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WT -- as Chris Vernon alluded to "Peak Imports" (or is it Peak Exports"?) I do think we need a serious article posted on TOD that summarizes the likely scenarios and impacts of various models.
"Peak Import/Export: the implications for importing countries"
Are you up for it, WT? Or maybe a collaboration?
WT, your comments thus far could be collected and edited to flow as a short piece, and maybe another TOD contributor would be able and willing to do a few graphs of various scenarios.
This article on China and liquid fuels was superb. Thanks Rembrandt.
I suggested a Net Oil Export symposium for the ASPO USA meeting in Houston, and it looks like I need to start working on a paper on net exports for that meeting. I plan to dial up Khebab and see if he wants to do a collaboration.
I did express the opinion that exports are falling so fast that it may be obvious what the problem is by this fall, but CERA would probably still be calling it a "temporary" problem in any case, so I guess it's definitely worth talking about.
In the mean time, Luis might consider updating his excellent article on Net Oil Exports.
Very cool. Any chance you will post the paper online at TOD, or will you wait until after ASPO USA in Houston?
I don't know what their rules are. We'll see. But in any case, it won't be anything ground breaking--we will just have another year of data.
The primary point I would hope to get across is that declining oil export capacity is a permanent situation, not a "temporary inconvenience," but if the situation weren't so damn serious, it would be comical as Americans (and others) confront the reality of the impossibility of an infinite growth rate against a finite resource base.
Here’s one we (Luís de Sousa) prepared earlier:
World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting in to the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in countries where presently the difference between the two is positive. The outcome of this assessment is worrisome.
If you do a Google search for Net Oil Exports, Luis and I are consistently in the top four, behind two EIA listings.
BTW, note that my current estimate of the 7% decline in net crude oil exports by the top 10 exporters (11/05 to 11/06) matches the estimate in my August, 2006 EB article.
Edit: I should read my stuff more thoroughly. The production decline rate was 7% per annum in the August article. The decline in exports would be higher.