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108 comments on Peak Oil Update - February 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

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Prof. Goose on February 26, 2007 - 12:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thomas, it seems to me that this is one of the points of Khebab's charts that gets lost sometimes: just how much uncertainty/variation there is out there with regard to the credible predictions of the future petroleum/liquids supply. It indicates a lack of scientific knowledge and predictive power, something you really would think we would have a lot more of regarding our energy future...that's what always strikes me anyway.

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TheTransition on February 26, 2007 - 8:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, that has always struck me too. However there is a fundamental disconnect between "professionals" ie UGS and CERA and "amateurs" essentially Peak Oilers.

I'm normally much more likely to take professionals advice over an amateur, but the maths of resource depletion are relatively simple and the fact is that world oil production in 2006 has not been greater than 2005 despite a massive increase in price.

In any case dealing with global warming will be much easier if we really can't increase the rate of oil and gas without a massive price increase.

I think world governments should plan on making kebahb's loglets prediction come true with price signals even if resources are plentiful.

Finally, thanks Khebab! I love these updates with all the preductions.

I have one feature request. Could you include past predictions from 2004 and 2005 somehow? Especially for CERA and EIA.

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dissident on February 26, 2007 - 8:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Unfortunately as gas and oil production decline we will have coal burning on a massive scale. So we are not going to get out of the CO2 crisis so easily. A good thing that will come out of the liquid fuel constriction is that current fossil fuel guzzling cars and SUVs will disappear (ethanol will not save them). People will be forced to use electric vehicles that are powered from the grid. Aside from that they will have to use public transit.

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TheTransition on February 26, 2007 - 10:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Actually it is not necessary to increase coal burning on a massive scale to solve transportation if people move to electic. The electric route is 5 - 10 times more efficient than ICE's. Replacing the US's fleet of auto's with electric, increases electricity demand by about 20%.

That said, it is quite possible to replace current coal fired power stations with Nuclear Plants as well. Other people have other opinions about Nuclear, but it works now and is likely to be significantly cheaper in the future.

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memmel on February 27, 2007 - 1:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

My biggest problem with nuclear energy is not nuclear but powe r companies that engineer nuclear power plants.

I've seen a number of reasonable designs for power plants with the pebble bed based reactors seeming the most promising.

Next I think its possible to handle radioactive waste in a responsible manner. I'd think "burning" it makes sense
http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0401010

Basically you use the neutron flux to further degrade the isotopes to ones with short half lives. This seems possible and I don't like the fact that what seems to be a reasonable disposal route has not been aggressively perused.

Maybe forming a international consortium to create standard safe reactor designs and disposal methods is the right answer.

On the same hand and aggressive well funded program on fusion is a must. We should be spending a significant amount of the worlds GNP or is it GWP ? On fusion and cleaner fission and radioactive waste processing.

I'm not saying that the nuclear industry has not done better lately but they need to go into overdrive and show people that clean safe nuclear power is possible and the operation and design of the reactors is open and well understood.

I think that nuclear fission and later fusion reactors for base load and industrial use are a must. I wish we could get by without them but we need them.

On the same hand conservation and solar/wind renewable that don't have a massive negative impact on the land should be perused to lessen the need for nuclear power of any kind.
Other solutions like run-of-river hydro also look like that have a reasonable minimal impact while traditional dams have problems.

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SGeier on February 27, 2007 - 5:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Other people have other opinions about Nuclear, but it works now and is likely to be significantly cheaper in the future.

I wonder whether these words were spoken about oil about 120 years ago. If so, they would've been true, of course.

But why should we use the event of the end of a non-renewable source at the basis of the global economy to restructure that economy to be based on another non-renewable resource? Only to be faced with the exact same problem again one or two centuries later? Aren't we smarter than that? Aren't we supposed to learn from our mistakes?


--
Sven Geier, Ph. D.
Yes, I speak for the White House, the CIA, the Pentagon, the Bilderberg Group and the Illuminati; Nasa, MI-5, and the Trilateral Commission. Really. Trust me.

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TheTransition on February 27, 2007 - 8:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The Nuclear fuel supply is huge and will almost certainly last for many centuries.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/7/195721/3132#more

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ANewLand on February 28, 2007 - 2:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From the link:

It has an average crustal abundance of about 2.7 Parts Per Million (PPM), which about the same as tin and zinc. There is an estimated 40 trillion tonnes of Uranium in the Earth's crust. To date we have mined less than one ten-millionth of this

there are doubts this diffuse fuel can be constrained and delivered at a cost in energy less than the final product contained. Though this mental externality may be considered mundane (by some), it is a necessary consideration when considering such a primary fuel.

How can we run a complex society on a fuel that does not leak itself out for mom and the kid's shopping Excursion (tm)?

Pete

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SGeier on February 28, 2007 - 2:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The Nuclear fuel supply is huge and will almost certainly last for many centuries.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/7/195721/3132#more

That is a nice and informative link there - it doesn't seem to support your claim, though.

According to the material at the other side of that link, using his own most optimistic numbers, the author states "Thus, the provable uranium resources amount to approximately 85 years supply at the current level of consumption with current technology, with another 500 years of additional reserves."

Nuclear currently supplies about 16% of the world electricity production, 0% of the worlds non-electric heating and 0% of the world transportation fuels, so if I were to increase the world consumption level of Uranium by, say, a factor of 10 or so to cover for the current use of oil, I get the most optimistic estimate by a proponent of nuclear power reduced to about 50 years of "estimated" reserves (and less than a decade of actually proven supply).

And that's the optimistic reading where I'm simply granting the numbers given by the author, i.e. without even examining the assumptions those were based on.

I can only see one way to read that article and conclude that the worlds nuclear fuel supply will "almost certainly last for many centuries": if I were to assume that current consumption levels will not increase, i.e. that nuclear power will NOT replace oil.


--
Sven Geier, Ph. D.
Yes, I speak for the White House, the CIA, the Pentagon, the Bilderberg Group and the Illuminati; Nasa, MI-5, and the Trilateral Commission. Really. Trust me.

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Smokey on February 27, 2007 - 9:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There is also a lot of "noise" and variability in historical oil production.

I'd be interested in thoughts on why oil production declined for a year or so around 1998, then again why it declined in the year 2000 or so for a couple of years (recession? 9/11? Iraq war?).

I'm convinced that we have serious problems with oil, after looking at the data, inaccurate government forecasts, continuing dependency on exports, etc. But it's been mentioned already by others -- shouldn't we expect similar declines (based on recession, etc.) that may appear to be due to peak oil but actually not? That is, might not it go up and down for a while based on geopolitical conditions? I understand the long-term trend of course will be down at some point, but these graphs (especially historical) point to the confusion that we may experience as things unfold over the years.

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PeakPlus on February 28, 2007 - 7:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Smokey.

Yes, there is a lot of noise.

I got actively interested in "Peak oil" almost exactly after the Iraq War II. What I noticed was that prices were rising/stable AND production was increasing, EVEN THOUGH the political situation was "stable". This led me (being so market lead that I am) to look for what was going on. "Peaking" oil led me to the conclusion that we will never see $20 oil again.

So far (ok, forget the light corrections since the summer 2006 highs) the markets have proved my analysis correct.

So...
If you want to know if Peak is behind us or not, look at:
Production numbers, price dynamic AND the HL graphs being presented here. As a market follower, it has all come together incredibly well, n'est-ce pas?

And, of course, the number of rigs out there trying to scrape out the dregs...

And, that the world's giant fields are starting to blow steam.

And the fact that even if I went back to Pappy's Oil Patch to try my luck, even $60 oil is not enough to cover my costs. Well, ok, the patch is in Ohio..

Should I go on?

Cheers, Dom

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