The Oil Drum

I didn't post this one up top, because it's subscription-only, but maybe someone who has a subscription can give us details...

Aramco Adds More Projects to Upstream Push

State giant Saudi Aramco has started planning long-term expansions at three oil fields -- Shaybah, Berri and Safaniyah -- adding to its current slate of huge projects, according to details of internal plans obtained by International Oil Daily.

So in two to three years time Saudi will be claiming around 7 million barrels a day of spare capacity in the midst of falling global production and rising demand!

Note the two caveats: Beyond that it's a bit unclear & 'though the exact number is uncertain'

Rad: Interesting headline- then in the article, KSA claims a minimum capacity by the end of 2009 of 12 mbpd, while claiming a current capacity of 11.6. I guess this headline is better than "KSA says production capacity will not decline before the end of 2009 as new investments are planned".

I think it is a double bluff. They have admitted to an unattended 8% decline on existing fields
which supposedly has been held to 2% decline via advanced recovery/increased rigs.

The double bluff is making people think that they wouldn't dare lie in reporting such outrageously high future production rates.

in my opinion.

Marco.

For what it's worth

As I posted yesterday, I have been out of town for a week now and must drive across town to borrow my brother in law's computer to post. So if this note on Saudi Arabia was posted Sunday when it was fresh then I do apologize for the re-post. But in Sunday's Parade Magazine, there was a list of "The World's 10 Worst Dictators." Here is #5:

King Abdullah Saudi Arabia. Age 83. In power since 1995. Last year's rank; 7.
Because King Abdullah and the Saudi royal family control the world's largest reserves of oil, the U.S. government has not acted to oppose the repressive and intolerant actions of their regime. In Saudi Arabia, it is still possible to be executed for witchcraft and flogged for being alone with an unrelated person of the opposite sex. It is illegal for a Saudi citizen to practice a religion other than Islam. According to a 2006 report by the Center for Religious Freedom, Saudi school textbooks to be birulently anti-Christian and anti-Semitic. Last year, the U.S. State Department judged Saudi Araia one of the top eight offenders of religious freedom.

As I said, I apologize if this has already been posted. But I would just wish to point out there are multiple reasons that Saudi Arabia would wish the world to believe that they are sitting on the world's largest reserves of oil when in fact that is a complete myth. Well, it's a myth unless about 70 billion barrels are the world's largest reserves.

Got to go now. Hope to check in again in a day or two.

Ron Patterson

KSA's previously announced plans were to increase production capacity to 12 mbpd in 2009 and 15 mbpd in 2012. What I gather from this latest statement is that they are on target to meet the first goal, but that they are losing confidence in their ability to reach the 2nd goal. Instead of increasing production capacity by 3 mbpd during 2009-2012, they are revising that expectation downward to 0-2 mbpd in that timeframe.

Their stated post 2012 plans are not to increase production. They have said that they will plateau from 2012 onward. That's the part of their prediction that it most questionable. It's quite reasonable (not to mention alarming) that they will peak in the 2009-2012 timeframe, but do they really expect to avoid production declines for decades afterward?

Now that they are on record as bringing in their peak timeframe from 2012 to 2009, we may expect some explicit statement on post peak decline rates. So far they have been avoiding public statements about it.