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One of the reasons fuel usage is rising so fast is because the number of automobiles is rising. Cities are being built at a scale that no longer permits commuting by bicycle as in the past. The big cities are also undertaking a huge highway construction effort to counter the traffic jams that are already common.
Rather than learning from the mistakes of the west (say Los Angeles) they seem to be intent on repeating them at an even bigger scale.
Any country that can limit the number of children can find a way to limit automobile ownership and usage. They just haven't made this a national policy. If they have any sense they will change this as quickly as possible.
Absolutely. We want them to continue shipping us goods, but it is critically important that they reduce their own consumption, not increase it... bicycles are ok if absolutely necessary, why can't they just walk? Think of the health benefits.
I think the problem comes from insufficient censorship. Why is china allowing pictures of the west, everybody riding cars etc, to be shown in china? Simply leads to unhealthy desires that we all know can never be met.
Certainly, some see a huge expansion in the number of Chinese automobile owners in the next few years:
I can't help but wonder if this isn't just another huge miscalculation on GM's part.
This is a critical point. I expect the rapidly emerging Chinese middle class will seek to emulate the West's desire for personal transportation. If this is factored in to the growth rate in China's demand for oil or liquid fuels in general, I would expect to see an increase in their rate of consumption on a per capita basis. Without doing any math on this, I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese demand growth drives crude prices to the $100/bbl level even if we see worldwide production not peaking.
Asian demand for resources (commodities and energy) has already had a significant impact on prices and has seen some downward adjustment but I expect we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. I am bullish on energy prices based more on growing Asian demand than on a decline of world production.
On the other hand if GM is expecting this I could well be wrong! What does Toyota say?
On the other hand if GM is expecting this I could well be wrong! What does Toyota say?
Toyota in China: Full Speed Ahead
Thanks! Toyota's brains more than offsets GM's stupidity.
...by 2020 China could well topple the United States as the world’s biggest auto market with annual output of 15 million units
Perhaps so, but I suspect that China will only need 7 million units to be #1 in 2020.
Alan
A large part of the rise in Chinese liquid fuel consumption is 22 million of these things:-
They are advertised here
New Scientist had a story about them in May 2005. They are single cylinder diesel agricultural vehicles. There are as many of them as all China's trucks and cars. Because they are so dirty and inefficient, they use a quarter of China's diesel and produce half of the polution from vehicles. They weren't noticed because they were classified as agricultural machinery rather than vehicles. Back in 2002 they were producing 3 of these things for every car.