Hi All,

Sad to say, but I find this type of article a waste of time.

I thought the idea of TOD was all about the world's energy crisis - how humanity will survive in a post-oil energy decline.

But this political nonsense about creating legislation to funnel vast amounts of money into conglomerate empires to do what small coimmunities should be doing for themselves - I just did not think this was the purpose of this forum. I see this debate is purely focussed on the next elections and finding out which party will support these legislations.

But most important - TOD has fallen for the old mantra - the energy crisis is all about the good old USA!

Let's debate rail 'in the USA'. Let's fix everything 'in the USA'. Let's make Congress 'in the USA' listen to the problem.

Apart from the fact that dear old USA looks like it is well into the opening stages of a 10 year or more recession to rebalance three decades of excess - so no money will be available for these pipe dreams - the US has stopped having the important driving role it once had. That has now moved to German-centric Europe.

Come on USians - think globally. Get out of your parochial pyjamas and get more global in viewpoint.

US has 4.5% of world's population and uses 26% (21.5 MB/D of world's oil output (84 MB/D).
US uses 75% of all oil, domestic & imported, for transportation.
So fixing the US transportation system will solve many of the world's future oil supply problems.

If the dam is leaking, fix the biggest hole first!

US has 4.5% of world's population...fix the biggest hole first

By the time the world spends additional giga-tonnes of the planet's dwindling resources fixing the world's biggest hole, there'll be precious few people anywhere else left to worry about.

Seems there's people who are more worried about saving the 'American Way of Life' than about finding real remedies to a world-wide problem.

This type of story on TOD would not be happening, I'm sure, if you USians weren't beginning another two-year round of insanity called 'presidential elections'.

US uses 75% of all oil, domestic & imported, for transportation

Change lifestyle - don't try to reconstruct your country at the expense of the rest of the planet. Tell the politicians that the American way of life IS negotiable!

Hi Ian,

I support your wanting to address the energy situation in world terms.

How do you suggest we do this?

What problem would you like to address?

re: "...small communities should be doing for themselves..."

Qs: 1) How can a small community construct a workable rail system for both people and goods? I don't see how this would be possible. Do you?

2) OK. Let's assume the American way of life *"is"* negotiable. As you say.
How can it be negotiated, such as people can live? What does transportation look like in the "negotiated US"?

3) What do you think of this: The US puts in place some workable transportation plans for itself. For the "new , negotiated US", as part of an ideal, TOD-devised energy policy. ("Ian's Energy Policy for the world").

(By the way, what is your ideal energy policy for the world?)

What does the US component look like? With such a component in hand, the US can also say: Okay, look...not knowing about "peak", we did the following things. Now we know. Our support for the Oil Depletion Protocol and Alt. Energy Sharing agreement means: US does the following; We share the following tech; We make the following unilateral moves: 1)Sharing R&D on wind/solar/biomass, TOD development.
2) Change/support the following plan for agriculture.
3) Support water-sharing agreements as follows.
4) Stop further RD on nuclear weapons, putting in place bi-lateral agreements.

etc. etc.

Hi Aniya,

You didn't ask how I would:
a) Provide world peace
b) Grant immortality to everyone
c) Exceed the speed of light
d) Invent a portable fusion reactor...

I can't do any of the points you raised. I haven't the slightest idea how it will be done.

What I do know is that a bunch of wild-eyed idealists writing reams of new legislation to be presented to a self-indulgent government structure will achieve nothing except increase the Bureaucracy; waste time; make lucky companies richer; and provide absolutely no relief for the growing problems facing billions of people. It is designed to molify us overfed westerners.

The concept of bringing legislative debate that is essentially about how the US can keep its absurd level of consumption (and that includes my own bloated country) while ignoring the fact that we Westerners are a minority in this world is the exact opposite of what I imagined TOD to be about.

Maintaining the belief that TOD is about peak oil and seeking serious solutions to humanity's incredible dilemma is impossible while allowing political myopics to masquerade their agendas behind the real-world debate of energy depletion.

If this type of charade continues, I think TOD will be no more than a postscript in the next election campaign.

Hi Ian,

First, a smile (intention):
"Provide world peace". This one has not been done, yet. Unlike the other items on your list, it is not entirely outside the realm of physical possibility.

In any case, I'm definitely trying to support what you say here. (Did that come across?)

If you do not have any specific answers you'd like to share (and I'm being completely sincere), then, perhaps a way to
have *the kind of conversation you'd like to have*. I am 100% in favor of this. I'm trying to be helpful.

re:
"Maintaining the belief that TOD is about peak oil and seeking serious solutions to humanity's incredible dilemma is impossible."

Just to clarify...are you saying that seeking serious solutions to humanity's dilemma is impossible?

I am not saying this. I am saying that seeking serious solutions is why I'm here. (That and to learn). If this is what you would also like, then let us work together towards this goal.

Here is something someone who has done some successful environmental organizing told me:

1) Figure out what is it you want to see happen.
2) Figure out who it is that needs to make decisions or do something to bring this about, and exactly what it is he/she/they would need to do.
3) Figure out who he/she/they are influenced by.

Strategize to influence those people.

In other words, what do you want to see happen, in specifics, and strategizing about how to get it done?

This is just one suggestion.

I'm concerned, and I do believe there is much that we can do. Examples are available. Since I've said this three times today, here's a 4th http://www.ashland.or.us/Page.asp?NavID=541

On the side of world solutions, there's Oil Depletion Protocol, there's World social forum, there are perhaps other things. It seems to me there are precedents.
http://www.pugwash.org/

What do you want to do? In a positive sense. Here.

Hi Aniya,

In any case, I'm definitely trying to support what you say here. (Did that come across?)

The positive side of your comment was clear - what I was replying is that I do not have answers - none - not one - except what I am able to achieve in my own life, in my small area of influence, for my immediate family.
What I find humourous is up higher a small debate goes on over whether we need high speed or would slower be sufficient.
The debate misses the point of what will happen soon. Speed of any quantity above self propulsion is just part of this non-negotiable 'lifestyle'.
Who really needs to travel for five hundred or a thousand kilometres in a day?
No-one. No-one on this planet needs to move that far in that short a time.
All the 'speed' debate is simply about maintaining the 'lifestyle' which is a charade.
The whole concept of making legislation for high speed getting-somewhere-devices is to maintain the 'lifestyle'.

What do I want? People with political agendas out of this debate. Then real work can be done.

Hi Ian,

Thanks for responding. If I may continue, with your permission...?

re: "People with political agendas out of this debate. Then real work can be done."

Okay. Here I am. I do not have a political agenda. (I am wondering if politics can be useful, and I think, perhaps, yes, although I do not want to side-track my comment.)

I am here. Perhaps others are as well. I have no political agenda.

My Q: What *is* "...the real work that can be done?"

Can you please describe it?

Or give me a hint? Honestly, 100% sincere. We're here.

Q#2: So, even fixing up Amtrak is not a good thing to do? (Amtrak being what passes for passenger rail, here.)

Q#3: How far does your sphere of influence extend? And what are the things you are doing within this sphere?

HI Aniya:
Q#3: About 50cm - the diameter of my body - though it's more like a tube than a sphere. Re-Practising energy efficiency, self-sufficiency, and patience.
Q#2: Fixing any infrastructure is a good thing, but to do it to maintain an unnecessary lifestyle for a very small sector of humanity rather than change that lifestyle to aid the larger community??? No. The US chose the personal vehicle over the community vehicle, Amtrak upgrades will not change that - and certainly not in time.
Q#1: Hint: I did already: I do not know. All I know is that I can prepare my little area. What I am doing:
Working from home,
Installing (additional) solar water heating,
Re-discovering easy gardening techniques (the arthritis, you know): The Square Foot Garden is my current project,
Ensuring I have the means to ensure that my children (all adults)and only grandchild are safe and secure and nourished,
Contemplating whether solar energy is a viable option,
Reassuring myself that in this country (Aus) we have the best possible hope for the future.
For the USians I feel sorry that they may not be so fortunate.

Again, Aniya, Hi,

So, even fixing up Amtrak is not a good thing to do?

By coincidence, I am just reading Mick Winter's Peak Oil Prep, and I just turned over to page 180, where I read:
Amtrak, such as it is, is the United States' only national passenger railroad system. The network currently has 22,000 miles of routes serving 500 communities...in 46 states...In 2004, more than 25 million passengers used Amtrak. By comparison, in 1916 the United States had 245,000 miles of rail, and in 1920 passenger use peaked with 1.2 billion passengers
Where did all the rail-lines go...gone to freeways every one. When will they ever learn?

The point is to even get back to 1916 standard, you've got to build 223,000 kilometres of new track, plus infrastructure, plus train tens of thousands of personnel. Then, to cater for the growth in the country you've got to add an additional ... amount of track and infrastructure.

So, PO isn't for another half century and the whole country puts in an impossible effort for a system that just isn't wanted by the masses and if your pollies would just see reason...Nah. Won't happen.

After reading what Ian has written, and the responses up to this point, and after, I feel as if Ian's point is not being understood.

Bear with me as what I write may be repetitive.

What I take him as saying is this: your 'lifestyle' is going to have to contract.

Part of this contraction includes not traveling hundreds and hundreds of miles every year ... by train, or by any other means.

If, as Kunstler and others have written, as the cost of oil increases in the face of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with consequent contractions in many aspects of world, national, and local economies, our lives will converge to points closer to where we live. This is likely to mean traveling great distances less frequently, or not at all. If the economy isn't there to support or require traveling long distances, it won't happen. The need for any kind of expanded long-distance modes of travel will dwindle. And long-distance travel will likely become very expensive, esp. air travel.

So I see Ian as talking about reducing demand, reducing demand for energy-intensive activities. The contracting economy is liable to mean more people out of work, or having work which doesn't pay as much as before. This is liable to mean less travel, and probably less of many other things as well.

I see Ian as saying, stop trying to perpetuate a 'lifestyle' that doesn't make sense on a global scale. Six and a half billion people living at the consumption level of Americans, Australians, and citizens of other countries with highly industrialized economies, is impossible. So start thinking about contraction, reducing your consumption, and then reducing your consumption some more. It's tough; we don't want to do it; we don't even want to think about it.

So we think about the supply sides instead.

India has a massive rail transportation netwoork that they are steadily electrifying. Semi-HSR should get close to 2,000 pax-mpg equilavent using new renewable electrical energy.

Given these facts, why give up travel ?

Best Hopes,

Alan

Hello Alan,

Is there any chance you might comment on this part of Ian's comment and quote (below) - at some point, when you have time? I'm interested in your take on it, and your ideas wrt feasiblity. Also my question that follows.

Thanks.

"Amtrak, such as it is, is the United States' only national passenger railroad system. The network currently has 22,000 miles of routes serving 500 communities...in 46 states...In 2004, more than 25 million passengers used Amtrak. By comparison, in 1916 the United States had 245,000 miles of rail, and in 1920 passenger use peaked with 1.2 billion passengers..."
Where did all the rail-lines go...gone to freeways every one. When will they ever learn?

"The point is to even get back to 1916 standard, you've got to build 223,000 kilometres of new track, plus infrastructure, plus train tens of thousands of personnel. Then, to cater for the growth in the country you've got to add an additional ... amount of track and infrastructure."

-------- Also, I'm wondering, in regard to my question about about the "upstream" (electrical-source) aspect of this and similar proposals: Has anyone looked at the question of:
1) how much solar and/or wind capacity would need to be installed to run how much elec. train?
2) and the feasibility of doing on-going maintenance and upgrade w. an electric-only energy supply? (i.e., no oil).

Just wondering.

Ina is one of my "Do not bother to read" psoters. But in response to your question, in 2002 the US had 142,268 miles of freight railroad (plus some pax only miles) and moved FAR more freight by rail in 2002 that we did in 1916. Just not the pax.

The US is the premier success story for rail freight in the world !

http://nationalatlas.gov/articles/transportation/a_freightrr.html

Bets Hopes,

Alan

Thanks, Alan.

I really appreciate your getting back to me, esp. w. the reference.

Sad to say, but I find this type of article a waste of time.

I thought the idea of TOD was all about the world's energy crisis - how humanity will survive in a post-oil energy decline.

Hmmm, I never got that impression. Indeed, the reason there are various TOD sites (NYC, Europe) is because there is plenty of regional interests as well as global commonalities. I've always thought the orginal TOD (this one) was North American biased simply because of origin.

You've also skipped over the idea that as the world's largest user and importer of oil, what the US does to modify its oil use will affect everyone else.

Also, the issue the US has with size/density/rail tractability is true of Canada and somewhat Australia too. Note that on a per capita basis those two countries have energy use very close to that of the US, but at 1/10 the population their totals just don't add up as much.

Finally, as I mentioned below the SYSTEM needs support by the manufacturers and maintenance contractors, which does affect European economies. E.g., light rail components manufactured in Germany. Any truly significant re-engineering of American transport will have plenty of companies from Europe, Japan, and China bidding for business.

Postscript: Although Stuart has done some analysis showing the limited returns (economically) of current mass transit systems, wrt dealing with US automobile use, there really is no other way to move masses of people if you want to live a non-agrarian lifestyle. Without breakthroughs in areas such as very high temperature superconductors (for electric automobiles), or genetically enhanced algal bio-diesel (and the subsequent massive investment in production facilities), the concept of current US (and Canadian) lifestyle will change when oil production has dropped noticeably. In my mind it is not a question of whether the US will need to do a significant rail investment, but only of how (public/private) and when.

So this topic will not go away.

No.
The only question is, Can the US expect the rest of the world continue to subsidise the US so it can 'do a significant rail investment'?

Ian,
"what they all said above" is too trite, but it's kind of what I want to say. The US, in a lot of the ways, is the problem and the solution, and is the most likely to suffer going backwards unless the policy chosen is to secure as much oil as possible around the world...

oh...hmm. I guess that doesn't affect anything or anyone. Yeah, you're right, I'm sorry Jerome posted this. It obviously doesn't matter.

Hi PG,

Thanks for understanding the spirit of my post.

The US...is the most likely to suffer going backwards

The question is, of course, which direction is backwards?

Ian,

This seems to be the way Americans think. Most Americans really have no idea what happens outside the US, even people posting at TOD. They have heard about it, they read about it, but it seems to be very difficult to understand, even with the best intentions. That is a real pity, because the US is by far the richest country in the world and if anybody could help here, it would be the Americans.

The simple fact is that PO is not very difficult to solve. Just raise tax on gasoline a bit and keep raising it every year. And while you're at it, also raise tax on NG, electricity and a few other energy sources. That should do it. You would end the war in Iraq, cool down the nuclear standoff with Iran or end the genocide in Darfur along the way, just as a by-product. Even have a good shot at global warming.

You don't need new technology, no new scientific breaktroughs or 'Manhattan Projects' like this one (another favorite daydream). You can buy a car that runs 50 mpg for less than 10.000 US$. Where is the problem?

The whole world is addicted to oil, but the US seems to have caught a particulary naughty strain of it. It has to do with the 'Non-negotiable' part of the way the US is currently organized.

However, before we start explaining to Americans how to run their own country, we also should look at ourselves. Your name indicates you're from Australia, and Australians have a lifestile which looks very much like the Americans, if not worse. Remember, the US did not sign the Kyoto treaty, but also Australia didn't either. How's that for a good example?

Maybe it's also the other way around. Maybe people outside the US really do not get the way Americans think.

So instead of explaining to eachother what to do, lets fix our own issues first.

Hi Richard,

No argument from me:

Remember, the US did not sign the Kyoto treaty, but also Australia didn't either. How's that for a good example?

It wasn't 'Australia' that didn't sign - it was our politicians. The same type of people who will supposedly use the high speed rail act to solve the world's problems...Hah!

Ian, it's pretty simple. If you don't like what we do here, don't come back or start your own site. Have a lovely day.

Sorry PG,

I hadn't realised yours was a political agenda - I was fooled by the peak oil debates on this site.

Bye.

Thank you for this post.

This kind of doomer trolling is reasonably easy to recognise, and I'm sick and tired of it going unchallenged (which, here, means reasonable attempts to counter their arguments).

>"The boat is leaking here, here, and here. If it keeps leaking, eventually we might even sink. How do you think we should fix it?"
>>"I think we should patch it with silicone sealant"
>>>T: Why are you still boating? Can't you see that by displacing the water, we deserve it? I've got some water wings for myself... I don't think many of us will survive the ocean.
>>I think we should cement fabric over it from the outside
>>>T: But that means swimming outside the boat! Few of us know how to swim. Not worth it. This thread is a waste of time.
>>>>Well what do you suggest?
>>>>>T: I don't have any big solutions. None. I just have these here waterwings.
>>This is gonna be difficult... How about we lean over to one side, and patch that side of the boat while it's out of the water?
>>>T: We'll never have the weight. I don't understand why you're trying to save the boat - Tainter says that as your boat gets bigger, there's more chance for a leak. Jevon says that you keep getting fatter until the boat reaches the waterline. Can't you see that we should grow gills?
>>>> Gills are going to be a bit difficult. Only amphibians and fish have gills.
>>>>>T: classist. You're just too lazy to make functioning gills - and with these other animals learning to walk on land, you'll need them. But no, you won't have them... and by the time anyone's figured out how to fix the boat, you'll all have drowned. You should never have tried displacing water in the first place.

It's really quite cliché after several years of PO discussions.

:)