The Oil Drum | GAO Peak Oil Report Thread

117 comments on GAO Peak Oil Report Thread

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Halfin on March 29, 2007 - 3:37pm

Nice work! I'll repeat the reference to the survey paper on the advantages of combining forecasts:

http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~clemen/bio/Published%20Papers/13.Combinin...

Abstract: Considerable literature has accumulated over the years regarding the combination of forecasts. The primary conclusion of this line of research is that forecast accuracy can be substantially improved through the combination of multiple individual forecasts. Furthermore, simple combination methods often work reasonably well relative to more complex combinations.

To me, this clean, simple averaging approach is far more likely to be a good guide to the truth than Stuart's efforts to read the tea leaves of every jog and squiggle in the Saudi production function.

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Sam Foucher on March 30, 2007 - 2:19pm

Thanks for the article, it's a good reference.

Note that the maximum likelihood derived from the pdf above is between 2012 and 2017.

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117 comments on GAO Peak Oil Report Thread

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