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239 comments on DrumBeat: January 29, 2007
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239 comments on DrumBeat: January 29, 2007
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The "Peak Lithium" theory is typical for the most common fallacy of all peak theories - lack of imagination.
Oceans alone contain billions tons of lithium - the concentration is around 0.18 grams/tonne - this multiplied by 1,340 mln.km3 equals to practically indefinite supply of lithium. Whether we will start recovering it from the oceans is just a question of how much we want to, but one day we will certainly do that if neccessary.
The bridge between imagination and reality has to be built on sound science. We can all easily imagine spaceships zipping around the galaxy at many times the speed of light, but it will never happen.
Just google "extracting lithium from seawater". I did not want to go into technical discussions but I am not talking about science fiction here.
So maybe it's easy to extract mountains of Lithium. Not really my point. You state that what is lacking out there is imagination, and I completely disagree. I think the opposite is the case: I see nothing but imagination, or what I call Fantasy. I'm totally in favor of whatever works. But when I can't get any gasoline to put in my car - and if things go the way I think they will in the ME then that should be this year, maybe even this spring - it won't help my situation at all to know that there's plenty of Lithium in the oceans.
Anyway, batteries are just a storage medium. Still have to generate that electricity somehow...
But sorting out "scientific imagination" from "science fiction imagination" is the whole purpose of our discussions here. In this case I knew there are feasible methods to extract Li from seawater which I had accepted with a good degree of certainty will be working for us.
The lack of imagination I find in the way the picture was described by the article. It basically assumed we will continue extracting and using Li the way we used to and did not allow for innovation at all. In contrast I am allowing innovation, being more or less agnostic on it - it may or may not work. But this is not the point - the point is that this is not the time to tell whether potential innovations will work or not. This is what the article was leading us to the end - kill all Li batteries, because you see Li is will run out.
How energy-intensive is the extraction process? That is the question that needs to be asked in order to make imagination connect with reality.
That's a major problem with many of the Faithful of the godz of Technology and Science.
They usually have the same tendency as the CERA crowd to overestimate the positives "on paper" but neglect the "above ground" limitations such as geopolitical and physical constraints (such as infrastructure buildout etc), international competition and current technical limits to their proposed solution.
Many if not all of the techno solutions may come into play but it may be long after we've suffered through much of the growing pains of the Transition away from Fossil Fuels.
Let's compare the two sides of the story:
1) "Let us not do it because we will run out of this or that resource"
2) "Let's do it because we'll find ways to better extract the resources, find their substitutes and/or use them more efficiently"
At first glance it looks that the first claim is the more responsible one. Hell it's so tempting to just sit around and do nothing while the world around you is going to the waste bin. But if you just applied that same principle to all decisions made by humans throughout their history we would be back to the caves, or even to the trees. None of the things we humans did has ever been indefinately "renewable" or "sustainable". Even the bow and arrows are limited to the amount of wood you can cut to master them. And wind turbines or solar panels do not magically appear off the ground by themselves.
It all comes down to trial and errors and evolution of one technology to another. As long as lithium batteries are the best way to reduce fossil fuels usage available, I will support them until they are proven to fail in practice. Predictions by some fake prophets of doom, persuading us to not even try are hardly of any interest.
Here's what I need:
1. A car with a 200 mile range minimum.
2. Electricity
3. Heat
4. Food
When Lithium batteries can provide some of that I'll be interested. Go, try it, show me something useful! I want it and I'll take it - if, of course, I can afford it...
why do you NEED #1 ?
If you are a rural large animal veterinarian I can understand the "need".
Odd that you do not NEED "#5. Shelter", although perhaps that is covered in #1. Or "#6. Human Contact and Society" with medical care included in #6 or a #7.
Best Hopes for NOT needing cars with 200 mile range.
Alan
Well, my current reality is that I live 45 miles from work, so I need a car. I know, move closer to work. But I live in a small town that might fare better post-crash. And I work in a high-tech industry that consumes mucho electricity. So moving closer to a job that will likely go away soon seems like a bad idea.
Sure, I need those other things too. It wasn't meant to be a complete list, just my major energy needs.
Certainly if there was alternate transportation available I would consider it. At least my (purchased used) Corolla gets 36 MPG. But I'm not holding my breath for light rail between Weare NH and Tyngsboro Mass. I'm all for it, though!
I need to stop paying taxes to subsidize your absurd lifestyle.
No reason at all to suppose Weare will do well post-crash. Can't employ you now.
You are right, it is absurd. People like myself and Sunspot say that every morning as we roll out of bed. The problem is that a quick solution to the problem would mean that I lose a good bit of what I have invested in my rural home -- bought, I should add before I was fully aware of the consequences of buying such a property.
The problem is compounded by the fact that where I live, there is no broadband service so that precludes "telecommuting" (don't even say the word "dial-up." I'm lucky to get a stable 21k connection).
But I hear you. I know I'm only contributing to our current mess. I think about it every hour of the day.
OK. I'll try to focus on the absurdity and not the person. Still. Choices.
You make a very good point concerning 99.999% of the American public.
By the time they wake up to the crisis they will find themselve trapped in unsustainable living situations with very few alternatives available.
And they will not be as rational and calm as you are now when it happens.
Try a satellite modem.
Also if you have some tech savvy friends and hills around you can set up some
nice line of site communications using readily available equipment.
I'd suggest you get very friendly with local employees of the phone and cable companies
also.
http://whitepapers.techrepublic.com.com/casestudy.aspx?docid=133038
Generally if your tech savvy you can cobble together linux boxes to roll
your own network.
Laser links are cool and not that hard just they suffer from rain.
Finally high speed wireless from mobile providers is becoming common.
Last but not least check into buying a T1 or other fixed connection from your local provider or consider multiple pots lines with a linux load balancer.
A lot of times you can buy a 10 line business plan pretty cheap and get aggregate bandwidth thats not bad.
And of course get you lines checked and isolate the noise thats killing your connection.
Thanks, memmel. I periodically re-evaluate what I ought to do. I was very close to signing on with a regional provider of satellite internet service when I discovered that they were no longer taking customers (they promised a return to enrollment in the near future, but I haven't taken the time to check back).
This is the sort of service I get from the phone company (won't say the name but it begins with a "V" and rhymes with "horizon"): This past fall, our phone line had become so static-y that it was unusable even for local calls, so I called the phone co. and asked them to come out and have a look. I wasn't there when they came to do the repair but the tech told my wife that "the cups on the pole are installed upside down and they fill up with water when you get an extended period of rain." I assumed that he had corrected this, but the next time we had a hard rain, the static returned. We're the last house on a dead-end road, so there's nothing in it for the phone company to fix the problem. I'm sure our neck of the woods was without phone and electric for much of the twentieth century and I expect to be one of the first to be cut off when things get tight. Like oldhippie said, "Choices."
Thanks for you suggestions though. I'm going to write them down.
I am not a strong believer in telecommuting. But the broadband situation could most likely be fixed with a little bit of wireless equipment. My parents live in a village close to the middle of nowhere in Europe and they don't even have landlines for phones. The local telecom was dragging their feet about offering anything but cell-phone service and a few kbits/s for internet. A year and a half ago a small but rapidly growing company moved in, put a few antennas on a nearby tower and since then my parents have boradband for less than what I am paying for DSL. We use an IP phone application for free and have even a webcam going for less than what I would be paying for phone cards from the US to Europe.
If you have a line of sight to a nearby place with DSL, you should be able to get broadband. It wouldn't work in the middle of the forest, though...
Thanks, IP. Problem is I don't. Hilly terrain, no cable, no DSL within 4 miles.
That sucks... technologically speaking... since you seem to have a landline, in theory one can operate ADSL with line repeaters/loop extenders (bidirectional amplifiers) in the middle of the line over longer distances but I know that the phone companies are not keen on putting those in for customers. Not sure if there is any way of actually making them do it. Probably not... monopolists hardly ever move unless they are being forced by the government.
For what it's worth, if you haven't seen this, yet, here is what such a device looks like:
http://www.versatek.com/products/ver170r1.html
4 miles is at the limits of what these things can do, but they are, at least in theory, available.
Have you seen this (you would have to be somewhat desperate)?
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2001/pulpit_20010628_000421.html
I know your problem with DSL, cable etc. in rural hilly land To get around "dialup" with its peak speed of 18k for me, I went satelite. Which isn't as good as its cracked up to be. #1 is price-you have to pay for a new modem and a dish, plus installation. Some firms wave part of it. But often a big chunk-300 to 500 depending. Next is spotty transmission-forget it when it rains, or is foggy, or snowing. Then there's price again-monthly charges 3x dialup, for basic service, charges upped quickly if you use more bandwidth than min. Plus they want a credit card, and I liked my old local ISP-pay each month by mail or stopping in.
Still looking? I found Radioshack to be a satelite carrier/jobber for me.
Can you get ISDN service? I know its 'obsolete' technology, but 3x faster than a dial-up is not all that bad. It was all I had for a year in my rural location until DSL came available much sooner than I had anticipated. Want to buy an ISDN modem - cheap?
Withdrawn
I think small towns will fare worse post-crash.
Why? For the obvious reason that they're far from places with money, resources and power, and supplying them is petroleum intensive.
Electricity will not be going away, and in high tech at least there is now significant empahsis on using new technology for electric power efficiency.
High tech typically generates a fair amount of economic value per unit input petroleum.
I would think it's a good idea live in a district with a public utility with a modern nuclear power plant and a high standard of maintenance.
LevinK, I agree with most of what you said here. I did not mean to imply this is not an area to be explored - lithium batteries for storage could be a very valuable and technically realistic part of one of the solutions.
My point is that in general, when it comes to the various alternatives to fossil fuels, so many of the proposed technical solutions do not take into account the various real-world factors that might limit their usefulness. And in some cases pursuit of unrealistic technical solutions will be a drain on efforts to mitigate the effects of peak oil, or may even make the symptoms of peak oil worse (e.g. food vs fuel).
I would love to see advances in robust, reliable and affordable storage systems like lithium batteries.
There's a lot of uranium in the oceans as well, but we will never even attempt to get it out, because it's crystal clear that would use way more energy than it delivers. There's a fortune in gold too, same story, but now in money. Why would lithium be different?
Because it's concentrations is hundreds and thousand times higher than both U and Au, making lithium extraction much easier. And I suggest you better never say never.
Sure there's an almost inexhaustable supply of lithium in the ocean, just like there's probably enough gold in the ocean to make everyone in the US a millionaire. But how would you do that: pump the the entire volume of the world's oceans through some mega ion exchange column the size of Delaware?
Total global abundance of a particular resource, in and of itself, is a practically meaningless number. For example, titanium is one of the more abundance elements in the earth's crust, yet it is a very expensive metal simply because it is very difficult and expensive to separate metallic titanium from the TiO2 ore. The technology of resource extraction cannot be view separately from the economics of resource extraction. The two have been and always will be inextricably intertwined.
If indeed there's 0.18 g of lithium per tonne of sea water, you'd need to process 5,500 tons of sea water for every kg of lithium recovered. To me this doesn't sound like a terribly promising way of producing lithium.
I think a process based on a enzyme like concept may work. We can create a protein or protein like complex with a high affinity for lithium.
This can be attached to a net or web like structure and simply dragged through the ocean or placed in a region with a reasonable current. Periodically it can be raise and passed through a bath that has conditions which cause the complex to release its lithium.
Rinse and repeat. So its basically a ion specific exchange membrane.
With this type of technology we would be able to extract any ion we wish from sea water at minimal cost.
Another similar approach but a bit more sophisticated is to use membrane based ion channels that do active exchange based with selection based on ion channel size.
We could build this today. Mother nature makes plenty of sea shells with similar technology.
Further out we could even farm plankton that were bio engineered to concentrate certain metal salts in their shells. I'd be uneasy releasing something like this in the wild though.
We do use plants now to extract and concentrate heavy metals.
Titanium is not really that expensive. See e.g.
http://doc.tms.org/ezMerchant/prodtms.nsf/ProductLookupItemID/JOM-9809-16/$FILE/JOM-9809-16F.pdf?OpenElement
The problem with it is that even once you have the raw metal (titanium sponge), it is a dog to work with. You need vacuum melting and high temperature machining processes because the cold metal is not ductile enough and wears out expensive tools in no time. It's use outside of high tech equipment like planes and bikes is limited by economic concerns.
"If indeed there's 0.18 g of lithium per tonne of sea water, you'd need to process 5,500 tons of sea water for every kg of lithium recovered. To me this doesn't sound like a terribly promising way of producing lithium."
A ton of sea water contains some 35kg of salt. The lithium is in there. Usually the first step to concentrate the salt is done using solar energy in salt ponds. It might be possible to go from the saturated brine to a concentrated lithium solution more easily than from seawater itself.
But, of course, you are correct. The solar energy needed to concentrate the brine solution in the first place is probably worth more than the lithium itself...
Titanium uses lots of electricity at every stage of processing. Biggest user of Ti is still paint - it's titanium dioxide that makes it white. Good paint has about 3# titanium dioxide to the gallon. Lots of processing to get from ore to white.
"Titanium uses lots of electricity at every stage of processing."
Same for aluminum and ferrous metals where electric ovens are being used. But even electricity can be made in enormous quantities from the sun. We just haven't gotten started, yet. But I don't believe that car manufacturing will profit that greatly from using titanium. It seems more to me that the titanium industry is looking for a new market.
LevinK, let me ask you about this because I hear this sort of response a lot when someone proposes that we are approaching some resource limit. Isn't this more a question of economics or of the cost of the energy required to extract the mineral (Li in this case, but it could just as well apply to any other geologic deposit) than it is a "failure of imagination?"
When I read the Li-ion battery article, I get the impression that the playa deposits in South America are considered as the likely future source and I can only assume that this is because these deposits are the most economical from which to recover Li. I don't doubt that huge quantities of the element are present in seawater, but it isn't like you could strain seawater through a piece of cheese cloth and pull the Li out of it.
When I was an undergraduate, studing agriculture, I learned that "modern" agricultural systems are highly dependent upon fossil phosphorus deposits that occur in relatively few places on the planet. Intrigued by this, I decided to write a paper on the subject and it was while researching the topic that I came across a paper by a mining engineer -- his last name was Emigh, as I recall -- who proposed that this was of no concern because background levels of P in the earth's crust could always be mined if we really needed the stuff. As I recall, this would require mining a mere cubic kilometer or two of the earth's crust every year -- a virtually unlimited supply in the author's view.
What am I not getting?
What you are missing is that historically we have picked fossil deposits and scaled them up, because they were much easier to exploit - the low hanging fruit. With time we became so efficient in exploiting only such stuff that we never thought of using phosphate rocks to do the same thing. And I expect this will continue long after it has become more practical to mine rocks... and this is the whole problem indeed - we have a huge embedded inertia in the system, in the form of lack of experience with new technologies, vested interests in the old technology etc.
IMHO, in the case of fossil fuels the inertia is such that it has the potential to smack us full-speed into the wall, but I don't think that such is the case with many of the alternatives - including lithium batterries, nuclear etc. The impact on such technologies (whatever they say) is so minimal that we'll be able to develop them for centuries if needed.
Well, maybe I'm just being pig-headed but the key ingredient in picking the fruit that is out of our reach still seems to be energy. The Inca of South America apparently built great palaces of stone without the benefits of oxen or the wheel. I can only imagine that meant that huge numbers of low-wage workers toiled long and hard to place those huge stones.
As concerns these more diffuse resource deposits, I see their exploitation as being contingent upon one of two scenarios:
I think the last 150 years of resource extraction would agree with you. Ever since Savary and the Cornwall tin mines we have been using increasing amounts of energy in order to permit extraction of needed resources from lower grade ores.
Seawater may indeed contain a variety of resources but the enegry costs of extraction do not look promising given the anticipated future energy contraints.
"The "Peak Lithium" theory is typical for the most common fallacy of all peak theories - lack of imagination."
I don't want to burst you bubble, but Peak Lithium can't happen, unless we use lithium in future fusion reactors. The simple facts are that lithium in a battery does not get used up at all. It can be chemically recycled. Oil, in contrast, can only be used once. Thus... PO is a reality. To talk about Peak Lithium, at this point, is simply a logical error.
Your argument, while technically correct and economically most likely useless, is not required. We are not facing a lithium crisis. On the other hand, if this was a back handed attack on PO, it failed miserably because you don't even seem to understand the trivial differences between a recyclable material and one that gets burnt to CO2.
That wasn't LevinK's intent. He's very PO aware.
"That wasn't LevinK's intent. He's very PO aware."
In which case I am apologizing for having had that thought.
I don't know how many people realize that PO is an almost unique scenario (Peak Helium, of course, is closely related, albeit with a serious recycling factor except for the party balloon industry and so is Peak Uranium) that does not fundamentally apply to non-radioactive chemical elements. If we rapidly lose elements of low abundance to thermodynamically very hard to reverse dilution, it is because of our own fault ways of handling them. They could all be recycled in close to perfect closed industrial systems. The emphasize is probably on "could", in practice we are wasting a lot of hard to replace elements, too (especially the catalysts of the platinum group).
One thing he is right about, though, by pointing out the alternatives in the article, is that lithium battery technology is only one out of a number of alternatives. It might or might not become the technology of choice for the electric car of the second generation, although it will probably play an important role for the first.
It is also not clear to me why the second or third generation of hybrids could not revisit flywheel technology or, in case of busses, use hydraulic/pneumatic energy storage or use next generation ultracapacitors for short power bursts. Neither system has significant disadvantages over batteries for that particular application. It will be interesting to see which technologies can penetrate the market.
This seems to be a muddled statement:
Your point seems to be that oil is a fuel, so when we extract energy from it (burn it), we need to go find some more. Non-fuel minerals allow for the possibility of recycling, since the constituent elements are not destroyed and need not be dissipated.
Peak Helium is not related to Peak Oil in this sense. It isn't a fuel, and it doesn't burn (its inertness is part of its charm). As you noted, it can be recycled, and can be captured and reused if we don't allow it to dissipate. Granted, once in the atmosphere, helium is practically lost, eventually escaping Earth's gravity well. Because helium is accumulated in many of the same geological formations that trap oil and natural gas, there is a forced correlation between Peak Helium and Peak Oil and Gas (extracting the oil and gas releases the helium, unless we are careful, which we should be, as it is handy stuff).
Uranium is a mineral fuel, but uranium and oil are so different that saying their peaks are closely related is a very weak statement at best. The geology, extraction, and mining economics differ so much for uranium and oil that many of the arguments we use to support Peak Oil are difficult to transform to arguments for Peak Uranium. For example, uranium can be "burned" in several ways. Currently, with light water reactors, we burn about 1% of the uranium, the easiest part to burn, and toss the remaining 99% away as troublesome waste. If we were willing to accept a tripling of cost for nuclear-generated electricity, we could burn that 99% that is now waste, effectively expanding the uranium reserves 100 times. It is very unlikely that a tripling of the cost of oil-based fuels would expand oil reserves 100 times.
On a slight tangent, the most likely form of commercial fusion is a user and consumer of lithium. The deuterium + tritium reaction requires large amounts of tritium, which will most likely be created by reacting neutrons with lithium-6. Unfortunately, the reaction of neutrons with both lithium-6 and 7 result in the loss of the lithium. Fusion reactors will require large reserves of lithium, so if fusion is to take off, lithium is unlikely to be available for inexpensive battery technologies.
"Granted, once in the atmosphere, helium is practically lost, eventually escaping the atmosphere."
That was my point. Helium recycling is taken seriously at places like research labs because in those quantities that stuff is expensive. But when you buy a balloon for your kids or when someone goes on a balloon ride, that helium is lost forever. Not to mention the helium we lose because we don't even collect it...
Uranium, once used in a reactor that is not at the same time a breeder, is lost. Actually... one should say more acurately that we lose the neutrons... by converting them to radioactive stuff we don't want, but I leave it to a nuclear physicist to philosophize about that. I get your point... we are not using most of it but just dig a new hole in the ground and put it in there.
"If we were willing to accept a tripling of cost for nuclear-generated electricity, we could burn that 99% that is now waste, effectively expanding the uranium reserves 100 times."
Or, at that price we could just build more solar cells... they are cheaper and they can't be exploded to "satisfy" religious and ethnic hate.
Fusion, in my view, will never take off. It is a great idea on paper and a lousy one once you are trying to build it. I wouldn't be concerned about the lithium loss due to fusion.
I am not concerned about lithium not being available for vehicle batteries. Even if we ran into production shortages, sodium could work well in vehicles where it does not matter that the battery has to be kept at 300 degrees C. Not to mention flywheels, capacitors etc.. I am not a true believer in the true EV, yet. We will see...
I took the tour of the local large-scale research lab during their educational open house, and got to talking to one of the scientists there about the finite nature of helium supplies. This place uses a lot of helium. Anyway, I nodded in approval toward the clearly labled "Helium Recovery" lines that terminated in each laboratory. He laughed, and told me that the building contractor had built them before consulting with the scientists - all out of schedule 80 pvc - which helium apparently goes through quite easily. Now that the building was complete, no one had come up with the money to replace the lines.
I don't know where you were. The labs where I worked with helium took recyling very seriously. The monthly and weekly statistics were posted on every floor and everyone was careful because the money to replace the lost helium came out of the shared research budget.
If you go to CERN, you will find large plastic bladders floating in nets under the ceiling of some of the buildings. These are part of the gas recovery system for some of the experiments. The bladders are huge, so that in case of a magnet quench (or a thermal failure of the detectors) the large volumes of gas can be safely collected.
Contractors who build research labs in Germany are specialized firms who do not build rental properties one day and an industrial building the next. These people have detailed requirements and they are executed in detail. Having said that, that is how Germany does it - today. That is how all countries which have leading edge research facilities do it - today. But many US laboratories suffer from being built on top of old infrastructure (often WWII/Manhatten Project/Cold War era projects) which have seen several uprades rather than having been built to a modern standard. That does not mean people are not trying hard to do their best in those environments. But it sometimes means that shit happens. And, trust me, in government labs a lot of shit happens. I don't know where that particular snafu happened but it is certainly not the norm I am used to.
1) It is (or was, when I was involved with physics) the same price as scotch.
2) It's not just because of cost. The head of my local cyclotron back in the day lamented that future generations would look back on us as squandering an irreplaceable resource for frivolities - liquid helium is necessary for low-temperature research, and can't effectively be replaced.
I work at a facility that produces infrared detector arrays, and we use lots of liquid helium for cooling every day. There is no effort whatsoever to recover the helium. Everything here is driven by cost. From time to time some of us have proposed initiatives to reduce waste, or save time, and management doesn't seem to care. They only care about immediate costs. Asking them to recover helium when there would be added costs and minimal savings, if any, would be a waste of time.
How much energy does it cost to recycle the lithium from a battery? And in relation to the capacity of the battery?
"How much energy does it cost to recycle the lithium from a battery?"
Based on basic chemistry, I would say that the lower physical limit for that energy is a single charge of the battery, roughly the same amount of energy it takes to make the lithium from its natural salts in the first place. The difference is that it might be done in an electrolysis cell rather than the battery itself. But it might not even be necessary to remove all of the lithium in its metalic state. Here is how I imagine a realistic recycling plant might operate (keep in mind, I am making this up, I did not even take the time to read up on this!):
Most likely the battery recycler will start by discharging the battery, cutting them open and then flushing the electrolyte out with a solvent. The liquid can be filtered and chemically treated to produce the new electrolyte for a new battery without ever going through a metalic state. They will also dissasemble the electrodes and probably grind them up to dissolve the remaining lithium in them. The remaining materials, stainless steel housings, organic/graphite/ceramic electrodes and other materials are then being treated one by one. I would think that the steel can go directly into the usual recycling cycle for ferrous metals and the rest might be discarded (graphite and organics can be burnt, but ceramics are relatively useless, unless they contain other rare elements).
"And in relation to the capacity of the battery?"
It does not matter much because a vehicle battery gets charged/discharged thousands of times. So even if it takes 10 times as much energy to recycle the lithium (or to produce it from salt) as is contained in a single charge, the battery will store hundreds, if not thousands of times more energy over its lifetime than what went into its production. If a single charge/discharge cycle saves only 10% of its total energy in a hybrid in comparison to a non-hybrid (a more realistic estimate might be 50%), the "EROEI" of the battery is still on the order of 100:1.
Please keep in mind that these are storage devices, not energy sources. They have a huge cylce number advantage.
And exactly what is the value of your post? Do you think that Tahil doen't know about the existence of Li in the oceans? Or perhaps he's ignoring it? Unless you're an expert on something, stop trying to act like one.
Do you have any evidence he does?
If there exists a very large supply of lithium (which there does) and a reasonably efficient way of obtaining it (which LevinK's link suggests there is), then dire warnings about a lack of lithium may be misplaced. Not every consultant knows everything, you know; they can make mistakes...even when they agree with you.
He's offered more hard information than you have. Feel free to change that.
This whole site is mostly nonsense, since we know where there is well over three trillion barrels of oil; one trillion [or thereabouts] that hasn't been extracted yet in the normal fashion, and two trillion that is leftover from the extraction in the normal fashion [assuming 33% extraction effectiveness]. So all we have to do is extract it! Oh gee, it's hard. Well since no one has tried yet, how do we know it's that hard?
Levink says that it's easy to extract Li from the ocean. Really? Well, maybe it's easy to extract anything from the ocean [I don't know] but the real question is what is the energy cost of extracting useful amounts. Personally, I would bet on mining the remnants from oil wells as more useful than extracting large amount of anything from the ocean, and that includes hydrocarbons.
And what hard information has he supplied?
Well... that's not what I said. I said there is enough Li in the seas and I said I'm sure we'll be able to extract it eventually at reasonable cost. Take it as a provocation to a debate.
No, not really; he said it is possible to extract it from the ocean, and that it may even be be possible to extract it in an efficient manner, since it's present at a relatively high concentration.
That is not the same as "easy".
That there is a large quantity of lithium available due to its relatively high concentration in seawater (I get 0.17 mg/l, but close enough), making it categorically different than oil in terms of being a resource. He also provided a link to a discussion of an empirically proven (and apparently low-energy) method of obtaining metals from seawater.
And your contribution?
Some of us are trying to make it otherwise. Please join us.
Pitt the Elder, I am amazed that on a website supposedly devoted to fossil fuels, my statement about the known whereabouts of over three trillion barrels of oil is ignored, while you defend Levink's Li in the ocean comment.
I originally believed that the commentary might have something to do with fossil fuels, oil and gas, and not go wandering off into discussions of extraction of metals from the oceans - there was a similar statement a few days ago about the amount of Ur that could be extracted from the seas, and before that somebody suggested that strip mining the earth is a good way of providing Ur. All these methods of course are possible but are they economically or energetically useful? I doubt it, and what exactly do they have to with FF, other than requiring large amounts of FF to power the processes?
As to why I read this site:
1. Leanan does a very good job of selecting interesting stories;
2. Occasionally, there is a good posting providing background material on some related subject;
3. I like the occasional good flame war.
4. I always hope that people will think before posting and realize that what they are writing is not useful.
5. I'm bored.
You appear to be easily amazed, then.
I'm ignoring your comment about oil because it's unsubstantiated, it's irrelevant (presence vs. extraction), and it's prefaced by you moaning about "mostly nonsense", suggesting you're being facetious.
I'm defending LevinK's comment about lithium extraction because it's substantiated by evidence, it's relevant to future energy possibilities, and it's frankly more interesting than anything you've said.
And possibilities for replacing them, yes.
An excellent question, and one that you would have information on if you'd read the provided link.
Perhaps you could provide us with an inspiring example.
Why are you spending time at a site that is mostly nonsense? Surely there are other sites where the nonsense concentration is a bit lower.
To tell you the truth I wanted to spark a debate about where the boundery of reasonable vs unresonable optimism lies... and I'm happy I did.
Tahil's article struck me as one-sided on not even trying to examine the alternatives (which I knew there are), and announcing Peak Lithium within sight. He just assumed we'll mine it as usual and eventually we'll be unable to make batteries for those 60mln.plug-ins. The truth is that there we'll be many decades until we start producing 60mln. of those and claiming that everything will simply stay the same in the meantime is simply not reasonable.
The "Peak Lithium" theory ...
LevinK, I read the article. Then I looked up the battery technology he's selling in Wikipedia. It's a molten salt/sodium design. Just try selling them in Canada, eh! If it freezes you have to heat it up above 150°C, which can take up to 2 days, just to get it going again! As for safety, did you ever play around with molten sodium in the lab? Yeah, that.
As for the Lithium, it's not the commonest element, but isn't particularly rare, either (as you said). And it doesn't take all that much of it to build a Li-ion secondary cell.
A modern Li battery traps the metal in a solid state matrix, so the potential for catastrophe is much reduced -- of course the more energy you have stored in something, the more potential there is for unintended discharge. But on the whole, I'd take the Lithium battery over the molten-salt design every time.