The Oil Drum

Of my three points I would say that 1 and 3 are absolute givens.

- The supply / demand balance is marginally in balance
- The entry points to the Russian pipe system in and around Nadym are at maximum capacity. Nordpipe and Bluestream don't address the key bottlenecks, they address the ex-FSU transit issue.

The rights to see a contract obligations fulfilled are precisely the rights to which I refer. If the supply / demand equation looks tight then within the terms of contract negotiation with GAZP you have a reasonable right to understand that GAZP is addressing a. production and b. transportation. Long term (though I hesitate to believe that Europe thinks this way) take or pay contracts have to supply won't suddenly be siphoned off for energy inefficient Severstal or RusAl because the producer got his sums wrong. That is the right that purchasers have. The seller has the right to know, and for that to be enshrined in a contract, that having developed a field 800km from landfall in inhospitable terrain that the buyer will still be buying gas. If these two rights were mutually acknowledged, without histrionics, then there is half a chance that there could be a reasonable debate over Russia and Europe's future energy co-operation.

On the subject of getting sums wrong - I have no reason to believe, and a certain amount of empirical evidence against, that any of "our boys" will be any better at getting big, difficult projects executed on time and anywhere close to budget.