Thank you. A very thoughtful and reasonable response in the first paragraph and good thinking in the second.

So you do not see, at no point in decline under a "slow squeeze" time frame, any intra-national energy and food distribution problems? I'm talking mostly about the First Worlders like N.A., euroland, S.A. or parts of asia...??

At no point in the oil decline curve will their be a USSR-like breakdown and subsequent bickering between states for any major first world countries?

Robert, one of the issues though in the slow squeeze scenario is not just production, but distribution. Look at Venezuela right now. When things turn sour, how many more nations will nationalize their oil companies? My primary impression is one of a slow squeeze also, at least for the first decade or so. But rising population and declining production is going to make that very ugly very fast. Can we count on enough non-US oil being available to us?

To me, the decline from peak starts to play wildcards, like rate of nationalization and confiscation of oil companies and resources, resource wars, etc. And none of those are predictable. We can look at the declining rate of production and say all other things being equal that oil companies are a good bet, but will all other things remain equal? That, to me, is the unknown.

By the way, I am arranging my own immediate affairs as if other things will remain roughly equal. Why? Because if they do not we get into areas like martial law, nationalization, national emergencies, rationing, etc., and there is no real way to invest against that. I view survival preparations as insurance against such unknowns so they do not take up all of my investments but only a fraction, though that fraction may grow over time if I believe the situation is worsening faster than I expected.

In short, I think your hunch is right, at least for the first few years post-peak. I also think that confiscation is inevitable as the situation deteriorates, barring some technological breakthrough. The question there is simplty when?

Agree 100% :)

By to hold for 5-10 years and you will make a killing.

Even if we get rid of the personal car and replace it we still need a lot of oil to run heavy equipment airplanes etc etc etc. We will basically run this stuff on oil with electric making a slow replacement where possible.

The point is even if we do the right thing about peak oil and change we will still use all the available oil. This is a given. In later years it will be used where it makes sense but it will be used.