275 comments on Predicting the Past: The Hubbert Linearization
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We saw small deflections in the Texas and Lower 48 plots, right before the they peaked, much like the small deflections in the Saudi and world plots, right before they (IMO) peaked.
WT do you have the OIP numbers for Texas and can you give me
the % recovery factors based on the HL analysis ?
Thats the plot we need.
Mike, the problem with using recovery factors based on Texas is that we gutted many of our early-discovered giant fields with overproduction.
Secondary and tertiary production and Maximum Efficient Rate (of recovery) were all invented by my homies in the oil patch around here. As a consequence the is a recovery factor of the oil in place of about 1/3rd, while the mid-east and North Sea are getting about 50% of the original oil in place.
The Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas should have the exzact figures you are looking for.
Right I forgot about this. We really damaged our fields early on. In a sense its a blessing since fixing the damage is probably what keep us going. I don't think Texas by itself is all that useful as a model past a certain point because of this.