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Lastly: Abdullah, if he announces a peak, runs a serious risk of being targeted by his population for mismanaging the resources. Whaddaya mean it's almost gone?
That's just the thing, though. It wouldn't be almost gone. They would have enough for many more years of production - years in which they can extract absolute top dollar if scarcity is perceived. That's why I don't think the citizens would revolt if they announced a peak. It's not like the oil is going to be gone in a few years and the citizens living under bridges.
But that is still at odds with what the rulers have been telling their people of how they have enough oil to last for a century or more. If they have already produced around 107 billion bbls and they ONLY have another 85 billion bbls that might seem pretty ominous. It is going to take a while for people to understand that they are going to get paid a great deal more money for that remaining 44%.
The other thing the Saudi leadership needs to worry about is how the US is going to react when we realize how they have been lying to us about OUR oil. The Saudis might fear that when we realize that they cannot raise production to meet our projected demand growth, we might decide to take the oil under our protective custody (a la Iraq). We might want to fire their management for malfeasance and put in our own people.
re: Saudi Public reaction and US reaction to such an admission..
This was why I (so vaguely, I guess) was thinking in my first reply about considerations other than immediate profitability increases.. to jump back the 'Addiction' theme, a pusher can't tell his addicted customerbase that he will certainly be running out, even if there's some great benefit 'in the meantime'.. "The last few hits always feel the best!, Even if they cost a bit more!"
Of course jumping to the Drug analogies seems as audacious and uncalled for as comparing your political enemies to the Nazis.. but, there it is. There does seem to be some truth in the analogy.
"There's no greatness without Audacity"
-Oscar Wilde
By announcing a peak KSA would lose the political clout of seeming to be a swing producer. Also it would energize the world to look for alternatives sooner than otherwise. Such an announcement would be evidence of lying which might have political consequences.