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I think that's exactly what I said (you say 12%, I say 12%), isn't it? I probably did overplay my hand a bit, but if drilling activity drops to nothing, the production will go down somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% - take a look at this (albeit for the US) -
Follow the line downward from 2004 to 2005 (i.e., no drilling), and you find that roughly 20 bcf/d out of the 50 bcf/d has vanished, i.e., 40%. Part 2 of my comment suggests that all these rigs are being dumped into the US just to maintain production, so the loss will still be there.
The most current Canadian numbers I used were EIA, but I'm sure there's a source in Canada that's more up-to-date.
Thanks for posting the chart. I've seen it before, but printed it this time.
I think you might be looking at 2 years... 32% means what it says, look at the slope of the line dividing 05 and 06.
If canada is the same, and if they previously had enough rigs to hold production steady around 6600 bcf, then a loss of 25% rigs will cut yoy production 8%, or around 500bcf. Of course this means that exports will go down this amount plus any increased consumption, and I separately heard that tar sands will soak up at least 300bcf more this year, so I now expect exports down 800bcf, a little less than my earlier guess of 1tcf.
Also worth noting that every year new wells decline at faster rates as we drill into eg tight sands, so even tho production has held steady on account of more rigs drilling more holes the slope is steepening, exlaining why we need more rigs every year. The trend averages 1% higher/y since 1990, but is accelerating, from say .5% higher/y to over 1% higher/y now. IMO we are the coyote that ran off the cliff, and is just now beginning to look down.