177 comments on Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
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177 comments on Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
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Look: CERA made in 2005 a forecast for SA total liquids to be 13.05 Milion Barels per day...
Now...that is not what they are producing now, is it?
OPEC Liquids Productive Capacity (Annual Average) (continued)
(million barrels per day)
2007
Crude and Total
Crude Condensate Condensate NGLs Liquid Capacity
Algeria 1.62 0.53 2.15 0.40 2.55
Indonesia 0.88 0.13 1.01 0.14 1.15
Iran 4.39 0.25 4.64 0.20 4.84
Iraq 2.89 0.03 2.92 0.04 2.96
Kuwait* 2.75 0.05 2.80 0.17 2.97
Libya 2.04 0.09 2.13 0.09 2.22
Nigeria 2.60 0.45 3.05 0.22 3.27
Qatar 0.92 0.30 1.22 0.25 1.47
Saudi Arabia* 11.15 0.70 11.85 1.20 13.05
UAE** 2.81 0.35 3.16 0.33 3.49
Venezuela*** 2.78 0.09 2.87 0.23 3.10
Total OPEC 34.83 2.96 37.79 3.27 41.05
OPEC 10 31.94 2.93 34.87 3.23 38.10
Hahahahaaahaahahahhaaarrggh!!
just 2 years ago they forecasted total world liquids to be in 2007: 93.76 million barels per day.
Houston, we seem to be a bit off schedule here!!
Liquids Capacity Outlooks
(million barrels per day)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010
Non-OPEC
US 7.62 7.55 7.44 7.37 7.31 7.15 7.62 7.55 7.44 7.37 7.31 6.95
Non-US 29.23 30.01 31.04 31.94 32.39 33.23 29.23 30.01 31.03 31.83 31.65 31.82
Subtotal 36.85 37.56 38.48 39.31 39.70 40.38 36.85 37.56 38.47 39.20 38.96 38.77
Eurasia 11.22 11.81 12.40 13.06 13.70 15.21 11.22 11.81 12.40 13.06 13.39 14.76
Eastern Europe 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24
Subtotal 11.41 12.01 12.61 13.28 13.93 15.45 11.41 12.01 12.61 13.28 13.62 15.00
Total Non-OPEC 48.26 49.57 51.09 52.59 53.63 55.83 48.26 49.57 51.08 52.48 52.58 53.77
OPEC
Gulf Countries 24.23 25.13 25.74 26.62 27.54 28.84 24.23 25.13 25.56 26.26 26.66 27.63
Gulf NGLs 1.80 1.93 2.00 2.26 2.40 2.67 1.80 1.93 2.00 2.26 2.40 2.67
Other OPEC 10.78 11.22 11.77 12.29 12.92 14.17 10.78 11.32 11.71 12.00 12.22 12.55
Total OPEC 36.81 38.28 39.51 41.17 42.86 45.68 36.81 38.38 39.27 40.52 41.28 42.85
Total World 85.07 87.85 90.60 93.76 96.49 101.51
Do note that CERA seem to forecast 'productive capacity' not production.
That said, there is virtually zero chance of 100 mbpd productive capacity or production in 2010 whatever calendar one uses; the forecast is clearly, and shown by the last 2 years data to be, a crock of rotting dingos' kidneys if predictive capability is an important criterion.
Interpolating... 2007 production will do well to average 86 mbpd whereas CERA forecast 93.76. Let's be generous and knock off the unused capacity (takes 2004 down to 83 which was about production, and 2007 to 92). So, 2004 to 2007 grew 3 mbpd, CERA forecast 8.7 mbpd; for 2007 to 2010 they forecast 6.75 increase, prorating by 3 / 8.7 = 2.33, which implies about 88.3 mbpd production in 2010.
Now that sounds reasonable. See, you just have to be on the CERA wavelength, understand how to read their forecasts and the truth is clear ;)
Many thanks Kyle for the link, I will save and print it using the most permanent ink printer technology I can find and store it well, I'm sure it will make an amusing bedtime story for someone's kids someday.
Capacity is relevant if there is an abundance of oil down there.
Look to Norway who peaked back in 2001 – now down some 25% from peak. As far as I know they have not decommissioned any platforms yet (or maybe a couple small ones) – BUT my overall assessment is that Norway still maintain the same pumping capacity as when they peaked – but sadly THERE ARE SIMPLY NOT ANY INCREASING BLACK SUBSTANCES DOWN IN THEM WELLS –anymore.
And as some smart people say –
…don’t listen to what they SAY – LOOK at what they do !
More on capacity(CERA) vs reality -
As a comparing example there is an overall speed limit in Norway set to 80 km/h (REALITY) – so why the heck do they sell cars in this country showing 260 km/h on the speedometer?
And the car will eventually keep its promise on this 260km/h (this number is what CERA would focus) – but the local police and the national roads will not allow for such speeds (REALITY AGAIN) ….
double post (clicked twice)
At 8.5 mbpd crude + condensate, the Saudis are probably producing about 9.9 mbpd Total Liquids (based on 2005 ratio).
Of course, CERA is talking about "productive capacity," so any reduction in production is just a process of increasing their reserve productive capacity. One little problem is that the Saudis have now admitted that their 2005 crude + condensate production rate of 9.55 mbpd was pretty much their maximum producing rate.
Well, they seem to be as off with liquids prediction as they have been with predicting Natural Gas production in the USA. Who would pay any dime to look at this report? It is just bogus.
Roger From The Netherlands