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147 comments on DrumBeat: February 8, 2007

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Charles Mackay on February 8, 2007 - 11:50am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

OPEC supply cuts are also underpinning prices. At meetings in October and December the group agreed to remove a total 1.7 million bpd from the market. Figures released by Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit showed OPEC was delivering on its pledge.

"The strong compliance that we saw in December has followed through into January," the shipping analysts said, although there was a slight rebound in late January and early February.

David Dugdale, an analyst at MFC Global Investment Management, said improved OPEC discipline in implementing cuts could be a trigger for a rise above $60.

"It seems that the more reluctant OPEC members are slowly implementing cutbacks, so the resulting impact on inventories in a period of colder weather, coupled with anticipation of further cuts to come, could help push up prices," he said.

Exports from 11 OPEC members were 24.64 million barrels per day in the week ending Feb. 4, Lloyd's said. January exports averaged 22.6 million bpd, down from 22.8 million in December.

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economic...

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Freddy Hutter on February 9, 2007 - 1:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I am very pleased to see this 2-mbd INCREASE in OPEC Exports! The $64k question is whether it is solely Angola or have others joined in?

Angola's recent record Supply is 1.8-mbd. With Feb 1st quota cuts, OPEC should have dropped to 21 or so. The 24.6 number tells me they are reacting to the record 86.2-mbd Call on Demand i've been watching or else Angola just set a new record of 3.6-mbd ... highly impossible.

January very likely was a new Supply Record with my December OECD Inventory bottoming now validated by EIA.

OPEC could not produce in the Autumn cuz the Inventories were at record highs. Fed by the 1.75-mbd surplus production. Near record Demand in December was fed from Inventories. But the price firmed up the moment Inventories hit recent memory lows.

The world is unfolding as it should...

Prices will slump nicely thru April and May below $50 contract.

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147 comments on DrumBeat: February 8, 2007

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