• US Nat Gas wells depleting at 32% and rising.
• Number of rigs needed for stable production rises each year.
• Utilization of rigs approaching capacity.

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What comes next? Rig count must increase forever to keep the gas flowing. This will drive the cost of drilling, and cost of natural gas. The end result will be, that wind and solar will become cost competitive on some magical day in the future, and utilities will trip over eachother to install systems on rooftops, just like DirectTV and Cable.

Mark B asked,
"Do you expect electricity produced from CIS is capable of climbing a cliff?"
(and attached a very interesting chart, thanks...:-)

I don't know. But frankly, the LNG option is falling apart fast. North American nat gas production could perhaps be pushed up slightly, but as we have seen other posters mention, the return per well is declining, so it would be at great expense, and the math shows that we would be unlikely to increase production enough, fast enough. It can be expected that the tar sand effort in Canada, and the increased consumption of both fertilizer and heat for distilling in the ethanol industry will also drive natural gas consumption higher.

We are now running low on options. A massive return to coal is of course a horrendous choice for obvious reasons. So the two remaining choices that can make a difference big enough and fast enough are:
(a) Widespread conservation
(b) Alternatives (wind, solar thermal and PV Solar as the most promising choices)

The conservation route will work, but it will require will. Insulation, movable insulation (insulating shutters) more efficient heating and air conditioning (ground source heat pumps as an example), improvement in appliances and lighting, daylighting, etc. (Does anyone ever go to the energystar site?
http://www.energystar.gov/
Also, re-evaluation of natural gas use in every business and industrial practice it is used in. Reduction of Diesel fuel consumption
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/12/walmart_seeks_t.html
http://ezinearticles.com/?Increased-Fuel-Efficiency-For-Volvo-Trucks&id=...

The reason this is important is that unknown to most consumers, Diesel fuel now requires an increased amount of natural gas to produce, as it is used as desulfuring agent to produce Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel fuel.

But, at the end of the day, there is no avoiding the fact that electric consumption in the U.S. is only going to grow, even with conservation measures. Thus, we have to turn seriously to the alternatives, Wind and Solar.

We have long discussed the wind option, and it has grown as an energy provider, but it must be admitted that it is limited by wind availability and the variability problem.

Solar PV suffers the variability problem, but if cells and panels can be made that are cheaper and more efficient, they can be used almost anywhere. The issue is price per kilowatt. The trend seems to be moving very fast in favor of PV electric, and a fair number of firms are now preparing for mass production. We are at the turning point.

There has been some concern about the supply of Indium. I once did a long post on TOD exposing research I had done into that metal, in which I found that the supply was not nearly as limited as it is sometimes made out, but of course, it was read by virtually no one, being somewhat dry and "boring" to most. For most of it's history, Indium has been considered virtually useless and had no real market, thus no effort has been made many years to even extract it. Likewise, no real effort has been made at improving methods of extraction. I would recomment that anyone interested go to the largest supplier of the metal, and check it out, it is actually very interesting:
http://www.indium.com/

The industry is claiming no real problem on Indium supply for many years, and the thin film solar industry is investing in production capacitiy as though they have no fear of not having raw material. However, the points about supply are well taken, and we should not go into the game wasting the raw material needed to sustain the industry. Indium can be recycled (although for many years, it was so cheap and lacked a market that no one really tried), and all efforts should be made to use the material wisely.

So, can CIS thin film solar climb a cliff? All indications are that it is at the very front of the development curve, and can grow very, very fast. But can it outrun our coming natural gas crisis?

By itself, probably not. But it can be a major part of a overall solution involving electric power consumption conservation efforts, Diesel conservation, and heating/cooling efficiency improvements. In the longer term, it holds revolutionary promise, as the methods of production and the use of raw materials improve. But right now, we must concern ourselves with the near term (3 to 5 years).

We are now at the point that "analysis paralysis" cannot be allowed to slow our efforts. The storm is on the horizon, so close we can start to feel the winds from the storm front. We are running out of time.

Thank you.
Roger Conner Jr.

Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom