I'm curious whether "the market" knew in advance of the crashing of other major oil fields, like Cantarell, etc. - if not then the market doesn't know dick. I find it hilarious that humans are dumb enough to believe in the goodness of herd psychology (Popular Delusions and the Madness Of Crowds). The market is dumber than 3 ugly blondes blowing 4 blondes, and no amount of wishing upon a star will replace the one time gift of oil. And that's a good thing, because capitalism (resource rape and pillage) is destroying the fricken planet! Better to take the tough medicine now, then learn to live like we belong in an ecosystem instead of rampaging over it with four-wheel monster trucks. The sooner the endless growth virus dies, the better for the future (or should I say, the less dreadful the future will be).

Spot market is not a total market.
There is no point to buy a cheap oil if there is no storage for it.

Wake me up when/if KSA would be unable to ramp up the production in response to the increasing demand (significant price increase).

Were you awake thru aug, while price surged to 78 and sa steadily cut production, and stubbornly continued to cut up to nov, when opec provided a fig leaf for an apparently reluctant sa to enact more cuts?

You could have bought dec o06 futures for $20 on 2002. Shows how much the market anticipates the future. The only change has been that long dated futures are now above the spot price.

That happened first in the Summer of 2004.