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206 comments on DrumBeat: February 23, 2007

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PeakPlus on February 23, 2007 - 5:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Although I would say that you're right that the bell-shaped curve of the Hubbert curve does not fit every region, an HL-plot certainly seems to work.

The reason why the US-48 is used as an example is because it was developed gradually - fits the hubbert curve almost exactly. The reason why the UK is used is because it is a two-humped camel, not fitting the curve at all. Just like Russia and Saudi Arabia, for instance. EVEN THEN the HL method worked. It won't be long til Saudi Arabia replaces the UK as HL's second prime example...

I'm still not sure when to listen to a dog leg or not, or where the line should be drawn..

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alan on February 23, 2007 - 9:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Speaking of dog legs, I see one in this post by Euan Mearns yesterday

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2283#comment-162318

Another case of HL producing a false alarm with the real peak following ~10 years later. If Saudi Arabia follows the same pattern it should begin its involutary decline around 2015.

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TrueKaiser on February 24, 2007 - 12:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

now does that nice little post take into account the cooking of the books in the 80's where S.A.'s reserves doubled literally overnight with no physical proof of it?
this is something westexas's estimates using HL take this little fact into account and has been proven right so far.

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Rethin on February 24, 2007 - 8:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Freddy weren't you banned?

Do you think no one notices your sockpupet?

At least learn to capitolize, that would make your posts a little different.

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westexas on February 24, 2007 - 11:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The change in inflection on the data set right before 1999 was the same pattern that we saw right before the Texas, Lower 48 and Saudi declines.

In any case, rather than arguing hypotheticals, why not argue actually predictions?

As Deffeyes predicted, world crude oil production is declining (EIA).

As I predicted, Saudi crude oil production is declining.

As Khebab predicted, Mexican crude oil production is declining.

What is really bizarre about this whole "debate" is the ongoing attacks on the HL method even as region after region start declining, as predicted.

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