262 comments on Global Warming - a review and a Conference Conclusion
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Lets go back to the Mass Faunal Extinction of the Permian.
Around the Permo-Triassic boundary, a MFE took place, knocking out about 95% of the fauna and flora.
Prior to this, a massive Extrusive Basalt flow occurred. (aka The Siberian Traps). Initially, this probably caused global dimming and cooling as particulates were released by these incredibly extensive flows. However at the same time, these flows generated a large pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere.
As global dimming reduced, it is likely that the CO2 pulse gained primacy, heating up the atmosphere by 4-5 degrees C. This alone would account for some of the land based MFE.
As the planet warmed, the Oceans also warmed. The Marine MFE probably began then. It is possible that Ocean Waters became weakly acid, affecting exoskeletal marine organisms in the food chain, and that deep Ocean layers warmed up resulting in a release of Methane Clathrates. CH4 (with a high preponderance of C12 ) is a significant GHG.
This further pulse of GHG did for the rest of the land animals. It may have raised the global average temperature by a further 4-5 degrees C.
It did not help that at the time, the land masses of the Earth were conjoined (into more or less) supercontinent acting as a massive heat sink in the continental interior.
The Therapsids got it in the neck, allowing the Dinosaurs a chance to evolve and dominate. Along with one mammal-like creature…. The significance of which requires the extinction of the Dinosaurs in turn.
Ironically, this thermal pulse that lead to this mass faunal extinction probably created the huge algal blooms that were buried, later to be cooked into oil.
Key words from the above?
Probably
Likely
Maybe
May
Possible
No one can be quite sure what the current CO2 pulse will bring, or, if Solar fluctuations play a greater or lesser part. Or Chandler Wobbles, or Milankovitch Cycles, or Stellar bursts, or periods of vulcanicity.
But: Since the Hockey stick occurs within the same time frame as the increase in CO2 with the Industrial Revolution, then the precautionary principle may well be worth a considering.
The alternative could be another Methane pulse some time after the current CO2 pulse takes effect.
So far this is pretty frustrating reading. Although the hockey Stick temperature profile is supported by multiple lines of evidence and is the consensus view of scientists who understand the caveats, the counter arguments become close to silly given the rate the rate at which the north pole is disappearing.
On other comment, no one disputes the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and warms the planet. A typical number mentioned is that the earth would be 70 degrees colder if not for the presence of this gas.
History always repeats itself.
Neither history, nor pre-history, which is where your link leads, can repeat itself if the Second law of thermodynamics is valid.
History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme. ;)