Cute, Ace. You trust IEA enuf to use their Demand projections but then shit on their Supply targets. And yes, i do subscribe to their targets. When we go back ten years ago, IEA predicted 2006 Supply would be 80-mbd (compared to actual 85-mbd). Within 10%. When we look at the Peakster view of 2006 thru the eyes of Colin Campbell, it was 64-mbd. Out over 20%. The Peaksters should never engage in pissing contests wrt to forecasting, Ace.

BTW, IEA has no spreadsheets to merit the 2030 forecasts. In my criticism of IEA, EIA & others i have condemned their continued use of long term Supply targets based solely on a factor of projected Real GDP growth. OTOH, since 1998 their short and medium term targets are based on bottom-up flow analysis.

U and Bakhtiari are the only folks i know forecasting decreased supply after 2006. Samsam is an idiot and a liar so he's covered. After your two presentations, we have little explanation from u wrt which countries or what components of total liquids will cause a 7-mbd shortfall from the other 2010 Outlooks. If u wish to reside in a realm of smoke&mirrors, that is certainly your privilege...

The weight of the 13 recognized medium term Outlooks say u are very wrong. Bakhtiari has fraudulently changed his definitions to protect the integrity of his forecast that Peak has occured. He credits decline in KSA as his basis for Peak Oil. His 81-mbd Peak is bunk and he is easily dismissed. It is your privilege to defend or choose not to defend where your Scenario differs from consensus; either based on geography or liquid component.