251 comments on Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future
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It seems to me that the discount rate for an individual and even a group of individuals would change as they age. Infants and children are notorious for wanting instant gratification. As the child grows he learns to defer gratification in hopes of a higher reward. However, as one ages and comes to toward the end of life, as in my case, instant gratification becomes more attractive again. Observing other elderly I often sees things like the purchase of a new luxury car shortly before death, whereupon it is sold to settle the estate. Perhaps with the aging baby boomers now in power, a discount rate approaching one is appropriate. I know I don't have much interest in long term investing any more.
Yes this is true. The study on age related discounting showed that older people DID have lower discount rates, but only on 1 the tests of 1 year horizons. For 5-10 year horizons, they exhibited steeper discount rates. Which makes sense.
As one octogenerian said: "at my age, you don't buy green bananas".
I've also seem a bit of this tendency among peakers: the oldest ones understand it all but say "oh well, I'll be safely dead when TSHTF".
Vtpeaknik, you quote a line I have used often. "I hope to be safely dead when TSHTF!" But I never put "Oh well" before saying that. I am greatly concerned with peak oil, global warming and all the other things that affect the earth. But I know there is nothing I can do about it except to try to get a few people to try to save their own ass.
I am a doomer pure and simple. I have thrashed this straw for forty years and have seen people discount and deny every fact that hits them in the face. I know we will do nothing about any of the problems until the consequences proves the doomers were all correct.
All this causes me to grieve for my children, grandchildren and all humanity. I do not simply shake it off with an "Oh Well!" But I cope.
Good bourbon helps.
Ron Patterson
“There is not any memory with less satisfaction than the memory of some temptation we resisted.” James B. Cabell
Oh the many truths of life and discounting that lie therein...
This doesn't mean that there shouldnt be discounting. Economic growth being stunted now by 1% has absolutely enormous cost for instance over a century.
Economic growth being increased now by 1% has absolutely enormous cost for instance over a century.
I agree. Often our proposed solutions are the problem. Grow the economy so we can afford to protect the environment...etc.
Can we have economic growth at 5% globally per year while reducing our ecological footprint by 5% per year compounded over the next several decades?
With this sort of attitude we can't possibly have a rational conversation. We have diametrically opposed worldviews.
The answer to your question depends entirely on how you measure "economic growth".
(If by GDP, then the answer is no way. But GDP is a lousy measure of real progress. It measures activity only, without distinguishing between productive and destructive activity.)