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You would have thought that someone would have looked the mathematical models and the probability of vastly increased consumption in the exporting countries and then tried to warn us of a rapidly developing oil export crisis.
Well, if one of those mathematical models had been shown to work with some sort of precision, then people would have probably listened. But when you say "Saudi is peaking because the HL is where Texas was when it peaked", and then I show that this was not in fact the case, you followed up with "Regardless, Saudi is still peaking." Then you start looking for data points to try and salvage your prediction, instead of letting the model provide the prediction. You have your modeling exactly backwards in this case.
Let's review here. What about the HL suggests that Saudi has peaked? And do you believe that the HL has the ability to call a peak with less than a 5-year error range? If so, please justify that answer.
Robert most of the bottom up analysis give basically the same result. The most important number from HL is a good estimate of depletion rates I think it gives the best answer for this question. Next it gives good enough of a URR estimate to handle obvious fraud like we have in the ME.
Other information bottom up analysis current events etc can be and should be used to bracket the date of peak down to a single year. As of now I have more faith in the depletion rates from HL than any other method. Look at the slope of your lines not the URR intercept. Picking the right URR needs additional data either via carrying HL out post peak or external information. We must use all the information we have and HL provides critical pieces what I consider the best estimate for depletion rates and a choice of URR's that can be easily limited with other information.
For some reason you have decided to put on blinders.
My god the experts are claiming decades of oil is left even off by 5% its enough to show that the experts are wrong and enough to start a mitigation policy.
Finally again the depletion rate in my opinion is the hardest piece of information to figure out the fact HL provides it is very important. And I've said repeatedly that the peak year prediction is not done with HL alone WT was implicitly using external data if you read his posts I was doing the same I just did not think about it until you wrote your article. I know for a fact I was I suspect anyone that has used HL does.
HL is not sufficient for predicting the year of peak no reason to belabor the point. I'm not sure WT ever made that assertion if so then I think its obvious its wrong.
Robert most of the bottom up analysis give basically the same result.
When you write “basically the same result”, what do you mean? Peak within 10 years? Yes, I would agree with that. But we are being told, again and again, that Saudi peaked in 2005 “as predicted by the HL.” My point is that the HL can’t predict any such thing. It would have predicted a Texas peak in 1956, and you couldn’t have confidently concluded that Texas peaked until 1982 or so. A Saudi peak in 2002 would have been consistent, and a Saudi peak in 2012 would be consistent. This is important. The precision of the method has been vastly oversold.
The most important number from HL is a good estimate of depletion rates I think it gives the best answer for this question.
How so? Tell me mathematically how you pull the depletion rates out of the HL. Recognize that the slope points down even if production is constant. Complicated by that is the fact that URR is moving. So, it is not simply a matter of looking at the slope. It can be done, but I don’t think it is as straightforward as you seem to believe.
Next it gives good enough of a URR estimate to handle obvious fraud like we have in the ME.
The Texas URR has increased by 50%. In my next essay, my hypothesis is that the HL will show that Saudi’s URR is growing, and has grown at a fairly brisk pace in recent years.
For some reason you have decided to put on blinders.
I don’t believe I have any blinders on at all. I am just waiting for someone to define the parameters that are required to predict peak. The parameters at the moment are incredibly broad. So, I look to other factors. I don’t think the HL gives me any useful information at all in the case of Saudi.
HL is not sufficient for predicting the year of peak no reason to belabor the point. I'm not sure WT ever made that assertion if so then I think its obvious its wrong.
Well, I think you might be surprised about that. Even when he appeared on TV to debate the issue, he built his case around the HL. He kept saying that Saudi is right where Texas was when it peaked. So the core of his position is that the HL is the key to determining a Saudi peak. Look back at the essays he has written on it and tell me I am wrong. Show me where he is relying heavily on above-ground factors. Look at the number of times “as predicted by the HL” appears in his arguments. Then you may have a better handle on where I am coming from.
I just had an "aha" moment. I just tested a hypothesis of mine, and think you will be quite surprised at what I just uncovered. It is directly related to something I wrote in the response above, but no hints yet. I want this one to be a surprise. I will try to write this up some time this week.
Next look at Russia right now HL is off by up to 4 years on the date of peak in my opinion and its a tough problem. I think we might be able to tighten it up to the year. If not we have to wait. Right not all I want to know is if no plateau makes sense. Can we maybe maybe not. But no one else is even claiming Russia will peak in the next 4 years. If they even manage to hold production steady for 3 years that makes a big difference IMHO maybe enough to keep our undulating plateau going for a while.