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Following up on our thread the other day, what if we average these dates? I tried eyeballing and averaging the midpoint of each of the ranges, got about 2024 for the year of the peak. If we take out the two extreme optimistic ones that center at around 2070, that brings the average in to 2019; however that may be a little pessimistic because it is taking estimates of "after 2020" and "after 2030" as just being those dates, 2020 and 2030.
The bottom line is that averaging the experts puts us around the 2020 time frame. Pretty far out compared to most opinions around here, but then this is a self-selected group. You can find similar groups on every controversial issue, convinced that their own opinion is right and insisting that the expert consensus is either mistaken or a case of outright disinformation.
Halfin: Every day that passes without global crude supply topping the monthly peak set in 2005 lowers the credibility of the distant forecast peaks. IMHO, a Vegas book would give heavy weight to the fact that prices are high and oil supply is stuck at the 85 plateau. These studies quoted have different agendas which have nothing to do with accurately predicting the date of peak oil, which lessens their usefulness, IMHO.