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Uninformed lurker warning.
I've found the posts over the last few weeks really fascinating, though was disappointed with the personal nature of the HL discussion. Have a good break Robert. Seems to me the points to be taken from these discussions are:
HL should not be used to predict URR
HL, with informed guesses on URR, may be used to predict peak
There is no situation which will fit HL perfectly, all curves must be worked to fit available data
We do not know the URR of KSA
The decline in output of KSA, combined with increase in drilling, combined with increase in horizontal and advanced drilling techinques are potentially very worrying
Of course, I'm just a lurker, and not as knowledgeable as most of the posters here. But thanks to the Oil Drum for my understanding as it is.
I think that's an excellent summary.