<Predicting the Past: The Hubbert LinearizationThe Oil DrumSo will it be the Emperor Coal?>

171 comments on DrumBeat: March 13, 2007

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

westexas on March 13, 2007 - 9:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Brian,

I think that Robert and I were both on the right path, but we were asking the wrong questions.

IMO, the right question is: What portion of the Texas HL data set prior to 1973 (when the decline started) would result in a Qt estimate close to 62 Gb? The answer is the strong linear data set on the Texas plot from 1958 to 1965.

The implication of this is that the 150 Gb estimate for Saudi Arabia is probably more accurate than 186 Gb, which puts Saudi Arabia at about 73% depleted, which means that we are really, really screwed. In any case, if you plug in the recent production data, they would fall close to the 150 Gb projection.

IMO, this is not a drill. I think that the crisis is upon us, and I think that it will be worse than most of us have been estimating.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
dissident on March 13, 2007 - 9:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Your analysis is excellent. I see people using every upward deflection of the HL curve as proof that the URR is larger. This is wishful thinking. The system is closed as far as the oil is concerned so there cannot be only positive deflections. You demonstrate that in all likelihood the URR is estimated best by HL data that arises during the normal production regime and not forced transients when production stalling starts to become apparent. These forced production regimes show increased production and delay the peak but they do not create new oil. What you extract faster today, you will have less of tomorrow.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
wstephens on March 13, 2007 - 12:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

upward deflection of the HL

Of course if we had enough HLs for enough fields "deflections" could be studied -- average length, degree of deflection, etc.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
dissident on March 13, 2007 - 8:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It would be nice if some HL curves were shown for truly end-of-output conditions. In the Texas case I expect the HL curve to start heading down in the next few years for a URR below 70 Gbl instead of keeping at its 2006 trend towards a URR higher than 70 Gbl.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
ckaupp on March 13, 2007 - 4:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Now I'm really worried. I already felt your export model was 100% right on and was a stark warning, but if SA is really 73% depleted, we are screwed.

Watching all of the geopolitical jockeying that has been going on the past 5 years amongst the major world players, you can't help but come to the conclusion that something major is up. Before that, gas was cheap, oil wasn't in the news, and there was RELATIVE world peace.

Okay, no rest for the weary. Back to the farm.
Cheryl

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Aniya on March 14, 2007 - 12:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Cheryl,

BTW, I meant to say how much I enjoyed your talking about your gardening success with the neighbor girls. Much support.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
ckaupp on March 15, 2007 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks! We've worked our butts off the past year. Digging holes in lava by hand is no small task. But we've planted more than 50 fruit trees, and in less than one year at least 30% are already productive. We have fresh juice and fruit every morning.

We still have about 50 mac nut trees, so although they are a bitch to crack by hand, we do have a source of oil and essential fatty acids. And when avocados are in season, they can't be eaten fast enough by the whole population here. Most of them rot on the ground.

The vege garden has been out of control and we can't give it away fast enough. My husband keeps joking, "but the seeds are so little." It helps that he has a green thumb. I would never have been able to do this by myself, so hats off to an old man who is willing to do massive amounts of physical labor every day. It was my idea and I made this whole adventure happen both financially and physically and told him he was either with me or without me, but I was packing up and going. Needless to say, he's here.

I figure we will be in a good position when the SHTF, but the biggest worry will be all of the have-nots in the area. We can help some, but not all of them. And as I've mentioned before, while we are working our butts off, most of our neighbors are drinking beer and watching ESPN. The other night the Twilight Zone episode about the bomb shelter and the neighbors who didn't prepare was on. Gave me the willies. There are a lot of retirees here who just don't seem to have a clue--they think they are going to live out there retirement with ease.

I do suspect that when TSHTF, many of the retirees will leave. Right now it is still very easy to fly back and forth to the mainland to see family/friends and get medical care that isn't available here. I think many of the retirees will go back to the continent to be close to family and medical care.

It's of note that the airline industry has had major fuel problems the past few years, with many airports running out of fuel. About 1 year ago, the main island carriers, Aloha and Hawaiian Airlines both cut back dramatically on inter-island flights. It should have been a wakeup call, but it wasn't. Since I'm a former air traffic controller, I kind of follow stuff related to the airline industry. It never ceases to amaze me at how ill-informed most everyone is. Pretty much everyone thinks it is and will forever be "business as usual."

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.