<DrumBeat: February 19, 2007 The Oil Drum JHK: "The ethanol craze means that we're going to burn up the Midwest's last six inches of topsoil in our gas-tanks.">
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76 comments on China's liquid fuels future

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PeakOil Tarzan on February 19, 2007 - 3:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Certainly, some see a huge expansion in the number of Chinese automobile owners in the next few years:

According to Chinese policy researcher Zheng Xinli, by 2020 China could well topple the United States as the world’s biggest auto market with annual output of 15 million units. By then, experts predict, China’s total car ownership could even begin to exceed that of the U.S.

...General Motors is pouring in $3 billion over three years to expand capacity, on the calculation that some 74 million Chinese families can now afford to buy cars.

I can't help but wonder if this isn't just another huge miscalculation on GM's part.

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learning on February 19, 2007 - 10:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is a critical point. I expect the rapidly emerging Chinese middle class will seek to emulate the West's desire for personal transportation. If this is factored in to the growth rate in China's demand for oil or liquid fuels in general, I would expect to see an increase in their rate of consumption on a per capita basis. Without doing any math on this, I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese demand growth drives crude prices to the $100/bbl level even if we see worldwide production not peaking.

Asian demand for resources (commodities and energy) has already had a significant impact on prices and has seen some downward adjustment but I expect we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. I am bullish on energy prices based more on growing Asian demand than on a decline of world production.

On the other hand if GM is expecting this I could well be wrong! What does Toyota say?

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Rethin on February 19, 2007 - 11:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

On the other hand if GM is expecting this I could well be wrong! What does Toyota say?

Toyota in China: Full Speed Ahead

Just as the auto maker has grown rapidly in the U.S. over the last decade, it's now gearing up for rapid expansion in China. In December, Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe outlined plans to ramp up sales 60% during 2006, to 290,000. And ominously for rivals, by 2010, the company aims to triple its current share in China to 10% of the fast-growing market

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learning on February 22, 2007 - 12:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks! Toyota's brains more than offsets GM's stupidity.

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AlanfromBigEasy on February 20, 2007 - 9:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

...by 2020 China could well topple the United States as the world’s biggest auto market with annual output of 15 million units

Perhaps so, but I suspect that China will only need 7 million units to be #1 in 2020.

Alan

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76 comments on China's liquid fuels future

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