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If you have evidence - back it up with data. If you dont - shut up.
Here is what you said yesterday about WT:
and here is what you said above about Deffeyes:
It is called hypocrisy.
You seem like a nice kid, that has a lot to learn. Sit back, take your own advice, listen to the giants like Deffeyes and Simmons, and the crusty old posters like Alan, Airdale, and Don et al that actually know what they are talking about when it comes to life experiences. This site is not about who can shout the loudest and be the most demeaning to other posters. It is about taking in a lot of different perspectives about Peak Oil, and reflecting quietly on how you personally are going to deal with it. And if you have someting ORIGINAL to say - please say it - but dont just lurk looking for the next "victim" to attack with vicious inuendo and smears.
Francois.
First of all, that comment wasn't even directed at WT, so right off the bat your opinion can be considered completely out of whack! :laughs:
Second, I quoted Prof. Deffeyes. Those were his words, written on his blog, following his admissions at market manipulation. I'm laughing at the irony of it all. I'm sure you're probably attaching an emotional reaction because you feel bad at being so blind.
However, there IS a difference between both cases. On the one hand, I was referring to how someone tries to add an EMOTIONAL element to a scientific debate, on the other, I am laughing at someones OPINIONS whose hands have been found caught in the cookie jar.
Notice the disconnect you are obviously experiencing between SCIENTIFIC DEBATES and OPINIONS. If anyone is being hypocritical, its you!
And I don't need to 'prove' anything to anyone. Prof. Deffeyes, in his OWN WORDS described how he advised several hedge funds on peak oil, and about how one particular hedge fund in Japan 'made a hell of a lot of money' on his advice. Further more, he explicitly states that his own investments 'a la 'non-sucker bets'' made him a very wealthy man 'on paper', and that he was grinding, gritting and crunching his teeth at the recent spot oil decline.
How on gods green earth could you possibly try to defend this man? No human being is above reproach. It's truly sad that his acknowledgment of the sucker-punch he made on the rest of the world is ignored by this community. Someone should hold him accountable.
It's going to only get worse over the next few years after we reach a new production maximum every few months :laughs:
Dear Hothgor,
Allthough you get a lot of nasty remarks here on TOD, you must understand that you are of great value to the Peak Oil comunity. I'll explain why:
You represent how the most people on the planet are. People that live in an isolated cognitive environment that have the following live credo:
"I don't care about facts and science, I mainly form my opinion on feeling and popular bits of info that the mainstream media feed me".
So your reasoning about and your reactions to the peak-oil phenomana represent the reactions most people will have. And it is important to know how those people react.
So thank you for posting! Keep it up please!!
We need to know....
Roger from the Netherlands
You seem to have selected particular labels to fit me that do not necessarily reflect my opinions as a whole. And while I appreciate your obvious humor and sarcasm, I have to point out that I have stated on numerous occasions that I believe in Peak Oil, that I believe that at some point oil production must peak and then decline forever, and that our present way of life is unsustainable.
My main objective however is to point out to people that a world without FFs doesn't require us to revert back to a pre-industrial agrarian aristocracy. I've tried my best to emphasize electrification of our transportation, though unlike Alan I think our needs can best be served by electrifying cars in the medium term. In addition to that, one of my majors in College was a study on improving efficiencies in a work environment and various systems.
With that said, our use of energy world wise is grossly wasteful. The idea of building our modern economy on the ICE which utilizes less then 15% of the energy content of oil is, to put it mildly, idiotic. The uses of various hydrocarbons are far to numerous to waste burning in a machine that has over 600 moving parts built by the lowest bidder in some third world country.
To that end, however, I can not stand people who proudly proclaim that the end is near and that we must experience some form of grand hardship. Our lifestyle does not warrant some kind of divine punishment. The old adage that no good deed goes unpunished should have no sway in our future.
Unfortunately, people do not like to be criticized on their misguided beliefs. And they certainly don't appreciate anyone attacking their self serving 'prophet'.
Dear Hothgor,
That is interesting. When do you think peak oil will happen?
And what do you think decline rates in production and export will be?
I think you are right about the potentials of conserving and wiser energy usage.
My own experience is that it is quite easy to cut ones energy expendure by 20% without any real sacrifices at all. Quite a nice experiment to do I can tell you.
Ofcourse the Jeverson paradox is messing things up here ;-)
Roger from the Netherlands
Around 2015
Around 2-3%
I look at total liquids, individual declines will be greater obviously.
Decline rates in conventional oil are in modernized oil fields between 8 and 15 %.
Where will all the compensating extra oil comming from? Oilsands? Bio?
How about new fields? Do you think the oil companies of the world are going to stop developing new fields when we peak? New fields are continually coming online to offset the decline of existing fields. One day they won't be quite enough to offset the decline and we'll start to see a slow decline in production.
News flash.
Discovery of your so-called "new fields" peaked 40 years ago, in the 1960's. (Welcome to TOD --trust, but villify)
Ener Ji's point was that to maintain the 40-yr R/P ratio, the field decline rate matters not if discoveries and reserve growth keep pace. Your graph is disingenuous i.e. it fails to reflect that the magnitude of Reserve Growth has allowed new discoveries to slide.
Based on 18 recognized estimates, URR (including Discoveries & Reserve Growth) has grown 140-Gb/yr since Y2k as compared to the 48-Gb/yr fifty year average. This is despite the fact that we consume 31-Gb/yr. To what end would an R/P ratio of 50 yrs or 60 yrs serve? The marketplace says "none".
The last year that the URR AVG actually decreased was 5-GB in 1994. The last year that Remaining Reserves AVG declined was 9-Gb in 1998.
There is no doubt that URR is increasing due to economic factors. The rate of growth in the next two decades may be correlated to Pricing.
please click link to see whole graph: http://trendlines.ca/TrendlinesPeakOilURREstimatesGraph70106.gif
That's the best that you can pull out of your bag of shill's tricks, Freddy?
Come on, we already know about that tired old numbers game.
Yes, I'll grant you that we grow the "Reserves" number to any large value we want simply by counting up the hydrocarbons on Jupiter, Neptune and the moons of Endore.
As a matter of fact we can arbitrarily double the "Reserves" count for East Texas.
This scary, but I'm going to do it.
Watch this:
I hereby declare that the "Reserves" numbers for East Texas are now double of what they were yesterday.
Even I'm surprised. Jeffrey of Westexas just called me. Seems production in Texas went up 100% just seconds after I proclaimed that its Reserve numbers are hereby doubled. They can't believe it but it's true. Oil production doubled overnight in Texas. It was that simple. All I had to do was utter magic words.
"Reserves".
Them are powerful words.
It is unfortunate that the concept of Reserve Growth as explained by many at TOD has escaped u thus far. Perhaps a basic tutorial at Wikipedia would assist u in that regards. It continues to amaze us how folks like yourself presume that we use the same oil three times and don't have to replenish. Stick in there, eh...
New field discovery may have peaked but they are still being discovered, and old fields that were not put into production because there was lower hanging fruit will continue to be put into production especially as the price of oil rises. Therefore yes, new field production will continue to partially offset the decline of production post peak and diminish the rate of decline.
The only recognized modeler to incorporate aggressive decline rates was Chris Skrebowski's Megaprojects with its 3% to 7% progressive rate. But upon review and the realities of exhausting 1.2-Tb of Reserves over the next hundred years, he prudently revised his Decline Rate to 2.5% in December. To seek the average Post Peak Net Decline Rate, one must average the declining fields with the hundreds of undeveloped fields.
Like Colin Campbell, Chris has decided to put integrity of data and good science ahead being "ambassadors" of the Peak Oil message of immenency. They understand that being forthright and credible is the foundation for being heard.
Hothgor-
If he didn't make them money, they probably wouldn't invite him back...
The problem is that he is using his influence and political clout to adversely affect the market in ways that they were trending against. He and disguise his motives by saying hes doing it for the benefit of mankind, but he most likely had access to information that the rest of us did not and profited from that knowledge by investing in oil options before the same hedge funds he advised did so.
The sad thing is you guys keep throwing money at the 'prophet'. What has he done for you in return??
I think I've clicked on 2 ads on TOD. Does that count as giving money to the prophet?
Re: It's going to only get worse over the next few years after we reach a new production maximum every few months :laughs:
Normally, I wouldn't bother with you, Hothgar. But I am in the mood to settle your hash here and now.
Since you bring little of substance to our discussion here on The Oil Drum, and insofar as you are a constant disruptive presence here, there has been some speculation as to whether you are a paid troll. I myself have hoped this was true sometimes, for if you are doing this because you enjoy it, only psychiatric intervention would have any hope at all of making a difference in your life. Should you go that route on your own, follow the meds instructions of the doctor faithfully. Don't get discouraged if the first ones you try don't work. Perhaps the magic bullet will come your way. On the other hand, if you are paid to do this work, your moral situation is hopeless and, as a human being, you have failed to comprehend the first thing about life that really matters — the idea that we are all in this together. Still, at least your behaviour would be understandable in some rudimentary way.
Now, the people who run this website are good people, fair people, the kind of people who will bend over backwards not to stifle debate. If it were up to me, your sorry ass would have been tossed a long time ago. I am not of the same good quality of the powers that be around here. Thank God for their restraint.
My advice to you — in the context I have stated here — is to take a good look at yourself, at who you are, and then think about the better person you might become. I look forward to the day when you are able to do that.
adieu,
Dave
Believe me, I will keep your comments in mind.
Now, what will you do if what I said is true and we do start setting new production heights?
I am perfectly willing to be wrong but, alas, can find no convincing arguments that I am. But, I have not specified a timeframe, have I?
What would I do if were wrong about peak oil? Happening in 2005? 2007? 2010? 2015? 2020? The last date is a scant 13 years from now. That's not a long time away. Any of those dates signal a significant problem for mankind. You see the meaninglessness of your question, I presume. It's coming, though I tend to think sooner rather than later.
Yes, please bear in mind what I said.
Rejoice and cry --both at the same time.
Rejoice because Peak is not yet.
Cry because we continue to pump toxic pollutants into the air with no end in sight.
Hothgor.
I dont agree with you, but you are putting up one hell of a spirited defence of your initial attacking position :-)
due you have any ancestors located at any of the following?
The 44th Foot on the retreat from Kabul.
Greasy Grass
Rorkes Drift
Spion Kop
Keep it up Hothgor! Roger is right, you are a pretty good benchmark example of the Man on the Clapham Omnibus.
Sorry, should read do you, not due you.
Was on the phone about a nixed crew change.
I don't think Hothgor is a twentysomething from small town Texas as some have portrayed him. I'm around young twentysomethings all the time as a college teacher, and this is not how they write (speak).
Thats because most twentysomthings are obsessed with 24, iPods, and a fixation on 'conquests' instead of worrying about the future that they will inherit.
i think hotgor is a dual cyberperson, the alternate user name of someone rather familiar at tod. isnt there a good linguist in the house that can bust the sucker ?
I'm no linguist but it seems to me that Hothgor frequently writes "then" instead of "than", like in
See second Hothgor's post in http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/19/8553/6333#44
I did not see the same common mistake in other user's comments.
No, he thinks I am Hothgar. He actually suggested this in Sunday's Drumbeat:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2201#comment-150748
The fact that nobody responded to such a wild suggestion should have clued him in that he was barking up the wrong tree. I started to respond, but defending myself all the time gets tiresome. So, I let it slide. But elwood, who I actually think is OilCEO :-), is quite out in left field on that one. After all, does it make sense that I would go to so much trouble to disclose who I am and what I do, and then risk everything by using a sock puppet? Do you think the site owners can't track IP addresses? Look back when Hothgar first started posting and you will see that we butted heads more than a few times. I know, I know. Probably just to cover myself. I will never understand what get's into some people's heads.
Elwood, don't ever try to convince anyone you would make any kind of detective. Your sleuthing skills stink.
and cant the site owners track the ip address of oilceo ? and furthermore, cant one dualcyberperson have more than 1 IP address ?and dont ever convince anyone you are a logical thinker because your logic: highly stinko
and cant the site owners track the ip address of oilceo ?
I see that your sarcasm detector is broken.
and furthermore, cant one dualcyberperson have more than 1 IP address ?
So you still think you are onto something, eh Sherlock? Well, knock yourself out with this theory. See if you can get anyone else to agree with you.
and dont ever convince anyone you are a logical thinker because your logic: highly stinko
Yet I am not the one that thinks one of the TOD Staff Members - who posts under his real name and tries to always provide full disclosure - has a sock puppet. Again, knock yourself out. Don't expect to get much support for that idea, and don't be surprised if people laugh at you. Also, don't expect Scotland Yard to call.
now robert, aren't you the one who gets so offended at others misinterpreting your position: "no, he thinks, i am hothgor" and "yet. i am not the one that thinks........"
maybe you should go back an re read the posts and view them from a logical (not emotional) perspective.
..... and arent you the one so offended at "ad homennem" attacks ?
imo, if you could learn to recognize and admit when you are wrong you wouldnt be constantly "defending yourself".
making a move to a new job, new home and "across the pond" is no doubt stressful so dont you owe it to yourself, your family and your employer to................CHILL OUT !
Hothgor, from his writing, is male, went to school in the US, is a native English speaker, most likely is in college or has a college degree (high or low).
He has done some writing in his life. The writing might be only college type essays and posts on the internet, or it might be more, but not professionally at a high level. His written language is very standard and very clear, particularly in his choice of vocabulary. (with mistakes etc. due to haste)
Some of it does have a ‘young’ or ‘college’ air, where the balance between formality and ‘fancy’ or ‘written’ (read useless) forms, and the message, is not well handled:
You seem to have selected particular labels to fit me that do not necessarily reflect my opinions as a whole.
The old adage that no good deed goes unpunished should have no sway in our future.
I won’t detail the college-like aspects of that, readers can feel it.
Rapier would never produce such sentences.
His age: under 38 though I feel 38 is pushing it. The content is another matter, that sounds very young.
Well a lot of attention is being paid to him! I should stop. Stop.
noisette, are you a linguist ?
"why do you feel the need to misrepresent my statements "?
the words of an experienced technical writer or a missunderstood 30 something ?
Man, I really need to start working on that! :laughs: English was never my strong point in school either.