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410 comments on Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006

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westexas on March 2, 2007 - 11:25am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Well, some of us, including Darwinian, have been out there on the limb for quite a while. Of course, I was just building on work done by Deffeyes & Simmons, primarily using Khebab’s HL graphs.

One point about Simmons’ book. When he wrote it, and when it was published, Saudi Arabia was still showing near record high production levels.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832
Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters
Posted by Prof. Goose on January 27, 2006 -
Guest post by Westexas

I believe that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of a long term decline in production.   Texas, the former swing producer, with a similar P/Q intercept, showed a 29% drop in production over a 10 year period after its 1972 peak.

http://www.energybulletin.net/16459.html

Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world
first published May 25, 2006.
Jeffrey J. Brown & "Khebab", GraphOilogy

Based on the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method and based on our historical models, we believe that Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production.

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BrianT on March 2, 2007 - 11:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WT: What I find really interesting is that as Russia has surpassed KSA it is being portrayed in the MSM as the new "oil giant". I think you were saying that the HL method has Russia as 95% depleted. Not even a whiff of this possibility is hitting the MSM.

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westexas on March 2, 2007 - 11:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Based on the HL plot, Russia is now on the order of 90% depleted (at least from mature basins).

Also based on the HL model, Russia has been making up for what was not produced, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. IMO, they should start showing a sharp decline in production, probably this year.

Because of higher domestic consumption, Russia reported about a 2.4% decline in net oil exports, from 2005 to 2006, even though they reported higher crude oil production.

In any case, as I predicted in the January, 2006 post, Saudi Arabia and Russia joined Norway in reporting lower crude oil exports.

My usual disclaimer: I started studying the Net Export issue because of some of Simmons' early work, and my conclusions were based on Khebab's HL plots.

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thomas deplume on March 2, 2007 - 3:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In the Land of the Munchkins little Dorothy was a giant.

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DelusionaL on March 2, 2007 - 12:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Question of the day - How many of you oil guys can get out on that limb before it breaks and hits the MSM firmly between the eyes?

Here is some positive breaking NEWS -
Solar giant Solar World annonced plans to build the US's largest solar cell factory. In Hillsboro,OR 20 miles west of Portland, OR

http://portland.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2007/02/26/daily39.html

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410 comments on Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006

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