bit unproven of course. We haven't, AFAIK, tested an offshore wind platform in a really big hurricane of the Katrina type.

The other problem with wind is that one needs gas-fired as a backup. That can really eff up the system-wide economics.

Notwithstanding, I am a big bull of wind where the geography justifies it (roughly: north western Europe, the Great Plains of the US, and offshore in many many places). I think we could profitably give foreign aid to places like Morocco and Egypt by helping them build wind capacity, which would displace diesel fuel and gas.

I take any 'estimate' of nuclear power cost from the Anglo-Saxon proponents, and add at least 50%. (in practice, the actual outcomes were 400-500% higher but I'm hoping we have learned something from the disasters of the 1980s).

It will be just as expensive if you tie capital up in court instead of into revenue generation. I imagine what utilities have learned is hedging strategies to keep capital working against the discount rate if some enviro's manage to pull their stunts again.

In an Anglo-Saxon country, there is a greater dispersion of political and social power, and therefore a far greater planning and appeals process, and more political constraints on the economics.

And when the lights dim while the price rises, this can easily prompt change for fasttracking nuclear licensing.

The UK has one of the oldest civilian nuclear power industries. The estimated costs of disposal and decontamination (present value) for the industry are now £70bn-- that's got to be at least 1p /kwhr (ie nearly 2 cents) for every kwhr the industry has generated.

Thats a nonsense number. All disposal costs can be essentially put to zero with the magic of discounting unless you are desperate to do something about some geologic repository immidiately; Which is a giant waste of time. Its a political price and not a technical one.

The grave danger of nuclear power is that it will suck up all the available government funds for alternative energy and R&D: this has apparently happened in Finland.

Oh come on! You really think you are going to deliver several GW of baseload from wind turbines in a localized area for the same cost? Germany isn't having a good time with it.

I imagine what utilities have learned is hedging strategies to keep capital working against the discount rate if some enviro's manage to pull their stunts again.

It wasn't just the environmental movement. There were changes in design and serious safety problems. It was a managerial fiasco of the first order.

Also there was unforeseen inflation in construction costs due to general economic conditions.

The reality is our record for forecasting and controlling big capex projects is poor-- most overrun.

Thats a nonsense number. All disposal costs can be essentially put to zero with the magic of discounting unless you are desperate to do something about some geologic repository immidiately; Which is a giant waste of time. Its a political price and not a technical one.

I don't think a number given to Parliament, and a financial liability on the UK taxpayer, is a 'nonsense number'. The people are being hired and the plans are being laid to decomission these plants.

The destination of the waste is, as yet, uncertain.

You have to look at full system cost. You can't just look at the cost of building the damn thing, if you don't look at the cost of decommissioning and decontamination.

The discount rate is appropriate: I believe they use the long term cost of borrowing of the UK government. As they do for other public infrastructure projects.

re Energy R&D. Just because we can't see a solution, with existing technology, doesn't mean we shouldn't pursue finding better technologies.

Wind *can* and will provide a very significant chunk of the UK's electric power consumption. Perhaps 20%, perhaps more.

That is independent of the nuclear choice because the time lags on nuclear are so long. And nuclear economics are truly lousy for above baseload capacity.

I'm always fascinated that nuke advocates see themselves in opposition to new forms of energy. It's like the world will be a great place if we would only accept the Holy Water of Nuclear Power. Well, as a technology, it has not delivered before, at least not in Anglo-Saxon countries, at the promised cost. (everyone says 'France' but you could just as well say 'Russia' (Chernobyl) or 'Japan' (cracking throughout the reactor fleet).

In practice, you can't play off nukes against wind. Neither is fast-ramp despatchable, in grid terminology.

A simple R&D example will show you the importance of research: what if we invent new and better ways of power storage? At which point, wind and solar expand their applicability.

The destination of the waste is, as yet, uncertain.

It should be a secure parking lot. We'll check on it again in fifty years.

I'm always fascinated that nuke advocates see themselves in opposition to new forms of energy. It's like the world will be a great place if we would only accept the Holy Water of Nuclear Power. Well, as a technology, it has not delivered before, at least not in Anglo-Saxon countries, at the promised cost. (everyone says 'France' but you could just as well say 'Russia' (Chernobyl) or 'Japan' (cracking throughout the reactor fleet).

I dont see myself in opposition to wind or solar, but the problem is that nuclear isn't in competition with wind or solar; It competes with coal!

I'm sure wind is cheaper than nuclear in some sites for flexible power demands, but for baseload power the only thing that can compete with nuclear is hydro or coal. Hydropower is great but has a limited number of exploitable sites. Coal is great for turning into diesel fuel and just a giant waste to burn for electricity.

A simple R&D example will show you the importance of research: what if we invent new and better ways of power storage? At which point, wind and solar expand their applicability.

What if we develop new, cheaper reactors?

I'm sure wind and solar have a future, but today nuclear is in competition with coal. Ignoring nuclear today means building more coal plants.