<Matt Simmons on Bloomberg: Peak Oil is Now and Oil Is WAY Too CheapThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: February 26, 2007>

63 comments on A quick review of some current numbers on domestic crude oil stocks and the like

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memmel on February 25, 2007 - 11:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Your making the assumption that Americans have assets besides their house and a bit in the 401k in general I don't think so.

I think you will find that amount of money invested directly by Americans in stock as part of a personal saving is minuscule at best out side of say the top 5% of Americans.

Now of course they have some money that is technically theirs in 401k's and pension plans that is being invested I'll grant you that and its not a small a mount of money but its not liquid wealth either.

The equity in their homes if any is all Americans have in general.

Many Americans will be facing real poverty if our economy slows.

Actually I suspect that Bush knows this and also I'm positive he knows the real situation in KSA. In a sense America has a dwindling chance to do something while it is still the worlds only super power. The war in Iraq and probably soon Iran is what he has chosen as America's last big move. He doesnt give a damn about Joe six pack since the American middle class is toast. At best we can be assured of enough desperate men willing to be cannon fodder during the oil wars.

I don't agree with his moves or decisions but if you make the above assumptions then they make sense from a neo-con perspective. The scary part as the collision of Peak Oil (Mexico) , Depression and War makes conditions ripe for the imposition of a wartime government and the suspension of democracy in America.

This would be the real tragedy.

Just the fact that a fairly realistic analysis of the situation with some simple assumptions makes even the probability of the suspension of democracy in America is scary to me.

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ThatsItImout on February 26, 2007 - 12:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"The equity in their homes if any is all Americans have in general.

Many Americans will be facing real poverty if our economy slows."

Duh!, ya' think so? Somebody please tell me how that is any different than most of post WWII history....well, except the 1970's, when you had hoards of baby boomers coming out of college who had no savings, college debt, and not even equity in a home....oh, did I mention they also faced double digit inflation, double digit interest rates and double digit unemployment and oil prices at what would now be nearly $100 per barrel?

The problem with all of these charts is that they are far too short, it is almost impossible to judge anything using a two or three year window....(ahh, it makes me think of the glory days of the tech bubble..."See, this stock only go's up!!" Question: "How far back does that chart extend?" Answer: "I didn't bother to look....let's see, uh, about a week...but see, IT ONLY GOES UP!" :-)

RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

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Ian Down Under on February 26, 2007 - 2:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Somebody please tell me how that is any different than most of post WWII history....well, except the 1970's, when you had hoards of baby boomers coming out of college who had no savings, college debt, and not even equity in a home....

I'll tell you - since I was there in the 70's, starting a family, buying a home and no debt other than a car to repay.

Compare to today as noted Here, today:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21288836-2,00.html

PROPERTY experts have offered a bleak picture for Australia's youth, with only one in 14 believing members of Generation Y will ever be able to buy their own home.

I think this is much like the US. Today is diametrically opposite to the 70's - a time you can only grasp a glimpse of from videos and books. The primary difference was the US, Aus, Canada and the UK were producing countries - now (except for minerals from Aus and Canada) we are consumers, little more.

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ThatsItImout on February 26, 2007 - 4:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ian Down Under said,
"I think this is much like the US. Today is diametrically opposite to the 70's - a time you can only grasp a glimpse of from videos and books."

I am assuming you mean that remark editorially, and not in my personal case, as I got my first job selling gasoline in 1974, and graduated high school in 1977, so I well remember the 1970's, a period when I would not have dreamed of starting a family because I could not have possibly afforded a house to start to one in...and in which I saved $20 per week from a dollar an hour job to buy my first car cash because (a) no bank would loan money to anyone just out of highschool, and (b) even if they would, I could not afford to pay the then common 18% interest rates, which would have made a $2000 dollar used car (not that uncommon then) cost about $8000.

I will not argue with the source you linked, but I am willing to bet that the mood would have been about equal to that of 1979, after the second major fuel crisis in less than a decade, war in the Persian Gulf, and oil prices per barrel at what would now be near $100 per barrel. It was great fun in those days putting in for jobs, at which point the receptionist would tell you, "go ahead and put it in, but I can tell you it's going in the garbage at quitting time, we have 500 people putting in for 3 positions here...."

Maybe Australia was doing better than the U.S. South in that period, but I can tell you from my experience it was helll that I would not want to live through again.....but guess what? We did live through it, all the kids that thought they would never own a home finally did (many delayed, mind you) and it turned out to be the best economic period in history for 20 years thereafter.

What most worries me about the "Y" generation or whatever is that they grew up in a period in which they NEVER saw a down market.....and by the squalling and moaning I am hearing in what so far has been a brief and shallow slowdown, it's debatable whether or not they can take it.....

RC
Remember, We are only one cubic mile from freedom.

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MicroHydro on February 26, 2007 - 4:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I graduated with a BS in 1979 in California in deep debt, during that time, people were being shot in gas lines in LA. I had to work for a couple years before going back to school. During the 2 years working, my rent went from $150 per month to $360 per month while I got a 5% raise. Returning to school, I had to take out a 12% student loan. While I expect the economy to worsen, it has a long way to go to get as bad as the 1970s were for many folks.

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GreyZone on February 26, 2007 - 12:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I grew up and graduated in the same time period, Roger, and I am going to have to question your anecdotal numbers. The US minimum wage in 1974 was $2.00. In 1976 it advanced to $2.10. In 1977 it advanced to $2.30 and in 1978 it advanced to $2.65. If you worked for $1 per hour you should have been getting tips. If you did not get tips, then that was your personal choice to work under those conditions. I graduated in 1976, Roger, and never, ever, even in the midst of the rust belt as steel plants and coal mines closed around me, did I find myself unable to locate minimum wage work.

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KansasCrude on February 26, 2007 - 3:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Grey Zone

Graduated H.S. in 74, worked my first job as a sophomore at $1.20/hr. flipping burgers in 72. Dishwasher for a time in 73 at $1.45/hr.. Worked at an amusement park as a ride operator in 75 making $1.65/hr. In between some better higher paying factory jobs. Point is Minimum Wage laws were governed by intra and interstate regulations. If your employer did not operate in more than one state then the minimum wage laws in the state were in force not the Feds. Lots of loopholes for underage workers and in general state mins. well below the Feds.

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thomas deplume on February 26, 2007 - 12:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

While the 80s and 90s were very good for investments they were hell on paychecks. Over the course of 24 years in my public transit job the purchasing power of my paycheck dropped in real terms about 20%. Compared to many working families who did not have the benefit of a union I did pretty good by losing only 20%. The 25% of Americans with a BA or BS live in a very different world than the 75% who lack degrees. We now live in an age where none of the benefits of economic expansion and increased worker productivity is going to those workers who are generating that wealth. We have the dichotomy of increasing wealth and increasing poverty at the same time as America continues to become Mexico.

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Seadragon on February 26, 2007 - 10:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This guy is sick and tired of the "redefinition of savings." Perhaps there are some vested interests in this? You think?
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2007/02/stop-trying-to-rede...

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