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76 comments on China's liquid fuels future

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Chris Vernon on February 19, 2007 - 12:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Remember that consumption is increasing rapidly in most oil exporting countries.

This is a vital point. To an importer (like the OECD) "peak oil" isn't half as important as "peak exports". It's the exports that we rely on not the production.

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gtjeffers on February 19, 2007 - 6:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Exactly. I made this point at the Boston University ASPO meeting in October, but it did not seem to resonate. (see my blog: http://mentatt.blogspot.com/2006/10/ive-got-good-news-and-bad-news-octob...)

For thoseof you who where were there, you may remember a great deal of discussion on the period 2005 to 2012, with a several outside this range. In 2007, does that really matter to an importer? If world peaks in 2012, by necessity peak will hit the importers at some point before then.

The exact date of world peak is not nearly as important for the world economy is "world exports peak". That is the stuff we trade.

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