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14 comments on More on the Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia oil and gas confrontations

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totoneila on January 11, 2007 - 12:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Hello HO,

I think it would be interesting if some polling organization asked the people in the former states of the FSU if they would prefer to rejoin Mother Russia, then enjoy subsidized fuel at the Russian rate, or retain their independence and pay the going market rate.

Kind of a reverse psychology to Putin's plan. If these former FSU states really lobbied to rejoin for the cheap energy: Putin would be forced to stop subsidizing the Russian people and raise their rates to world market levels to hold off the former FSU countries. Net result: more fair prices for everyone, and greater incentives to conserve everywhere, thus extending supplies.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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coromo on January 11, 2007 - 3:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The same polling organisation might also wish to ask the citizens of Russia itself what they feel about the plans of Putin and friends to move energy prices within the country towards market rates.

Simple black and white models may not be appropriate for understanding what's happening here.

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Buckler on January 11, 2007 - 4:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Former FSU countries -- it would just be mainly Ukraine & Belarus, that Russia would want to "reintegrate" at first maybe one region of Moldovia that is Russian (Trans-Dniester), Kazahstan has oil and gas, and so does most of Central Asia, & the Baltic States are part of the EU.
That is not a huge but not a small area, Ukraine and Belarus -- about 65 million people.

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Buckler on January 11, 2007 - 4:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I know in Ukraine, these polls have been done and the Russian population which is mainly in the East and North, also the Crimea and Odessa are in favor of further Russian reintigration, while the ethnic Ukrainians in the west and south (including the majority of Kiev and almost all of Lvov) support independence. Overall it is split with a slight majority in favor of independence.

The CIA worldfactbook has Ukraine at 77% ethnic Ukrainian but it seems to me that's high from other sources: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/up.html#People

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