380 comments on A Nosedive Toward the Desert
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380 comments on A Nosedive Toward the Desert
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For me it all comes down to the 1988 reserve increase:
If we correct for the increase, we get 180Gb left, the HL would then look like that:
A global HL without a priori knowledge is saying 90 Gb left:
Stuart's hypothesis is clearly very pessimistic (dotted red line) but would be consistent with a rapid crash of Ghawar probably followed by a small rebound or a least a flattening in production coming from smaller fields.
more comments later.
If i look at the maps http://maps.google.com/ i could see that the concentration of oil in middle east must be a lot higher than for example in us or the north sea. Is there any gelogical reason to believe that middle east has a lot more oil per area than any other area of the world. Then i check these http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2004/horn/images/13.htm and http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2004/horn/images/14.htm i could see that middle east are dominated by carbonate. Is it possible that this could create a skewness towards large easy to tap reservoirs that gives the perception that they have lot more oil than they have.
It's possible. Saudi Arabia has (had?) the most productive wells in the world because of the exceptional quality of their reservoirs. That's explains also why they have drilled so little compared to the US for instance.
I first saw that chart about the 1988 reserve increase in a 2000 issue of Outstanding Investments. They had all the other OPEC countries graphed too, and it was the beginning of my interest in peak oil. I still remember the sudden knot in my stomach when I saw the charts and "grokked" their meaning. Suddenly, the year 2000 doomers did not seem quite as whacky as they did before.