<DrumBeat: March 6, 2007 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: March 7, 2007>

36 comments on A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

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Prof. Goose on March 6, 2007 - 11:38am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Phil asked me to post this:

The Khursaniyah link above does not work because the Saudi Aramco website uses Session IDs. For details on Khursaniyah and other projects, choose 'Media Center' then 'News' and then 'Megaprojects':

http://www.saudiaramco.com

In the last few days, there has been good discussion about Saudi's performance in 2006. If I hadn't already written my article, I might have toned down the language I used. Robert is of course correct that Haradh III started-up early in the year - it was officially opened on the 22nd March. They acknowledge a ramp-up period but I would still have expected to see impact on total production earlier than July. However, it would only have taken one or two significant process or equipment faults to push significant production back a few months. Without quality information we just don't know what actually happened.

I'm a big fan of Robert's posts here, his reliance on solid data and that he forces us to consider alternative explanations for what we observe. Without such critical analysis, the strength of the discussion would be much lower. I also agree that organisations making official submissions about peak oil need to present the risk of an early peak but also the uncertainty that peak 'might' be several years away.

However, I don't think TOD falls in that category. We do not control the official position of the public peak oil figures and the well funded anti-peak oil folks will always be able to use media to support their view, regardless of what we say. The Oil Drum doesn't need to convince everybody to adopt exactly the same position. Instead, TOD does a great job of informing people with quality articles and through discussion amongst people with diverse points of view.

I come here to read the best technical, quantitative and qualitative analysis available anywhere. I come here to keep up-to-date on how Westexas, Khebab, Robert, Stuart and everybody else are reading the latest numbers. Having absorbed all the information and different points of view, I'm then in the best possible position to prepare what I present to audiences at home. So far that has included investment fund managers, the local branch of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, principal research officers for the Senate Inquiry into Australia's future oil supply and several community events. I couldn't do it without The Oil Drum!

I'll join the discussion when I wake up in Melbourne, which will be about 4pm EST...

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davebygolly on March 6, 2007 - 2:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"The Oil Drum doesn't need to convince everybody to adopt exactly the same position."

100 per cent agreement with that! That's what I come here for: to hear those in the know debate.

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chrisale on March 7, 2007 - 12:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I just wanted to say, given the response to my query in yesterdays Drumbeat... *this* post is all I was really looking for.

It's balance. It's a contrarian view. It's proof that The Oil Drum is *not* just a bunch of crackpots predicting the end of civilization, but rather a bunch of crackpots predicting the end of civilization... based on a real debate, sound science, rigorous analysis, and paranoid pragmatism. ;=)

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Cid Yama on March 7, 2007 - 2:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's balance. It's a contrarian view. It's proof that The Oil Drum is *not* just a bunch of crackpots predicting the end of civilization, but rather a bunch of crackpots predicting the end of civilization... based on a real debate, sound science, rigorous analysis, and paranoid pragmatism. ;=)

We're not crackpots. They just say we are, and spend lots of money to hire lots of people to publish articles and come to this website and attempt to debunk what is said here. I believe the article about the forming uranium cartel is a clue as to why they are buying time. They need time to consolidate their control of the next major source of energy. I'm sure they are similarly working to control coal if they don't already. Even though the world may be going to hell in a handbasket, this is still about power not energy.

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ET on March 6, 2007 - 4:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Robert is of course correct that Haradh III started-up early in the year - it was officially opened on the 22nd March. They acknowledge a ramp-up period but I would still have expected to see impact on total production earlier than July. However, it would only have taken one or two significant process or equipment faults to push significant production back a few months. Without quality information we just don't know what actually happened.

I've been thinking about this a lot, and I agree with Prof. G's take on it here. We should keep in mind that the production data is hardly precise. From what I read, it is based, possibly in large part on the reports from PetroLogistics with it's tanker spotters and other strategically placed watchers. Given the uncertainty of the data, it makes no sense to keep one's nose too close to the numbers reported by official agencies, or, for that matter, the precise timelines of official announcements from the PR agencies of various oil-producing governments (such as the Haradh III announcement). Stuart's approach (and WT's as well) of assembling the various sources of data, plotting general trends, and drawing extrapolations seems the best we can do and in my opinion, is likely to yield a more accurate forecast than trying to pin down precise data points when the data is simply not very precise.

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Robert Rapier on March 7, 2007 - 3:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We should keep in mind that the production data is hardly precise. From what I read, it is based, possibly in large part on the reports from PetroLogistics with it's tanker spotters and other strategically placed watchers.

That argument cuts both ways, though. Then we might say that the production bump actually happened in August. Stuart tried to take some of that uncertainty out by averaging several data sets. Given that the Saudis completed the plant in January, and commissioned the plant in March, we should have seen a production bump in April and May.

Commissioning means that they have tested all the units, everything is working, they have already had flow running through the plant, and now they are starting it up for good. Those production issues that people are suggesting would have been mostly worked out following completion and prior to commmissioning.

So, here is what we know:

1. Plant started up in March.
2. Production bump in June or July.

Without doing a lot of speculating about things we have no way of proving, we can't say that 2 was caused by 1.

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Robert Rapier on March 7, 2007 - 3:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I come here to read the best technical, quantitative and qualitative analysis available anywhere. I come here to keep up-to-date on how Westexas, Khebab, Robert, Stuart and everybody else are reading the latest numbers.

Thanks for the comments. I would add that this is also the same reason I come here, and the reason I started coming here in the first place. I like to see a diversity of opinions, because it helps me work through the issues in my own mind.

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Phil Hart on March 7, 2007 - 3:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

hey robert

sorry i left aberdeen before you arrived. could have been interesting to discuss all this over a (half) pint at The Globe or The Prince of Wales. say hello to Forbesfield Rd (just off great western road next to Forest Avenue) next time you're passing. hope you enjoy Scotland as much as I did. i was very sad to leave but with peak oil and climate change I decided it was time for me to stop flying back to Oz every year.

cheers
phil.

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36 comments on A Simple Oil Production Estimate for 2007

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