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Fascinating stuff. The world has been running down its stocks to the tune of a million barrels a day for the past five months (if I've got that right). OPEC claims to have substantial spare capacity, but is keeping it in reserve. World production is dead flat (yet China and India are increasing their imports...) Demand has to increase by that million barrels, mechanically, as people stop drawing down their reserves.
So, will we get to test the hypothesis of a Saudi peak in the next few months, or will they get away with masking it due to inadequate demand?
My question for all of you TODer's, is where is the price signal to deal with this? The only answer I've come up with is, the market will deal with this come Wednesday the 20th when the May contract comes up for bidding. Then maybe the market will then consider the petroleum stocks needs for summer driving season.
My speculation, instant pop up to $72.00 on the May spot market this next Wednesday. We'll then see if OPEC and especially Saudi Arabia is willing to cut the 1.7 Mb/day restriction it has self-imposed. By July or August we can then see what production level its willing to support with the taps open. Even with America possibally in recession by the end of the year, I still think Chindia will mop surplus oil then can get their hands on.
There is no such thing as "May spot." May implies the futures market and "spot" implies the spot market which is always "right now". Apologies for being a nitpicker. ;-)
That being said, nothing short of a world shaking event will cause oil prices to go to to $72.00 (either spot or the May contract) by Wednesday.
Perhaps if Saudi announced that they are in terminal decline, or OPEC announced that those vast Middle East reserves are largely fictional...
Ron Patterson
"nothing short of a world shaking event will cause oil prices to go to to $72.00 "
War in the middle east is likely one earth shaking event we will see this year.
The Hezbos, Hamas/Fatah, and Syrians have been very, very busy the past year building tunnels, smuggling weapons, and fortifying their borders with iranian and Russian missile systems to attack Israel on three fronts (meanwhile the the US and Israel are also preparing while playing poker at the UN to appease the rest of the world (("we tried your way")) and backing off from gaza while making faux peaceful overatures to the palastinians...).
tick...tick...tick
Oh Please...
The squalor of millions caged in refugee camps is JUST A DISGUISE for a massive military machine capable of taking on Israel's US-supplied military? The Palestinians have secretely procured attack helicopters, jets and nuclear weapons?
There's a name for this type of bass-ackwards fantasy, something about the dominator feeling weak.
However, if Israel feels compelled to again seize others' territory, then, as it has been shown, they will face problems...
I agree that Israel and the US have been making 'faux-peaceful' overtures for years.
Yes, the Mid-East is a ticking bomb, capable of exploding repeatedly, but we're not being attacked, invaded or occupied. They are.
Sendoilplease thinks all Shiites are satanic monsters unafraid of sending infantry against Israel's estimated 200-nuke arsenal. Of course, he's careful not to mention that secret arsenal, because, like the neocons, his desire for your sons and your tax dollars to be employed exterminating Iran requires public support. If normal Americans understood that Israel is hiding 200 nukes, the great majority of them would say, "hey, that's plenty of deterrent, you dudes don't need our kind of help to survive."
Nice strawman you've built of me in you decrepit, simpleton mind. A neocon... that hurt ;).
Not all of the parties involved are shiite, and not all shiite are radicals, or, "satanic monsters" as you call them.
Who cares how many nukes Israel has, it did not stop the Hezbo's last year and wont stop them in concert with Syria and the gangs of gaza this year (especially with the support of Iran).
As for exterminating Iran - spare my the liberal apologist hyperbole. Just pay attention and watch what happens this year - and then feel free to apologize for your favorite "victims" while ignoring their role in the mess.
"Who cares how many nukes Israel has, it did not stop the Hezbo's last year..."
Typical zionist distortion of history. For a more informed and rational analysis of events last year in and around Greater Israel please see this column by Jonathon Cook, who writes from Nazareth:
Israel's supposedly "defensive" assault on Hizbullah last summer, in which more than 1,000 Lebanese civilians were killed in a massive aerial bombardment that ended with Israel littering the country's south with cluster bombs, was cast in a definitively different light last week by Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17298.htm
Oh godz, now I'm a "zionist" too... (**shudder**)
Look, as much as the apologists would like to pretend otherwise, the Hezbos, hamas, fatah do not want Israel to exist. They are teaming up with Iran and Syria and they will have their "War To Wipe Israel off the map" - likely some time this summer.
Hide behind pseudo "informed and rational analysis" all you want but you are just kidding yourself.
Pick your favorite team (for whatever reason), make your excuses and apologies now in advance, but also make some popcorn and watch from a safe distance if you can.
" Israel's struggle for peace is a sincere one. In fact, Israel desires to live at peace not only with its neighbours, but also and especially with its own Palestinian population, and with Palestinians whose lands its military occupies by force. Israel's desire for peace is not only rhetorical but also substantive and deeply psychological. With few exceptions, prominent Zionist leaders since the inception of colonial Zionism have desired to establish peace with the Palestinians and other Arabs whose lands they slated for colonisation and settlement. The only thing Israel has asked for, and continues to ask for in order to end the state of war with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbours, is that all recognise its right to be a racist state that discriminates by law against Palestinians and other Arabs and grants differential legal rights and privileges to its own Jewish citizens and to all other Jews anywhere. The resistance that the Palestinian people and other Arabs have launched against Israel's right to be a racist state is what continues to stand between Israel and the peace for which it has struggled and to which it has been committed for decades. Indeed, this resistance is nothing less than the "New anti- Semitism"."
The rest of the article at:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article17339.htm
Who said anything about attack helicopters and jets? Are you really that ignorant or just trying to distort the argument to support your cherished view of Hamas and Fatah as innocent victims? Why do you prefer such an ignorant and simpleton view instead of reality? Do you also pretend both Hamas and Fatah recognize Israel and that they do not want it destroyed?
Who is the "we" that are not being attacked? Who is the "we" that uses suicide bombers and fires rockets at deliberatly at civilians during the "cease fire" - and then hides among civilians for protection?
Both sides share blame in the continuing hostilities. My post simply reviewed the reality of what has been happening the past year since the Hezbos made a valiant stand against the IDF.
The trio surrounding Israel have planz of their own. Don't be so gullible. I'm sure they look forward to support from the western anti-semite leftists and cooperation from the media when they stage their "civilian casualties" PR events later this summer.
As for "we're not being attacked" - that depends on who you define as "we" (leftist apologist pansies at a safe distance do not count).
"...something about the dominator feeling weak." Or just plain old paranoia. To speak frankly, Israelis use that paranoia as an excuse to get what they want no matter how nasty..Like confiscating Palastinian lands and filling'em up with Jewish "settlers".
I'm an armchair general too, but digging tunnels and fortifying oneself as preparation to attack something is a non sequitur.
Are suicide bombers and random missile attacks on civilian centers defensive too? After all these years, why now stockpile weapons and build tunnels - including tunnels into Israel?
In any case, as I said in my original post, Both sides are preparing for war. Regardless of which side you favor or make excuses for - for whatever reason-, they are preparing and it's likely to begin this spring/summer.
Nicely put regarding spot versus futures. Too bad everyone on this blog isn't that polite.