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153 comments on DrumBeat: February 2, 2007

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ImSceptical on February 2, 2007 - 2:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Where do you get the 4% decline figure? Out of the money tree?

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abelardlindsay on February 2, 2007 - 4:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.aspo-usa.com/proceedings/powerpoint/The%20Peak%20Oil%20Contex...

* Global annual decline rate: 4% - 6% / year?

So 4% is actually on the optimistic side.
Calculation is ln(.50)/ln(.96) =~ 17 for 6% ln(.50)/ln(.94) = 11.2 years. This is assuming we are past peak of course.

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ImSceptical on February 3, 2007 - 3:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My, you are good, aren't you. Did somebody teach you about logarithms recently? Since quantities aren't logarithmic, the calculation you provided is nonsense.

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Pitt the Elder on February 3, 2007 - 4:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Since quantities aren't logarithmic, the calculation you provided is nonsense.

Your objection makes no sense, a fact which is easy to see if you just plug his numbers back in:

4% decline for 17 years = (0.96)^17 = 0.499587 = 50% less

Tag him for basing the calculation on a wild-ass guess, sure, but the calculation itself is correct.

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