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Sure thing, old chap.
PEMEX WILL MAINTAIN PRODUCTION FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES [translator's best guess for a colloquialism]
It will produce 700 Mb/d less than last year
===
Production from Mexico's main oilfield, Cantarell, will fall rapidly from September this year.
According to the PEMEX 2007 Annual Operating Plan, the development will be producing 700 Mb/d less than the maximum achieved last year, which was 2.1 MMb/d.
With the remaining level of production from Cantarell it will be possible to maintain current levels of production of gasoline - in the Magna and Premium brands - which the country consumes. However, it is equivalent to 50% of the total run of PEMEX's six refineries.
The document, which EL UNIVERSAL has obtained, states that in the fourth quarter Cantarell will be producing 1.329 MMb/d due to its accelerating decline, which will make it harder to achieve the production and export targets fixed by the federal government fot this year.
The plan, which is the driver for the Mexican oil industry, states that as of the end of January of this year the reservoir, considered the sixth largest in the world, will produce 1.723 MMb/d on average, and in December it will be delivering 1.429 MMb/d. However, not even the additional volumes from the Ku-Maloob-Zaap development, which according to ex President Vicente Fox were going to offset the decline of Cantarell, will be enough to prevent the depletion of Mexico's exploitable reserves.
INVESTIGATION DEMANDED
Referring to the matter, Jorge Chavez Presa, the undersecretary for Energy Policy during the administration of Ernesto Zedillo, stated that it is necessary to undertake an audit of PEMEX's use of the additional resources which it received during Vicente Fox's administration, "which were much higher than its budget under the three previous administrations and which have not generated additional production or reserves, as we can see in Cantarell".
He stated that the ex president had not fulfilled his historic responsibility. "Every administration gave its successor the means to increase oil production. But Calderon inherited a declining industry".
Interviewed during the "2007 Seminar on Economic Perspectives on the Challenges for 2006-2012", organized by the Mexican Independent Institute of Technology, the professor said that there was a need for transparency and accountability in "a matter that affects us all".
"We need to know what happened to all the extra resources that PEMEX received. Was the wasted money invested under the PIDIREGAS framework? [translator's note: no idea what this is]. We need to be critical".
He explained that under Fox, institutions did not function properly, neither the State Comptroller nor the Senior Auditor, because "PEMEX had all the money in the world due to the high price of oil, and didn't know how to use it".
Better title
PEMEX STILL HAVING PRODUCTION PROBLEMS
literally
PRODUCTION FROM PEMEX IS STILL ITCHY
(A "Picada" is a big platter of several kind of finger food - hence my initial guess. I was too proud to use the help of Google Translate).
From a native Spanish speaker,
PEMEX PRODUCTION STAYS IN A NOSEDIVE
In Spanish Spanish, at least, "En picado" is the way airplanes fall when they stall.
http://www.spanishdict.com/AS.cfm?e=picado
Nice. Certainly seems to fit the facts as described in the article. But isn't the gender wrong? Not the first word to flip gender between the Old World and the New World, of course.
Thanks for the translation. You too, Plucky.
Looks like a steep drop off. Anyone have any estimates on how much Ku-Maloob-Zaap will be producing? Must be huge if they expect it to make up the difference.
This story says 200 Mb/d - doesn't even come close to plugging the gap:
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=28090
Remember that 200 Mb/d is an UPPER limit on production which MAY be reached at SOME TIME in the future...
My mistake. That 200 Mb/d is a capacity UPGRADE (FPSO). Following article says the project is/was ramping up to 800 Mb/d (last paragraph). I don't know if that includes the 200 in the other article. As before, upper limit, possible, future, sometime etc.
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=content§ionID=8&catID=40&subca...
Yeah I remember reading about it in the past and it being a very big field.
I live in Texas and took a year of Spanish in college, but am defintely not fluent. Is this article saying that current production is 263 kpd and going to ramp up to 800 kpd by 2011?
Numbers are correct, but article is dated 2002. So a lot of that increase has already happened and won't be replacing Cantarell.
From the article, it sound like K-M-Z is a cluster of mini Cantarell clones. I think they might be offset fault blocks of the same formation. Certainly the process parameters are similar, on a smaller scale.
I've started to wonder what the post-peak decline rates are going to look like for some of these regions where one field accounts, or accounted, for half or more of their production. It's somewhat unusual for a large producing region to be so dependent on one oil field. For example, the East Texas Field only accounted for about 7% of Texas production in 1972, when we peaked.
One example of what happens when one big field declines is Alaska, which had about a 6% decline rate in the first 12 years or so after Prudhoe Bay peaked, versus a long term decline rate of about 2% for the Lower 48.
In any case, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Kuwait (all top 10 net oil exporters) are all in the same boat, hugely dependent on one oil field.
The problem is that, while these regions may show somewhat of a rebound in the future (but still well below their peak production), the short term decline rate in all three cases could be vicious, because they are so dependent on one field. Obviously, this appears to be precisely what we are seeing in Mexico.
No, the story says 200 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) not mbpd (million barrels per day). Please get the units right as it makes a rather large difference. Or, if you want to express it in mbpd, please do the conversion - 0.2mbpd.
Who? Stop raggin on the newbies. Teach'em how to do it. Member, Darwinian don't know the diff between a mill and a thousand, See what I'm seeing? Understand? Put your fuckin shirt on. Yo! ...We don't get fooled again... pick up my guitar and play... just like yesterday... the change it had to come... I knew it all along...
For goodness' sake let's not get into a flamewar over this. I would rather expend my energy on debating the date and nature of Peak Liquids, whether it's 90 Mbd, 90 mmb/d or even 85 million (were you confused by that?). Anyone who thinks that K-M-Z is producing 200 million barrels per day would probably misconstrue the entire article. There's nothing unusual about a language that requires meanings to be glarked from context - English would be a good example.
The upstream oil business takes a proudly independent view of unit system standardization. M, MM and MMM are customary abbreviations for thousand, million and (occasionally) billion. To confuse matters further, they can be either uppercase or lowercase. If we're being strictly metric (implied by k), wouldn't 200 mbpd be 200 milli-barrel-poise-day?
This will become a familiar song and dance; due to under/misplaced/bungled/poorly blah blah blah investments, the production from the Giga field will trend lower...never a mention of geology, because you can't beat up on geology and pass the buck.
Sadly, oil was the one thing that Mexico had going for it in a global trading situation. Shortly, they will be down to the, is it? 1.5 million barrels for domestic consumption, IF they aren't obliged to export that first and drive on the remainder. If the USA had the per capita oil consumption of Mexico it would be self sufficient. How about a Continental Energy Policy based upon per capita consumption and may the most efficient win? Given the solar potential of Mexico, I'd bet on a big transfer of capital. While business is presently chasing the lowest labor cost, at some point energy availability will drive location.
As I recall, Mexican hotels are required to have solar hot water heaters; in this regard they are ahead of us. Mind you, in Mexico it doesn't take much more than a bucket on the roof. But they have started.
'...because you can't beat up on geology and pass the buck.'
This is one of the things which makes peak oil such a pleasure - I grew up in a time when numerous lies and falsehoods were being exposed, and unquestioned beliefs being challenged, and then watched that process (with its own flaws, of course) come to a stop, and be written off as a 'low point' of American history.
When less comes out of the pipeline, and essentially ever less following that point, Americans can have a lovely discussion with reality. I, for one, expect to enjoy seeing how reality won't care about anyone's opinions (including mine - I am older now, and realize just how much evil humans do to one another, but hate is like that).
After all, they already dismissed people trying to deal with that problem decades ago.
In a way, it is amusing - when the American military left Karlsruhe, the base library was given as a gift to the city's library system. Over the years, as the library sold off its older books, I have collected a fairly interesting collection of 1970s books concering sustainable living, from organic gardening to insulation and building techniques to solar systems for heating and electricity. The amount of thought, talent, and wisdom in those books makes it hard to imagine they come from the same time and place in which magazines like People and Us were first launched.
Or not, seeing how America is today.
And as for some people who care about peak oil 'credibility' - the people concerned about this in 1978 weren't worried about 'credibility,' they were worried about how to live differently. Seems like they were the deluded ones, as Americans have no interest in being told how to live better, whether it is 6 weeks of vacation or universal health care, or functioning transit systems and walkable living spaces.
I, along with a good number of people, were wrong to think that oil production would clearly decline by the later 1980s, or before 2000. We weren't wrong in looking at what that meant, and how to prepare for it.
The future is now - enjoy it.
You need to watch SNL more. You shoulda seen the piece on the news about Steve Jobs and Apple. Don't get me started on Beckham.
The Future? You seen "Children of Men" yet, or what? They're talking about this as top ten this year. I'd say that's close. Read Slate. Saw it here last year. The Bond is always early.
I actually decided to check the phrase the 'future is now,' hoping for the Doonesbury strip - not often you read 'pox' in a comic, before realizing that the Doonesbury strips found on the net aren't indexed by text. It seems as if the expression is pretty commonly used - no surprise, but for some reason, I always thought it was a particularly apt expression from the end of the days when a true football fanatic was sitting in the White House. There are many things you can say about Nixon, but his attachment and understanding of football seems to have been a part of his life.
And this was the first time in my life America confronted massive abuse of presidential powers, a stupid and losing war where the solution was to expand it into surrounding countries, and a background of currency problems and no longer growing oil production. Which is a rear view memory, by the way.
Time for another martini - but Martini Bianco, which apparently has as much wormwood as absinthe, but less alcohol. Keeps the edge off, so to speak.
Thanks a million Plucky for this translation and posting.
Of course it is all Fox's fault. He should have figured out a way to keep Mexico's oil reservoirs from peaking and going into steep decline. Perhaps he should prayed to Our Lady of Guadeloupe to petation God to put more oil in the ground.
Sorry for the sarcasm but I just could not help it. Someone must always be at fault. Fault must always be found and the culprit must be ostracized from society.
Ron Patterson