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Here is the best information I have seen to date on what you talk about. This was done by Khebab, cover what fits and what doesn't fit very well in respect to HL. Worth the time to look at has 30+ charts from around world.
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/
Thank you.
The bottom line is HL can be a good indicator, but is not always the gospel. Oil producing regions can be throttled back, improperly developed, mismanaged, or even destroyed (natural disasters, hurricanes). Saudi Arabia would have the biggest financial incentive of anybody to do this, and as a Kingdom they are much more capable of pulling it off then in a capitalist society where monopolies are illegal.
Sometimes I wonder if there's room for any shades of grey at TOD.
For the record, I will state that it is possible Saudi Arabia really is over the hump and is now in massive decline. Or they could be throttling back to protect the price of oil. No one outside of a few people knows for sure. We watch and wait.