Hoth,
You obviously have me confused with somebody else. The Prophecy I was refering to was Simmons statements on the prospects for Saudi oil. As for "Peak Oil Theory", I find infathomable that someone cannot grasp the concept of a finite resource not having maximum in its extraction rate. Maybe if more than 20% of this country took a calculus course we would be in better shape. The only debate is a socio-econonic one on what the downside of the peak will entail. There is no scientific debate except for when the peak will occur.

Dear Hothgor,

Lets continue our discussion:

I asked you the following:
1) When do you think peak oil will happen?
2) And what do you think decline rates in production and export will be?

You answered:
1) Around 2015
2) Around 2-3%, I look at total liquids, individual declines will be greater obviously.

I asked:
-Decline rates in conventional oil are in modernized oil fields between 8 and 15 %.
-Where will all the compensating extra oil comming from? Oilsands? Bio?

You answered:
Again, you need to look at the bigger picture. An individual field may decline at 8 to 15%. Hell, all the fields may decline at 8 to 15%.
But not all of the fields are exploited at the exact same time.
Because they are not exploited at the same time, the decline of one field is offset by the exploitation of another field(s). In regards to simple oil production in the US, this has resulted in approximately a 4% decline on average. However, we were not producing as much alternative fuels in the past as we are now attempting to do so in the present. In the end, I think the global production decline will come in at roughly 60% the rate that the US experienced, barring of course a catastrophic world war/nuclear exchange.

I asked:
Theoratically you're right ofcourse. But then; you need to have enough new fields to begin with to ofset the decline in existing fieds.
Where do you think the new fields are now, as country after country is declining?
Just tell me; where do you think this new oil will come from? Tell me the fields or the countries that will provide this extra oil??

You answered:
There are too many fields to list, and I doubt even WT could muster up enough tenacity to look them all up if should choose to do so. That being said, the general categories for these new fields are:
Undiscovered fields
Previously discovered economical fields that have not been exploited
Previously discovered uneconomical fields that have not been exploited
Simple reserve growth via improved technology or evaluations of existing fields :increases of the IOIP:
BTW, the Artic is estimated to have approximately 25% of the worlds total undiscovered petroleum resources in its oceans.

Now I ask you the following:

How much new oil will be comming from your stated sources?
a) Undiscovered fields
b) Previously discovered economical fields that have not been exploited
c) Previously discovered uneconomical fields that have not been exploited
d) Simple reserve growth via improved technology or evaluations of existing fields :increases of the IOIP:

Thank you for your answers!

Roger From The Netherlands