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117 comments on GAO Peak Oil Report Thread

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Leanan on March 29, 2007 - 12:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

And here's the key:

This appendix lists the studies cited in figure 5 of this report.

(a) L.F. Ivanhoe. “ Updated Hubbert Curves Analyze World Oil Supply.” World Oil. Vol. 217 (November 1996): 91-94.

(b) Albert A. Bartlett. “ An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves.” Mathematical Geology. Vol. 32, no.1 (2000).

(c) Kenneth S. Deffeyes. “ World’s Oil Production Peak Reckoned in Near Future.” Oil and Gas Journal. November 11, 2002.

(d) Volvo. Future Fuels for Commercial Vehicles. 2005.

(e) A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari. “ World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-2007.” Oil and Gas Journal. April 26, 2004.

(f) Richard C. Duncan. “ Peak Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge.” Pardee Keynote Symposia. Geological Society of America, Summit 2000.

(g) David L. Greene, Janet L. Hopson, and Jai Li. Running Out Of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Oil Depletion and Transition Through 2050. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Department of Energy, October 2003.

(h) C.J. Campbell. “ Industry Urged to Watch for Regular Oil Production Peaks, Depletion Signals.” Oil and Gas Journal. July 14, 2003.

(i) Merril Lynch. Oil Supply Analysis. October 2005.

(j) Ministére de l’Economie Des Finances et de l’Industrie. L’industrie pétrolière en 2004. 2005.

(k) International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2004. Paris France: 101-103.

(l) Jean Laherrère. Future Oil Supplies. Seminar Center of Energy Conversion, Zurich: 2003.

(m) Peter Gerling, Hilmar Remple, Ulrich Schwartz-Schampera, and Thomas Thielemann. Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources. Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hanover, Germany: 2004.

(n) John D. Edwards. “ Crude Oil and Alternative Energy Production Forecasts for the Twenty-First Century: The End of the Hydrocarbon Era.” American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin. Vol. 81, no. 8 (August 1997).

(o) Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. Worldwide Liquids Capacity Outlook to 2010, Tight Supply or Excess of Riches. May 2005.

(p) John H. Wood, Gary R. Long and David F. Morehouse. Long Term World Oil Supply Scenarios. Energy Information Administration: 2004.

(q) Total. Sharing Our Energies: Corporate Social Responsibility Report 2004.

(r) Shell International. Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050. Global Business Environment: 2001.

(s) Directorate-General for Research Energy. World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook: WETO 2030. European Commission, EUR 20366: 2003.

(t) Exxon Mobil. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030. Corporate Planning. Washington, D.C.: November 2005.

(u) Harry W. Parker. “ Demand, Supply Will Determine When World Oil Output Peaks.” Oil and Gas Journal. February 25, 2002.

(v) M.A. Adelman and Michael C. Lynch. “ Fixed View of Resource Limits Creates Undue Pessimism.” Oil and Gas Journal. April 7, 1997.

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SamuM on March 29, 2007 - 2:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

AFAIK, several of those are note original & independent estimates, but rehashes of each other, based on the same USGS inflated OPEC data.

I think they would have done the estimates section a more truthfully, if they had included only separate, original methodology studies there.

Then again, was truthfulness or "calm down, it's 30+ years away" their goal :)

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kebu77 on March 29, 2007 - 2:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Am I missing something, or has the Lynch 1997 study ("v.") been left off the chart?

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dinopello on March 29, 2007 - 5:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The report has a footnote that the conclusion of study "v" (Lynch) was that timing for peak oil was "unknowable". Kind of hard to put that on the graph!

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Halfin on March 29, 2007 - 2:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Following up on our thread the other day, what if we average these dates? I tried eyeballing and averaging the midpoint of each of the ranges, got about 2024 for the year of the peak. If we take out the two extreme optimistic ones that center at around 2070, that brings the average in to 2019; however that may be a little pessimistic because it is taking estimates of "after 2020" and "after 2030" as just being those dates, 2020 and 2030.

The bottom line is that averaging the experts puts us around the 2020 time frame. Pretty far out compared to most opinions around here, but then this is a self-selected group. You can find similar groups on every controversial issue, convinced that their own opinion is right and insisting that the expert consensus is either mistaken or a case of outright disinformation.

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BrianT on March 29, 2007 - 2:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Halfin: Every day that passes without global crude supply topping the monthly peak set in 2005 lowers the credibility of the distant forecast peaks. IMHO, a Vegas book would give heavy weight to the fact that prices are high and oil supply is stuck at the 85 plateau. These studies quoted have different agendas which have nothing to do with accurately predicting the date of peak oil, which lessens their usefulness, IMHO.

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