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Euan, the main point that comes out of peak oil is that growth is unsustainable. If we can't transition to zero growth, we will get collapse. If we can transition to zero growth, we'll have a completely different society. If you want to believe in a magical world of continued growth, using alternative this, that and the other, that's fine but can you come up with a convincing argument for why that growth will not hit limits?
I don't want to dilute the EV discussion and maybe we can take this over to Drumbeat, but if growth is your worry, it is not well founded. By 2025 most g-20 nations will see flat GDP because of aging population. Working age segment of societies will be decreasing. This is not a japan problem. Europe is on the heels. By 2040, much of the world will have a reverse triangle demographic. Lotsa Old fogies at the top. Few kids at the bottom.
This includes China. Believe it or not their one kid program is twenty years old and there are huge ramifications. By 2035 china will have more over 65-yr olds as a % of society than the usa.
The middle east is one of the few areas of the globe that will maintain a conventional demographic mix after 2050.
Have a look at India
Freddy - if you like movies, I'd thoroughly recommend "Children of Men".
This isn't a drumbeat. Invoking a SciFi movie to make a point is very irresponsible.
Hothgor - if you are not being satirical then you need to get a life. Star Wars and Star Trek are science fiction. Children of Men, Brazil and Blade Runner are futuristic. Life of Brian is a historical documentary. And Freddy, stuck up there in the Yukon, needs advice from time to time.
Anyone who hasn't seen the excellent futuristic drama Children of Men should try to do so.
If it is just half as good as Blade Runner I'm sold, going to watch it.
I found the first half great, interesting story, imaginative glimpse of a dysfunctional near future. Set in the UK too which makes a nice change. I found the ending weak though and my female company wasn't so impressed, a bit too grim!
.
Don't worry, the american are doing their best to reduce the demographic mix in the middle east.
Hmmm... but at the moment we waste vast amounts of energy. This technology appears to offer 100% energy savings in one of our most energy consumptive activities.
I used to agree with what you just said about economic growth - but I'm changing my mind.
The main problems with growth may be more realted to demographics (see Freddy), debt and climate change
Most of the long term Demand Outlooks are based on GDP growth, not projected Supply flows. Unfortunately, most of them end in 2030. While we assume that post 2030 "apparent" Demand will continue to grow, my initial sentiment of global demographics tells me that we may reaching a Peak of working age (20-65) persons at around 2025.
Thus while we have fears at the moment that the post peak decline may be detrimental, the severence of that may be overstated when one considers that there will be several g-20 nations with negative GDP and absolute relevant populations will be coming down. There is no doubt in my mind that we will see global pop'n Peak around 2045. The scary part is that some countries will see their demographic mix move from 4 workers supporing one elder to one or two workers supporting one elder. Real financial burdens ahead.
No doubt? I've been keeping an eye on the CIA World Fact Book estimate of world population growth. That, combined with a 2000 estimate by the UN, it looks as though growth has remained fairly stable at 1.14%. So it hasn't come down for about 6 years, at least. What makes you think it will come down to zero(other than through collapse)?
On the question of economic growth. Whatever stops economic growth, whether it is peak oil or some other factors, it will have a profound effect on many. If that decline continues (and without increasing energy, how can it?) the effects will be multiplied.
And the growth in India and China will keep the demand curve going up for quite some time yet.
Of course it will hit limits, any extrapolation of an exponential can show you that. The question is how and when.
Its far more plausible to me that we will expand into much of the solar system before we really start to feel limits.
What? Do you not feel that we are quite close to limits now? Even if those limits don't start to be felt for a few decades, do you really expect us to have started serious expansion into the solar system before then? What have we done in the last 37 years, since first stepping on the Moon?
It's certainly not far more plausible (unless you can offer some well argued reasons), but we are all entitled to our opinions.