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131 comments on Is There A Painless Way To Fill The Oil Supply Gap?

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ace on January 31, 2007 - 1:54am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

www.energyfiles.com is a great website!!

I like the second last page of this presentation

www.energyfiles.com/presentationfiles/Resource%20depletion%20for%20China%20(Oct%202006).pdf

with the firefighters standing in front of the burning house which is beyond saving and the caption "Plan B". Plan B: take the pain of demand destruction.

Demand destruction perhaps won't be that horrible. New cars are being sold which are smaller and lighter. I live in a big city and most people driving to and from work are the only passenger in their car. There is no reason why a 1000kg of car is needed to transport an 80kg person on a regular basis.

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biffvernon on January 31, 2007 - 7:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ace >Demand destruction perhaps won't be that horrible.
The demand destruction already happening now in Zimbabwe and some other parts of Africa is certainly horrible. We in the rich world are insulated from horror.

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Pitt the Elder on January 31, 2007 - 8:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The demand destruction already happening now in Zimbabwe

Is due to horrendous mismanagement by Mugabe, not the price of oil. Zimbabwe has been suffering like this since oil prices were $20/bbl in 2000, at which time it was in the middle of a ruinous war and just about to embark on an even more ruinous program of farm appropriations.

While all looks yellow to the jaundiced eye, not every problem in the world is due to peak oil, and one only looks silly asserting so. To learn more about the causes of Zimbabwe's problems, I'd suggest reading the brief overview at the CIA World Fact Book (link), or the slightly longer treatment on Wikipedia's Economy of Zimbabwe page (link).

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Gail the Actuary on January 31, 2007 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I would feel a whole lot better about demand destruction if our economy were not debt based. I expect we will have massive defaults on debts with declining oil production. Either there will be some type of govenmental guarantee, and we will have massive inflation, or there will be no guarantee, and the debt-based system will collapse.

There is also the issue of debt going forward. What lender will be willing to provide a 20 or 30 year loan (for mortgages or for commercial purposes) once it is known that oil and natural gas are expected to decline year-after-year, in the future?

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Don Sailorman on January 31, 2007 - 3:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Historically speaking, I think the odds favoring massive inflation are about nine to one.

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131 comments on Is There A Painless Way To Fill The Oil Supply Gap?

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