We live in a truly magical time. With the flick of a finger, the power of 10 horses flows from a small wire in the wall of our homes to clean our carpets.

That must be one magical amount of suck, when you have a 7440 watt carpet cleaner.

And a magical carpet that can withstand the force of a 10 Hp cleaner.

Vacuuming aside, the level of disconnect and cluelessness in a US professor of physics is astounding.

To see someone on that level state that peak oil might happen in 30 years, while world energy consumption is set to triple in 18 years, what can you say to that?

If the best-educated, let's not use the term intelligent here, among us see this as reality, what can you expect his students and their families and friends and neighbors to understand?

It's not CERA that's the problem, it's an entire blindfolded nation.

His students, their families, friends and neighbors ubderstand that peak oil cultists are morbidly depressed tin foil hat wearers.

When they feel it in their wallets, they will get religion. Hallelujah brothers!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070304/japan_markets.html?.v=2
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070305/wall_street_week_ahead.html?.v=2

Physics professors don't get out much, I doubt he has ever read anything on the "oil supplies" subject. For engineers and scientists, renewable energy may be considered more of a technical issue than socio-economic. If a tech miracle happens, then it may change the global energy picture overnight. Ripping up the whole world and changing it isn't going to happen, at least not volentarily. To think otherwise is silly. Noone is blindfolded or clueless, most just can't change it so why worry? All CERA may want to prevent a panic (1929?) since they obviously know the truth.

Personally I would prefer the world change slowly so we can adjust. When/if the barbarians are at the gates, there will be plenty of change for all of us.

It may be better to be a live jackal than a dead lion, but it is better still to be a live lion. And usually easier. - Heinlein
To Ride, Shoot Straight and Speak the Truth - Col Cooper

The barbarians are already at the gates. They're building them.

Good thing no-one is clueless.

Otherwise, who knows what might happen?

"Noone is blindfolded or clueless, most just can't change it so why worry?

Bullshit. Flyboy is exactly right. Don't be fooled by the very small audience here at TOD that is aware and awake. The vast majority of the Herd of Saps are without a clue and are blindfolded foolZ.

Very few people know anything at all about Peak Oil and Gas. Virtually no one understands energy - it is something we've taken for granted all of our lives the past couple of generations.

Our assinine leaders still think they are in control and that "the market" will save us. "The Market" is Mother Nature and she is going to eat us alive. One by one.

Even the very small fraction of our First World that is awake worries about childishly naive things like "food or ethanol for our car-cars and trucks"... just wait a few years until half the northern hemisphere cannot heat their homes and then we will see if they are still worried about their fucking cars.

Idiots.

Just came back from spreading some compost around - for around 10 years in this part of Germany, you can either compost your 'bio' (organic/food/otherwise compostable) waste, or have it picked up once every 2 weeks for a fee by the city - quite honestly, I'm not sure how expensive it is. Though it is very likely that most if not all bio waste is burnt as fuel for electricity, the idea of having people compost their own waste for use in their own gardens seems to be a fairly simple one. (Town compost, for example from all the trimmed trees and flower beds, is spread over local farm fields at times, however - nothing like keeping things local to keep them local - something routine here in many things.)

Now consider this - of all the housing built in American suburbs over the last 20 years, how many have home owner associations which explicitly forbid composting? Or drying the wash outside, which we also did today, though that is still technically not allowed around here, as today is a day of rest. A fantastically warm, sunny, perfect for clothes drying day - sometimes, you just risk the wrath of heaven, and enjoy the fresh scent of clean bed sheets.

It isn't a blindfold around American eyes, really, it is something much, much harder to encompass. A willful inability to even grasp reality seems to be a part of it. Without any excuse of tradition, as the charming (or sinister, depending on whether you focus on cathedrals or witch burning) aspect of middle age religosity explains the legally mandated social custom of not hanging laundry out on official church reserved days (and yes, I actually know someone who did received official notification about 7 years ago that she shouldn't do that on Sundays).

If America lived differently, many of it problems would no longer exist, but it seems as if for many Americans, living differently would be un-American.

But the Swiss are already planning for the future - I listened to a good 5 minute report on the radio while driving to work - the Swiss are already planning on how many people are going to need to be moved, as the glaciers recede from mountain sides, causing massive changes in the local geography, for example.

And in America? It's all good, or some such, right?

If America lived differently, many of it problems would no longer exist, but it seems as if for many Americans, living differently would be un-American.

Don't forget, our wonderful leaders, including Darth, say that "The American way of life is not negotiable." And most Americans WANT to believe that. The do not want to believe that life could be radically different and/or more physically uncomfortable.

Most Americans spend their free time being entertained, rather than doing something creative. Under that scenario, it's hard to envision the bulk of the public accepting a different reality. That's why I'm somewhat pessimistic about the future. I think things MAY have to get pretty bad before they get better.

Expat--

Just about every masterplanned community in the United States prohibits clotheslines (solar dryers) as well as solar water heaters and PV panels. Other solar appurtenances to the house, like awnings, are also on the forbidden list. All in the name of protecting property values.

Has there ever been a society that is more disconnected from nature than ours?

Below is an excerpt from a column I wrote in December.

The rewards of a well-used solar dryer are by no means limited to the energy and dollar savings reported on the monthly utility bill. The best part of the package is the time spent outside. There you can take the pulse of the day from the sunlight, clouds, air temperature, wind and humidity that make up this continuous flux of energy that we call the weather. Relying on solar energy in this way makes a person more attuned to the ebb and flow of weather conditions. Yes, forsaking the fossil-fueled dryer for the great outdoors does take more time and effort, but it’s a small price to pay for eliminating the drudgery that comes with doing the laundry on autopilot.

Amazingly enough, community prohibition of clotheslines is not uncommon in the United States. Ironically, this inane belief that the sight of gym trunks and sweat socks hanging in a yard will drive property values lower is strongest in the Sun Belt, a region where solar drying—and water heating--should be the norm and not the exception. What can you say about a mindset that thinks nothing of wasting a precious fossil fuel on doing the laundry just to keep up appearances? Given how prevalent this silly and self-destructive behavior is in our land, is the imminent arrival of the oil peak and terminally declining natural gas stocks necessarily a bad thing?

Fortunately CCRs against PV systems are illegal in California.

We need a national override.

Well the may have something in a HOA bylaws that say I can't dry my clothes outside but seriously what are they gonna do put a notice on my front door?? It would cost them more than what it is worth to stop me from drying my clothes outside. HOA's can't do anything. Even if they tried I could drive around my neighboorhood and find a crapload of violations which they have not acted on causing all sorts of problems in regards to enforcement.

I could drive around my neighboorhood

Perhaps you could WALK around your neighborhood and see even more ?

All too often, walking is not even considered, too many are conditioned to drive regardless of circumstances.

Best Hopes for short lived shoe leather and long life tires,

Alan

Good catch. I do walk around my neighboorhood every evening with my family however I also drive home everyday unfortunately. I tend to notice the negative things when I drive though. When I walk it is much more rewarding and positive.

Badger any predictions for this week and next week withdrawals in NG? DD are more this week according to NOAA.
TIA,

As far as I can tell, in my neck of the woods, Americans use Sundays for more shopping (after Saturday, I mean). After church, and the obligatory midday repast (a large amount of grain-fed protein, usually) it's off to the stores to "shop til you drop." Riding my bike through traffic (huge pickup trucks and SUVs) and then actually driving in it this weekend was a real Matrix-style eye-opener for me, having just read Stuart's post on SA...

Given that 200 Amp panels appear to be a common size for households, the good professor may be on the low side for potential peak loads, given that Watts = Voltage x Amps :

From US Inspect: Items of Inspection

120-volt appliances and equipment:

* Refrigerator – depends on size and model – approx. 4 amps
* Microwave – depends on size and model – approx. 10 amps
* Hair dryer – 1500 watts – 12.5 amps
* Curling iron – 1200 watts – 10 amps
* Toaster – 1000 watts – 8.3 amps
* Lighting – approx. 1200 watts – 10 amps
* TV – 21 to 30 inches – approx. 150 watts – 1.25 amps
* Portable heater – 1500 watts – 12.5 amps
* Washing machine – approx. 1000 watts – 8.3 amps
* Furnace blower – approx. 400 watts – 3.3 amps
* Miscellaneous items – stereo, exhaust fans, blender, disposal, iron, additional TVs, etc.– 1500 to 4000 watts – 25 amps

Total of the 120-volt circuits = 130.15 amps

240 volt appliances and equipment:

* AC – 36,000 BTU – approx. 19 amps
* Range/oven – approx. 10,000 watts – approx. 41.66 amps
* Dryer – 4800 watts – 20 amps
* Water heater – 4500 watts – 18.75 amps

Total of the 240-volt circuits = 99.41 amps

You could convert the power draw for each type of appliance into the number of solar panels required. If the standard PV panel puts out 160 watts peak you might need 30 of them to run a 4.5 kw air conditioner.

Think of this way, driving down the street. Bling bling! a house with 30 roof panels. Hmmn, they must have AC.

Although I am on the gird, I have a large PV system. I also know a number of people in the area who are totally off the gird (I live in the boondocks.). The reality is that you live within the confines of your power. In other words, you select what you want to do and then modify your power usage as necessary.

For example, I can choose to run my 2hp well pump or the water heater but I can't run both at the same time. What I do is to be sure the pressue tank for household water is pumped up; then I'll turn on the water heater. Or, I can run our small AC but not the stove. I've had the system for years so I'm very attuned to what I can cannot run at the same time.

The people in my area who are off the grid rely upon propane for many of the appliances with big draws such as stoves and water heaters. As far as I know, they all have some kind of generator as a back-up for cloudy days to recharge their batteries or for loads beyond their system's capability.

It's a diffferent way to live but not that big a deal.

Todd

Good post. Do you and your neighbors have plans for when propane is not available? It sounds like you are real close to self-sufficiency. You will be better prepared for this than 99% of the population.

Cid,

Actually, the response will vary by individual. I'm in a different position than most others. First, I'm on the grid but have the PV system. Second, I'm all electric except for heating which is wood. Third, I have two choices for back-up generators: an 8kW gas and a 23kW diesel. If the grid goes down I'll convert the gas generator to wood gas. FWIW, I also have a 6 burner wood cook stove in addition to our electric range and a small (7 gallon) water heater that I'll use to bypass the 40 gallon tank - at least we'd have some hot water even on cloudy days. I also have a solar hot water preheater system and a heat exchanger in the wood heater.

The folks using propane really have only one option were it not available and that is wood gas or biogas/methane. The reality is that very few look this far ahead. One has started to plant olives for biodiesel but he isn't stocking methanol and NaOH so it's mostly talk. Essentailly no one is interested in wood gas except me. And, for a variety of reasons biogas/methane won't work for the majority of the people due to a lack of feed stock.

Todd

I agree with that general approach. I live an hour out of a city (Hobart) but the mainly hydro grid has just recently been linked to coal generation via a HVDC cable. I don't want nuthin' to do with it so for the last 6 weeks or so every meal has been microwaved or cooked on a woodstove. The electric range is just to warm quiche for soft city slickers who visit.

I thought I had the water pumping problem solved with a standalone solar battery + 12 volt pump system. However drought has dropped the water levels so I need a more powerful pump. I'm bidding for such a pump on eBay so who knows. The need to adapt never stops.