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43 comments on Is Peak Oil Already Here? Is that why GS Reweighted?

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memmel on January 11, 2007 - 12:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Agree 100% :)

By to hold for 5-10 years and you will make a killing.

Even if we get rid of the personal car and replace it we still need a lot of oil to run heavy equipment airplanes etc etc etc. We will basically run this stuff on oil with electric making a slow replacement where possible.

The point is even if we do the right thing about peak oil and change we will still use all the available oil. This is a given. In later years it will be used where it makes sense but it will be used.

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memmel on January 11, 2007 - 12:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

To reply to my own post :)

I say at 10 dollars a gallon for gasoline we max out on fuel cost because at 10 buck a gallon any energy source is reasonable. So at ten buck a gallon we can afford to pump all the remaining oil thus we will.

10 dollars a gallon in todays money is really the max or true price for energy above this it makes sense to conserve energy uses or minimize so it will never get over ten.

Brutal for the American crap lifestyle but if your a doomer it does show that their is a upper bound and its really not that high. England is at 7 dollars a gallon now as well as a lot of Europe so they are not far from having a economy that is peak oil insensitive.

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memmel on January 11, 2007 - 12:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Might as well keep talking to myself :)

I read this

http://www.forbes.com/guruinsights/2007/01/10/recession-commodities-hous...

Pretty doom and gloom but he is postulating that oil prices will drop while we
say they will go up if we are at peak. So for all those happy people out their consider his scenarios with rising oil prices or worse of course my prediction of volatile prices with spikes.

I'm just saying the the psychological consequences on the group mind with everything going down and oil prices rising will not be pretty.

At the end of the day the effects of peak oil are psychological.

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ET on January 11, 2007 - 2:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's tough to even talk to an investment advisor about the economic future, if one believes that we will have a shrinking economic pie. The standard investment mantra holds that over the 'long term' a portfolio that is properly diversified will alway grow. In the coming energy starved world this very well may not be so, but try telling an investment person that. It may be more sensible to do the now verboten thing of making carefully targeted investments, rather than broadly diversified ones. In any case, I expect the next 5 - 10 years to be so volatile that no strategy will actually be reliably predictable.

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