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258 comments on DrumBeat: February 14, 2007

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AlanfromBigEasy on February 14, 2007 - 11:41am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Export Land Model in Action

Moscow Now has Sprawl Suburbs

The unpaved, unlit roads are clogged with traffic. Getting to and from work in the center of Moscow is a 90-minute crawl each way

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/13/AR200702...

I have a slight modification to the Export Land Model. When poor nations, with little else to export, reach near zero exports, they will surpress domestic demand in order to sustain the remaining limited exports.

Indonesia is a small net oil exporter by $ (as UK may still be) and an importer by volume. Export high quality oil, import lower quality oil.

Last year Indonesia went without electricity rather than power oil fired stations with imported bunker oil. They were waiting for completion of Australian coal fired generation.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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westexas on February 14, 2007 - 4:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Russian oil production is reportedly up year over year, but domestic consumption is growing even faster, thus. . . lower oil exports. Russia should soon--probably this year--start reporting lower year over year crude oil production. Note that even though oil exports were down, cash flow was up (because oil prices went up faster than exports fell). This will change as domestic consumption gets closer to production.

http://www.prime-tass.com/news/show.asp?topicid=68&id=414927

Customs: Russia's crude oil exports down 2.4% on year in 2006

MOSCOW, Feb 13 (Prime-Tass) -- Russia's crude oil exports decreased 2.4% on the year to 227.539 million tonnes in 2006, the Federal Customs Service said Tuesday.

In monetary terms, oil exports increased to U.S. $96.675 billion in 2006 from $79.216 billion in 2005.

Of the total, oil exports to countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States amounted to 211.171 million tonnes worth $90.755 billion in 2006, compared with 214.436 million tonnes worth $73.826 billion in 2005.

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toilforoil on February 14, 2007 - 5:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"This will change as domestic consumption gets closer to production."

I assume you mean cash flow from crude oil exports. Russia could increase foreign earnings even as exports plunge, if they used oil in domestic industries which generated exports or substitutes for imports. But given the amount of local ethanol consumption and assorted other issues, this is an unlikely scenario. So you are probably right.

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258 comments on DrumBeat: February 14, 2007

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