The GDP is a Ponzi scheme, counting capital as revenue.

http://potluck.com/media/the-unsustainability-and-origins-of-socioeconom...

Pertinent to the discussion here, Oil is capital literally burning up until we are forced to account properly. This goes well beyond oil and has been going on for thousands of years in the form of "agriculture". When all real capital has been consumed, whether in an internal combustion engine or from plowing, we are left with consuming each other. The end.

Bacteria, on the other hand, will live on. Collapse from one complexity state to a lower state doesn't mean we have to suffer or even be less comfortable. Relocalization is a start, but don't forget that we know little about how to preserve humus after 10,000 years of farming. Relocalization will be meaningless, if we start burning humus with tilling, fertilizer, and pesticides. If you want coincidences, look at where all the worlds deserts are located and then think about where agriculture has been practiced for the longest. We are just beginning to dig up the ancient ruins beneath the Sahara. That's righ, the weather is responsible. Sound familiar?

If you want coincidences, look at where all the worlds deserts are located and then think about where agriculture has been practiced for the longest.

Ahh, yes, the great Yellow River desert, so lifeless and barren after expending its soil as the cradle of Chinese civilization that now a mere 100 million people live along its banks...

Truly, the accuracy of your statement is astonishing!

They're lucky, it's a flooding river, like the Nile. A pity they fucked up the natural fertilizing function of the Nile by building the Aswan dam. China is making the same mistake.

Take a look at the cradle of civilization: from Marrakesh to Multan the landscape is indeed barren. Where once the mighty cedars of Libanon grew, now only dust remains.

Look at our works, ye mighty, and despair!

Take a look at the cradle of civilization: from Marrakesh to Multan the landscape is indeed barren. Where once the mighty cedars of Libanon grew, now only dust remains.

One example of a cradle of civilization is now a desert; another example is still highly fertile.

Ignoring the second and claiming the first represents a general trend is known as cherry-picking, and represents a very biased and partisan approach to the data.

Unless it really is a general trend, of course. Which I believe is the case: Wherever ancient civilizations appeared, when they disappeared they left scorched earth. The exceptions are where large rivers replenish the soil supply, most notably the Nile, the Tigris/Euphrate, the Ganges and the Yellow/Blue river.

Unless it really is a general trend, of course. Which I believe is the case: Wherever ancient civilizations appeared, when they disappeared they left scorched earth. The exceptions are where large rivers replenish the soil supply, most notably the Nile, the Tigris/Euphrate, the Ganges and the Yellow/Blue river.

So if those four are counter-examples -- and they involve the cradle of western civilization and the cradle of eastern civilization -- then what are the examples of this actually happening? For something that "really is a general trend", I would assume there are dozens of examples of agriculture leading to massive-scale desertification; what are they?

(I'm also surprised you listed Tigris/Euphrates as a counter-example; I was under the impression that part of the reason for the decline of Sumeria was lowered agricultural productivity due to salt accumulation on the field from their method of irrigation.)

Well, the whole of the Mediterranean (the Greek and the Spanish didn't make their fleets out of the present-day mediterranean vegetation) and the Middle East (the cedars of Libanon, North Africa: the bread basket of Rome). Each time the soil in Mesopotamia became bad enough, the current empire retracted and after a few floodings it was ready to go again.

And farming might be sustainable for millennia in its current form, that's not enough. It must be sustainable practically forever. Even as little as the loss of 1 mm of soil each year is 1 m per millennium. That's unsustainable, the exact period that it goes on depends on the soil supply. How much soil has disappeared in the Dust Bowl area, and how much is left? We can be certain that that kind of agriculture in that area is *not* sustainable.

Well, the whole of the Mediterranean (the Greek and the Spanish didn't make their fleets out of the present-day mediterranean vegetation)

We're talking about food, not forestry. And Spain is a net food exporter, with a vastly larger population than it had in the days of the Armada, so I really don't see that it supports your claim.

Italy and Greece would be better examples -- both are net food importers -- but both have strongly increased their food yields over the last decades (Italy, Greece), allowing them to support vastly larger populations than in their empire years.

the Middle East (the cedars of Libanon, North Africa: the bread basket of Rome). Each time the soil in Mesopotamia became bad enough, the current empire retracted and after a few floodings it was ready to go again.

Egypt currently produces enough food for about 2/3 of its population, or about 50 million people. i.e., Egypt alone could feed 80% of the Roman Empire circa 300AD; North Africa could still be the breadbasket of Rome.

In fact, almost every major agricultural area currently supports many more people than it ever did in the distant past. Even Iraq produces millions of tons of cereals, despite its agricultural capability being degraded by successive wars and sanctions, which is most likely more than it produced in Babylonian times.

In fact, the strong trend seems to be that ancient breadbaskets are still strong producers of agricultural goods, which is directly counter to your argument.

And farming might be sustainable for millennia in its current form, that's not enough. It must be sustainable practically forever.

One way or another, farming 1,000 years from now will be very different from farming now -- the odds that we'll be at a comparable level of technology are vanishingly small.

I do agree with you that we should avoid long-term damage or degradation to our fertile lands, though.

Of course the yields have increased due to mechanization and chemical fertilizer. What the yields would be now with ancient methods is speculation, though I speculate 'a lot less'. But both mechanization and fertilizer are dependent on limited resources, that are not impossible but very hard to replace, indeed, and will certainly become more scarce in the mid-term future.

So I think we can conclude that long-term agriculture is not impossible, but far from a happy-go-lucky endeavour.

(I appreciate the follow-up of the discussion.)

So I think we can conclude that long-term agriculture is not impossible, but far from a happy-go-lucky endeavour.

I'll agree with that.

(I appreciate the follow-up of the discussion.)

And that. :)

decline of Sumeria was lowered agricultural productivity due to salt accumulation

Yes! Irrigation and plowing release salts that can otherwise coexist in the soil without a problem. Watch the video:
http://www.permaculture.org.au/greening.htm

Those are hand fulls of salt he is showing you from Jordan. So where did he put it? "It's not supposed to be possible", they told him. With agriculture, it isn't and you get desert.

The process depends on the soil and ecology being damaged. Grasslands are the most vulnerable, but that is what you get when you clear a forest to grow yet more food for a "growing" population. Since the forests are so integral to affecting climate, rain, and increasing soil humus, they take longer, but will become deserts, too. Bring the forest back to the yellow river and it will run clear, again.

225 days of the year? Five times as much irrigation as done in 1950? There may be 100 million people there for now, but look at the Sahara for where this ends. The river is "yellow" from the soil washing away. Only clear water runs out of a healthy ecosystem. Those dust storms settle over the Rocky Mountains. The process takes thousands of years, but ends the same way as seen all the way from the Sahara to the Gobi and moving down the Yellow River to the ocean for 225 days in one year alone.

There may be 100 million people there for now, but look at the Sahara for where this ends.

Why do you believe that? What evidence do you have for the assertion that long-term agriculture must inevitably lead to desertification?

The Yellow River has been surrounded by extensive agriculture for something like 6,000 years. If it hasn't become a desert in that time, why should we believe it'll do so any time soon?

The river is "yellow" from the soil washing away. Only clear water runs out of a healthy ecosystem.

Again, an assertion for which you provide no evidence. The Yellow River (which is, indeed, named for the large amounts of soil it carries) hasn't had its name changed recently: it's been the Yellow -- carrying vast amounts of soil -- for thousands of years.

Again, if it's been doing that since the beginning of history, what's the evidence that'll cause a problem any time in the forseeable future?

Maybe you're right, maybe the 6,000-year history of agriculture around the Yellow River is going to come to a crashing halt in the next few years. Without compelling and objective evidence to support that proposition, though, a disinterested observer has no reason to believe it -- the 6,000-year history of the Yellow being bountiful is pretty strong evidence you need to counter.

Especially considering that the land 90% of the river's silt comes from ain't farmland.

The Chinese have practiced fertility management over the ages much more effectively than most of the world. This hasn't sheltered them from famines (only experienced with agriculture), but their land was in decent shape in comparison to other areas when the industrial age began.

Agriculture, being a business, has been well documented through the ages with hard numbers. The pattern is decline, until a new understanding helps put depleted land back into production. These days we speak of hybridized seeds and GMO; 80 to 200 bushels per acre for various grains. Previously, we spoke of deeper tilling and a new understanding of fertilizers; 20 to 30 bushels per acre. Before that they abandoned a field when it produced less than 5 bushels per acre. This is just the recent 200 years of history. Part of what drives this happens as the farmers get squeezed for cheaper food, causing them to rotate one less field or some other short cut when innovation fails them.

For reference, much of what I am referencing comes from Masanubo Fukuoka's work in Japan. Although he calls his work "do nothing farming", it would be a misnomer to think this means that nothing is done. "Doing nothing" mearly represents the ideal case, or Mu. In grotesque summary, the acts of tilling, fertilizer, weeding, and herbicides have all proven to diminish crop yields. His yields were in the 30 bushels per acre neighborhood (no till, weeding, fertilizers, and near zero labor, virtually left wild, but with subtle and well timed day or two efforts). Before you point to the efficiency of today's yields, remember that he doesn't rotate fields, plus he has multiple grains producing on the same acre. His effective yields are comparable to today's high energy efforts with little to no labor (work smart).

Recent revelations in soil ecology explaining the gist of what Fukuoka's research reveals:

http://www.energybulletin.net/23428.html

You can practice hydroponics out in a field as long as you can keep up with the increasing labor requirements. The problem is keeping up with the work you make for yourself in subsequent years based upon a finite resource. Increases in energy perpetuate the pyramid scheme.

We know this is how soil functions, because we know how to directly reverse it. We don't even mind that you have hand full's of salt on the remaining sand:

http://www.permaculture.org.au/greening.htm

China would have been able to keep going with famine cycles for much longer, had they not adopted the hybrid seed, fertilizer, and herbicide regimen. Look into their child swapping traditions to get an idea on how common famines have been over the ages.

The Chinese have practiced fertility management over the ages much more effectively than most of the world.

Then methods clearly exist for agricultural practices that are sustainable over millenia. QED.

The question is not whether current industrial agriculture is sustainable; the question is whether agriculture is sustainable, and 6,000 years of farming in some places -- as well as Fukuoka, Ingham, and similar agriculturalists -- suggest that it can be, if one uses sensible techniques.

famines (only experienced with agriculture)

Any evidence for this claim?

I'm guessing not, especially since extensive research on this shows you to be utterly wrong:

"With an extensive database on nutrition and food availability in preindustrial societies, which was compiled in the 1950s, Benyshek and Watson compared twenty-eight hunter-gatherer societies with sixty-six agriculturalist societies. They detected no link between lifestyle and amount of available food, or between lifestyle and frequency or duration of food shortages. Feast-or-famine cycles were probably common throughout human prehistory, and they may indeed favor thrifty genotypes, the anthropologists say. But the cycles seem to have been equally likely among foraging and farming economies. (American Journal of Physical Anthropology 131:120-6, 2006)" (link)

Just because you believe something doesn't mean it's true.

For reference, much of what I am referencing comes from Masanubo Fukuoka's work in Japan.

I saw an apt quote in the Internets a while back: "Beware the man of one book."

Many people have a bias, and many people do...less than objective presentations of their observations. I'm sure Masanobu has done some fine work -- and I agree with a certain number of his (less spiritually-based) views on sustainable agriculture -- but I'm just as sure that he's not presenting a full and unbiased view of agricultural practices.

When a man talks about science as if it's a bad thing, I begin to suspect that he may not be giving me a fully objective appraisal of the situation. That doesn't mean he has nothing valuable to say (he does), but it does mean that one needs to be careful to accumulate a balanced perspective.

Any evidence for this claim?

The problem is that there is no evidence to support the claim that famine happens to Foragers as much as it happens to Agrarians, or that it ever happened to Foragers. You are asking for a proof of a negative. Could you speculate that it happened? Sure, knock yourself out. That's what the article you posted says that they did ("probably" and "may".don't mean they have any basis to state such a thing as fact).

Here's a plausible scenario: Super volcano blocks out the sun for a year.

In this case, for farmers, the crops will surely fail, or be delayed for a year, and surplus must be relied upon. The foragers have a lean year ahead, along with all the animals that they can survive by eating almost exclusively. Many edible bugs will be unaffected, so a change in foraging style will be needed for a time. If you think the Foragers are vulnerable in this sort of crisis, then you don't know much about Foraging. Several animal food sources will be unaffected. For agriculture, no sun for a year would be very bad for the population, as not enough surplus will be available for such a disaster. In fact, famine often coincides with food distribution issues, not as much crop failure. Floods and drought don't affect forests to the extent they affect a field of exposed dirt.

Don't ask for a proof of a negative, it just happens this way, due to the water retention and self-circulation of forests. I already gave you a source for this from Energy Bulletin. Remove the forest and you get drought. Drought cycles translate to famine cycles. The drought eventually becomes semi-permanent.

When a man talks about science as if it's a bad thing, I begin to suspect that he may not be giving me a fully objective appraisal of the situation.

Are you saying that science should be trusted implicitly? Beware of "new scientific understanding" coming your way. Science is merely the best understanding given the facts that we know about. This doesn't mean that science should be trusted as if fact. In the case of human health and nutrition, there appears to be confusion within the scientific and medical establishment. As energy reserves deplete - whether tomorrow or years from now, science will be looking for ways to reduce agriculture's energy foot print. Considering their best guess, thus far, is more in line with economics, I'm skeptical about science when it comes to our food sources.

In the meantime, you can go get your hands dirty and see for yourself what happens when you follow science compared to what happens when you follow Fukuoka and Permaculture paths. Don't believe me and don't believe anything you read, but believe what you see and try for yourself. The worst thing that can happen will be that you spend less time at the grocery store. The upside is that you avoid all those medical bills from such poor food choices, prepare an insurance strategy against disaster, and save some money. The labor costs are primarily upfront: land forming, sheet mulching, some tree planting to get things started, and time observing what works and what doesn't.

Fukuoka started out as a respected scientist. As one scientific theory proved to be bunk after another, he became increasingly disenchanted by modern agricultural science. In fact, he became alarmed enough to write books, travel the world, and be quite noisy regarding his view of science as a result of his work. Considering his success using "do nothing" farming with close to insignificant energy inputs matching harvests in his area using modern techniques (hybrids, fertilizers, deep plowing, pesticides) and huge energy inputs, I'll be trying his methodology for myself. I can't grow rice, as he does, but that isn't the point of his work. I'll be starting with groundnuts (Apios Americana) for my own area.

The problem is that there is no evidence to support the claim that famine happens to Foragers as much as it happens to Agrarians, or that it ever happened to Foragers. You are asking for a proof of a negative.

Incorrect. I am clearly and explicitly asking for evidence to back up your claim. If you are unclear on the difference between "proof" and "evidence", I'm sure there are web resources you can consult.

Moreover, evidence certainly does exist; e.g., the paper I cited. It's not proof -- hence the use of words like "probably", but that wasn't the question.

That's what the article you posted says that they did ("probably" and "may".don't mean they have any basis to state such a thing as fact).

Incorrect.

"Probably" -- in the context of a paper using proper scientific methodology -- means "the balance of evidence supports". They don't have enough evidence to state that the thing is certainly true, but they do have substantial evidence supporting it, and no or trivial counter-evidence.

Here's a plausible scenario: Super volcano blocks out the sun for a year.

Your idea of "plausible" obviously differs from mine...and from that of the editors of the American Journal of Physical Anthropology, apparently.

Are you saying that science should be trusted implicitly?

If I had meant to say that, I would have.

Instead, I said that anyone bashing science should be viewed with a healthy level of skepticism. One of the tenets of the scientific method is objectivity, suggesting that a man who bashes science may not be fully in support of objectivity either. Indeed, science-bashing is in modern culture most commonly associated with cranks or religious fundamentalists, either of whom tend to have...less than objective messages they attempt to promulgate.

Not all science-bashers are cranks or fundies, of course, but there is an unfortunate correlation, and hence a prudent observer would take science-bashing as a warning sign to examine the evidence carefully and from multiple perspectives.

Considering his success using "do nothing" farming with close to insignificant energy inputs matching harvests in his area using modern techniques

Hardly surprising - Pimental reported much the same when comparing organic and conventional farming methods. That's not the point of modern farming practices, though. Modern farming practices aren't intended to maximize yields, they're intended to maximize profit. While linked, those aren't quite the same -- detailing a man to tend every acre personally would undoubtedly raise yields, but would be vastly more expensive.

Which, of course, is one of the reasons I'm skeptical about a terrible dieoff if oil supply falls precipitously. There are well-known farming techniques -- such as Fukuoka's -- that can return similar yields to what we're getting now, but for far less energy input. They require many more man-hours of work, though, but that'd be fine in a "post-peak crash" scenario, since the standard assumption is that many oil-related jobs will be lost, so the extra manpower will be readily available. So all that'd be likely to happen is that food would get more expensive; considering how cheap it is now (in the West), there's plenty of slack for that before serious problems start.