The Oil Drum

I'm curious whether "the market" knew in advance of the crashing of other major oil fields, like Cantarell, etc. - if not then the market doesn't know dick. I find it hilarious that humans are dumb enough to believe in the goodness of herd psychology (Popular Delusions and the Madness Of Crowds). The market is dumber than 3 ugly blondes blowing 4 blondes, and no amount of wishing upon a star will replace the one time gift of oil. And that's a good thing, because capitalism (resource rape and pillage) is destroying the fricken planet! Better to take the tough medicine now, then learn to live like we belong in an ecosystem instead of rampaging over it with four-wheel monster trucks. The sooner the endless growth virus dies, the better for the future (or should I say, the less dreadful the future will be).

Ron, I've just come from the cold and turned the computer on for the first time today. Oil is up three bucks. Maybe a few billionaires picked up your article sometime today.

Anyway, please accept my compliments for a well-written and informative posting. You've come a long way from your early days on energyresources, baby! Keep it up.

Remember Freddy. I'm the one who repeats things over and over!

But you know, historically speaking, he does seem to understand the part about 'Saudi Arabia' s reduction is nearly double the total cuts it agreed to make under two output accords hammered out at OPEC at meetings in October and December, The Journal said.'

Even more interestingly, while the Saudis keep talking about how they can increase production at any time (which may be true, of course), 'The latest cut means Saudi Arabia will have reduced production by about 1 million barrels per day in the past six months, The Journal said, citing an unnamed senior Saudi oil official.' which is interesting in the light of historically high prices last August. And yes, we can debate nominal price all you wish, but they were cutting production when prices were significantly higher, and they are cutting production now - as a matter of fact, the real world production cuts seem somehow unrelated to spot market prices, actually. Certainly, there could be a number of reasons for the Saudis to cut production - for example, to help prop up fellow OPEC member Iran's ailing economy. (And since we don't talk about history in terms of peak oil, we will just let that little Sunni/Shia split go without discussion.)

The major difference between today and last November is contained in the two quotes from the cited article - but as you have absolutely no desire to discuss even history in the making when discussing peak oil, feel free to save your time by not responding to me, but I think you will have a bit of a challenge contradicting that 'unnamed senior Saudi oil official.'

Good luck. We will all wait for your refutation of Saudi production figures, as it is clear that the Saudis have no knowledge or understanding of oil production.

And do note, I have not given a reason for Saudi Arabia's currently reduced production numbers (obviously, helping Iran was a joke) - I am merely noting that it is essentially beyond dispute. Also beyond dispute is that oil production peaks, and declines - and the way to recognize that decline is because less is produced. And yes, a swing producer follows different patterns, and yes, production can increase and decrease for reasons which have nothing to do with geological reality. However, no one has yet found a way to actually stop oil production from going into a geologically determined decline.

But as you do not seem to feel bound by any historical limits in discussing peak oil, please enjoy discussing how any oil producer, whether Romania or the U.S. or Norway can just increase production, since past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Should be entertaining.