The Oil Drum

43 comments on Is Peak Oil Already Here? Is that why GS Reweighted?

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ace on January 11, 2007 - 2:49am

Freddy,

You don't actually trust IEA forecasts, do you?

As I don't subscribe to IEA, I found their "World Energy Outlook 2004". http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/free.asp

From page 105: "World oil supply is projected to grow from 77 mb/d in 2002 to 121 mb/d in
2030." 121 million barrels/day in 2030!! Page 106 shows OPEC producing 64.8 million barrels/day in 2030. I'd like to see the spreadsheet they used to calculate that number! As WT says - lets buy more SUVs to drive to the suburban mortgage.

There are different types of bottom up based forecasts - some are based partly on reserves which can be misleading. That is the main reason why I built my own model using only production and decline rates from existing fields and future projects out to Dec 2010. (sourced mainly from Chris Skrebowski's megaproject list). I do not use reserves or yet to be discovered reserves to forecast oil production.

Try building your own model - you will learn a lot about forecasting and also how organisations such as CERA, IEA and others forecast for their clients. If you have already built your own model please post it on TOD!

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Freddy Hutter on January 11, 2007 - 4:27am

Cute, Ace. You trust IEA enuf to use their Demand projections but then shit on their Supply targets. And yes, i do subscribe to their targets. When we go back ten years ago, IEA predicted 2006 Supply would be 80-mbd (compared to actual 85-mbd). Within 10%. When we look at the Peakster view of 2006 thru the eyes of Colin Campbell, it was 64-mbd. Out over 20%. The Peaksters should never engage in pissing contests wrt to forecasting, Ace.

BTW, IEA has no spreadsheets to merit the 2030 forecasts. In my criticism of IEA, EIA & others i have condemned their continued use of long term Supply targets based solely on a factor of projected Real GDP growth. OTOH, since 1998 their short and medium term targets are based on bottom-up flow analysis.

U and Bakhtiari are the only folks i know forecasting decreased supply after 2006. Samsam is an idiot and a liar so he's covered. After your two presentations, we have little explanation from u wrt which countries or what components of total liquids will cause a 7-mbd shortfall from the other 2010 Outlooks. If u wish to reside in a realm of smoke&mirrors, that is certainly your privilege...

The weight of the 13 recognized medium term Outlooks say u are very wrong. Bakhtiari has fraudulently changed his definitions to protect the integrity of his forecast that Peak has occured. He credits decline in KSA as his basis for Peak Oil. His 81-mbd Peak is bunk and he is easily dismissed. It is your privilege to defend or choose not to defend where your Scenario differs from consensus; either based on geography or liquid component.