137 comments on Trade, Transportation and the Chinese Finger Trap
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
137 comments on Trade, Transportation and the Chinese Finger Trap
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
- What "Lower Consumption" Means
- Tricking and Treating the Future
- Meeting Energy Decline Part-Way - Potatoes?
TOD:Europe
- The US stimulus and "green jobs"
- EROWI - energy return of water invested
- An interview with Stoneleigh - the case for deflation
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Saturday 7th November 2009
- The Bullroarer - Friday 30th October 2009
- Details of Solar Flagships Released
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”
—Winston Churchill, November 1936
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
So if those four are counter-examples -- and they involve the cradle of western civilization and the cradle of eastern civilization -- then what are the examples of this actually happening? For something that "really is a general trend", I would assume there are dozens of examples of agriculture leading to massive-scale desertification; what are they?
(I'm also surprised you listed Tigris/Euphrates as a counter-example; I was under the impression that part of the reason for the decline of Sumeria was lowered agricultural productivity due to salt accumulation on the field from their method of irrigation.)
Well, the whole of the Mediterranean (the Greek and the Spanish didn't make their fleets out of the present-day mediterranean vegetation) and the Middle East (the cedars of Libanon, North Africa: the bread basket of Rome). Each time the soil in Mesopotamia became bad enough, the current empire retracted and after a few floodings it was ready to go again.
And farming might be sustainable for millennia in its current form, that's not enough. It must be sustainable practically forever. Even as little as the loss of 1 mm of soil each year is 1 m per millennium. That's unsustainable, the exact period that it goes on depends on the soil supply. How much soil has disappeared in the Dust Bowl area, and how much is left? We can be certain that that kind of agriculture in that area is *not* sustainable.
We're talking about food, not forestry. And Spain is a net food exporter, with a vastly larger population than it had in the days of the Armada, so I really don't see that it supports your claim.
Italy and Greece would be better examples -- both are net food importers -- but both have strongly increased their food yields over the last decades (Italy, Greece), allowing them to support vastly larger populations than in their empire years.
Egypt currently produces enough food for about 2/3 of its population, or about 50 million people. i.e., Egypt alone could feed 80% of the Roman Empire circa 300AD; North Africa could still be the breadbasket of Rome.
In fact, almost every major agricultural area currently supports many more people than it ever did in the distant past. Even Iraq produces millions of tons of cereals, despite its agricultural capability being degraded by successive wars and sanctions, which is most likely more than it produced in Babylonian times.
In fact, the strong trend seems to be that ancient breadbaskets are still strong producers of agricultural goods, which is directly counter to your argument.
One way or another, farming 1,000 years from now will be very different from farming now -- the odds that we'll be at a comparable level of technology are vanishingly small.
I do agree with you that we should avoid long-term damage or degradation to our fertile lands, though.
Of course the yields have increased due to mechanization and chemical fertilizer. What the yields would be now with ancient methods is speculation, though I speculate 'a lot less'. But both mechanization and fertilizer are dependent on limited resources, that are not impossible but very hard to replace, indeed, and will certainly become more scarce in the mid-term future.
So I think we can conclude that long-term agriculture is not impossible, but far from a happy-go-lucky endeavour.
(I appreciate the follow-up of the discussion.)
I'll agree with that.
And that. :)
Yes! Irrigation and plowing release salts that can otherwise coexist in the soil without a problem. Watch the video:
http://www.permaculture.org.au/greening.htm
Those are hand fulls of salt he is showing you from Jordan. So where did he put it? "It's not supposed to be possible", they told him. With agriculture, it isn't and you get desert.
The process depends on the soil and ecology being damaged. Grasslands are the most vulnerable, but that is what you get when you clear a forest to grow yet more food for a "growing" population. Since the forests are so integral to affecting climate, rain, and increasing soil humus, they take longer, but will become deserts, too. Bring the forest back to the yellow river and it will run clear, again.